RIOT Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+0.59%
Year to Date Return
$6,378.69
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$6,341.57
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.4
30-Day Momentum
37
+11.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.7
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,867
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,341.57
Current Value
$6,378.69
Period P&L
$37.11
Max Drawdown
-51.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
16 /
25
Best Trade
+10.69%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
22.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$566,189.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$37.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$37.11
Gross Return
+0.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.59%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,341.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $12.65 | 502 | $6,347.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.37 | 502 | $6,709.23 | $6,720.58 |
+$361.44 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $14.65 | 458 | $6,709.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.45 | 458 | $7,073.81 | $7,084.69 |
+$364.11 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $15.66 | 452 | $7,078.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.17 | 452 | $6,856.79 | $6,863.17 |
$-221.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $16.37 | 419 | $6,856.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.31 | 419 | $7,251.55 | $7,257.78 |
+$394.61 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.75 | 433 | $7,252.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.97 | 433 | $7,781.01 | $7,786.00 |
+$528.22 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $18.44 | 422 | $7,779.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:20am ET | $17.88 | 422 | $7,545.19 | $7,551.62 |
$-234.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $17.01 | 443 | $7,535.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $17.88 | 443 | $7,920.84 | $7,937.03 |
+$385.41 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 2:25pm ET | $16.60 | 478 | $7,932.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $17.48 | 478 | $8,353.05 | $8,357.67 |
+$420.64 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.98 | 492 | $8,354.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.44 | 492 | $8,086.02 | $8,089.53 |
$-268.14 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $15.79 | 512 | $8,084.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $15.31 | 512 | $7,836.16 | $7,841.21 |
$-248.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.21 | 515 | $7,833.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.05 | 515 | $8,265.75 | $8,273.81 |
+$432.60 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $13.52 | 611 | $8,260.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $14.20 | 611 | $8,679.25 | $8,692.35 |
+$418.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $12.44 | 699 | $8,692.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $12.03 | 699 | $8,412.46 | $8,412.74 |
$-279.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.01 | 600 | $8,406.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.77 | 600 | $8,859.72 | $8,866.46 |
+$453.72 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.90 | 594 | $8,853.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $14.43 | 594 | $8,573.68 | $8,586.57 |
$-279.89 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.76 | 581 | $8,576.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $14.16 | 581 | $8,226.96 | $8,236.81 |
$-349.76 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:10pm ET | $15.75 | 522 | $8,221.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.26 | 522 | $7,965.72 | $7,981.03 |
$-255.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.34 | 488 | $7,976.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.81 | 488 | $7,717.72 | $7,722.39 |
$-258.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.03 | 453 | $7,716.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.49 | 453 | $7,469.97 | $7,475.50 |
$-246.89 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $16.43 | 454 | $7,461.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.92 | 454 | $7,227.68 | $7,241.69 |
$-233.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $16.44 | 440 | $7,231.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.93 | 440 | $7,009.20 | $7,018.96 |
$-222.73 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $14.40 | 487 | $7,012.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $13.95 | 487 | $6,796.08 | $6,802.25 |
$-216.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $14.60 | 466 | $6,801.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.12 | 466 | $6,579.92 | $6,580.90 |
$-221.35 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.99 | 438 | $6,567.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.52 | 438 | $6,358.23 | $6,371.31 |
$-209.58 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.37 | 443 | $6,365.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.49 | 443 | $5,978.28 | $5,983.69 |
$-387.63 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $13.65 | 438 | $5,976.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET | $13.23 | 438 | $5,796.93 | $5,804.11 |
$-179.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.22 | 408 | $5,801.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.98 | 408 | $6,111.84 | $6,114.19 |
+$310.08 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.57 | 419 | $6,104.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $13.98 | 419 | $5,859.71 | $5,869.07 |
$-245.12 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $12.89 | 455 | $5,862.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $12.47 | 455 | $5,671.58 | $5,677.97 |
$-191.10 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.57 | 490 | $5,669.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $12.31 | 490 | $6,031.90 | $6,040.72 |
+$362.75 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $12.60 | 479 | $6,033.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 479 | $5,719.26 | $5,726.97 |
$-313.75 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $13.44 | 426 | $5,726.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $14.12 | 426 | $6,015.12 | $6,015.29 |
+$288.32 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $16.80 | 358 | $6,014.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.98 | 358 | $5,720.84 | $5,721.73 |
$-293.56 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $18.35 | 311 | $5,708.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.58 | 311 | $5,467.38 | $5,480.71 |
$-241.02 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.56 | 331 | $5,479.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.53 | 331 | $5,802.43 | $5,803.44 |
+$322.73 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $17.74 | 327 | $5,800.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $18.67 | 327 | $6,103.46 | $6,106.18 |
+$302.74 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET | $18.57 | 328 | $6,090.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $17.92 | 328 | $5,877.76 | $5,892.98 |
$-213.20 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $18.30 | 322 | $5,892.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.40 | 322 | $5,602.80 | $5,603.18 |
$-289.80 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.33 | 343 | $5,599.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.82 | 343 | $5,426.23 | $5,429.93 |
$-173.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.78 | 323 | $5,421.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.58 | 323 | $6,001.34 | $6,009.72 |
+$579.79 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $18.27 | 328 | $5,992.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.40 | 328 | $6,361.56 | $6,378.69 |
+$368.97 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,378.69
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,621.31
Total Return:
-36.21%