UVXY Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 38 trades in period
+32.37%
Year to Date Return
$13,845.63
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$10,459.47
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
61.7 neutral
20d Trend
+17.9%
5d Trend
+12.1%
EMA20 Dist
+11.8%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
24%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.7/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
21.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 21.4
30-Day Momentum
7
-22.7%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,873
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,459.47
Current Value
$13,845.63
Period P&L
$3,386.15
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
18 /
20
Best Trade
+10.59%
Worst Trade
-15.08%
Avg Trade Return
+0.93%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,064,407.25
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,386.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,386.15
Gross Return
+32.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+32.37%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 UVXY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,459.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 11:20am ET | $35.44 | 292 | $10,347.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $34.31 | 292 | $10,018.52 | $10,025.33 |
$-328.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $34.70 | 288 | $9,993.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.92 | 288 | $10,632.96 | $10,664.75 |
+$639.42 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.23 | 302 | $10,639.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.75 | 302 | $11,702.77 | $11,728.06 |
+$1,063.31 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.12 | 299 | $11,697.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $37.77 | 299 | $11,293.23 | $11,323.30 |
$-404.76 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $34.19 | 331 | $11,315.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $35.93 | 331 | $11,892.90 | $11,900.96 |
+$577.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $35.49 | 335 | $11,889.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.90 | 335 | $12,696.50 | $12,708.31 |
+$807.35 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.33 | 349 | $12,679.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $35.21 | 349 | $12,288.29 | $12,317.43 |
$-390.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $36.69 | 335 | $12,292.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $39.40 | 335 | $13,197.33 | $13,221.93 |
+$904.50 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $38.91 | 339 | $13,190.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $40.86 | 339 | $13,852.39 | $13,883.83 |
+$661.90 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $36.87 | 376 | $13,861.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $35.47 | 376 | $13,336.72 | $13,359.31 |
$-524.52 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:15pm ET | $35.44 | 376 | $13,325.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $37.37 | 376 | $14,051.12 | $14,084.99 |
+$725.68 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $40.03 | 351 | $14,048.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $38.78 | 351 | $13,613.08 | $13,649.29 |
$-435.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $40.25 | 339 | $13,644.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $38.89 | 339 | $13,183.71 | $13,188.55 |
$-460.74 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $39.85 | 330 | $13,150.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.68 | 330 | $12,434.40 | $12,472.45 |
$-716.10 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.42 | 342 | $12,455.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $38.57 | 342 | $13,190.94 | $13,207.75 |
+$735.30 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $39.26 | 336 | $13,191.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.10 | 336 | $14,483.28 | $14,499.77 |
+$1,292.02 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $46.10 | 314 | $14,473.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:50am ET | $44.51 | 314 | $13,976.14 | $14,002.08 |
$-497.69 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $40.16 | 348 | $13,975.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.80 | 348 | $14,894.37 | $14,920.77 |
+$918.69 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $53.01 | 281 | $14,897.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $51.23 | 281 | $14,395.63 | $14,419.19 |
$-501.58 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $43.31 | 332 | $14,378.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $45.89 | 332 | $15,236.31 | $15,276.58 |
+$857.39 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.78 | 319 | $15,241.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $50.21 | 319 | $16,015.40 | $16,050.16 |
+$773.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.48 | 331 | $16,046.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $46.54 | 331 | $15,404.74 | $15,408.02 |
$-642.14 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $44.61 | 345 | $15,389.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.25 | 345 | $16,301.70 | $16,320.30 |
+$912.28 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $52.04 | 313 | $16,288.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 12:45pm ET | $50.45 | 313 | $15,790.85 | $15,822.16 |
$-498.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.58 | 325 | $15,788.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $46.82 | 325 | $15,218.03 | $15,251.65 |
$-570.51 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:40pm ET | $50.35 | 302 | $15,205.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $52.92 | 302 | $15,982.93 | $16,028.88 |
+$777.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $56.42 | 284 | $16,023.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $59.31 | 284 | $16,842.65 | $16,848.22 |
+$819.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.16 | 300 | $16,848.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $54.02 | 300 | $16,206.00 | $16,206.22 |
$-642.00 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:40pm ET | $49.82 | 325 | $16,191.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.10 | 325 | $17,906.98 | $17,921.70 |
+$1,715.48 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.35 | 355 | $17,874.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $48.71 | 355 | $17,292.05 | $17,339.50 |
$-582.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $51.17 | 338 | $17,295.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.46 | 338 | $14,687.79 | $14,731.83 |
$-2,607.67 (-15.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $43.81 | 336 | $14,720.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $42.35 | 336 | $14,228.42 | $14,240.06 |
$-491.77 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $41.01 | 347 | $14,230.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $39.72 | 347 | $13,782.84 | $13,792.47 |
$-447.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.52 | 358 | $13,790.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $37.34 | 358 | $13,367.76 | $13,370.07 |
$-422.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $38.99 | 342 | $13,334.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $40.96 | 342 | $14,008.35 | $14,043.84 |
+$673.77 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $38.81 | 361 | $14,010.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $37.63 | 361 | $13,584.43 | $13,617.86 |
$-425.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $37.37 | 364 | $13,602.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.07 | 364 | $13,129.48 | $13,144.66 |
$-473.20 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $35.77 | 367 | $13,127.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $37.68 | 367 | $13,828.56 | $13,845.63 |
+$700.97 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,845.63
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,845.63
Total Return:
+38.46%