Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:18

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
6.1/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 13.1/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 11.7

30-Day Momentum

2
-8.9%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,854
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,296.84
Current Value
$10,105.44
Period P&L
$808.57
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+6.43%
Worst Trade
-4.56%
Avg Trade Return
+0.71%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$318,249.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$808.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$808.57
Gross Return
+8.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,296.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 11:05am ET $44.41 207 $9,192.87
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.09 207 $9,746.60 $9,778.14 +$553.73
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $46.65 209 $9,749.85
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET $45.17 209 $9,439.49 $9,467.78 $-310.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $46.40 204 $9,465.60
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $48.76 204 $9,946.02 $9,948.20 +$480.42
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $49.42 201 $9,932.42
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $52.42 201 $10,536.42 $10,552.20 +$604.00
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $51.83 203 $10,521.49
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $53.70 203 $10,901.10 $10,931.81 +$379.61
(+3.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.3d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $54.13 201 $10,880.13
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $57.61 201 $11,579.61 $11,631.29 +$699.48
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET $56.33 206 $11,602.95
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET $59.26 206 $12,206.53 $12,234.87 +$603.58
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:25pm ET $60.03 203 $12,186.09
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $58.02 203 $11,778.06 $11,826.84 $-408.03
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $61.11 193 $11,794.23
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET $59.17 193 $11,420.77 $11,453.38 $-373.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $59.51 192 $11,426.88
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $56.80 192 $10,905.60 $10,932.10 $-521.28
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET $58.59 186 $10,897.74
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET $56.68 186 $10,542.48 $10,576.84 $-355.26
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET $57.10 185 $10,564.42
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $55.39 185 $10,247.15 $10,259.56 $-317.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $56.47 181 $10,220.17
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $54.39 181 $9,844.95 $9,884.35 $-375.21
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.40 178 $9,860.31
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $58.51 178 $10,414.78 $10,438.82 +$554.47
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $59.37 175 $10,388.88
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 175 $10,055.50 $10,105.44 $-333.38
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,105.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$105.44
Total Return: +1.05%
Back to Marcus Reversal