Compendium › Professor Mean › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-07 to present • 14 trades in period

-1.59%
Last Month Return
$11,044.57
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$11,222.59
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 12:22:18

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 26.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 26.5

30-Day Momentum

10
-1.9%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,751
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,222.59
Current Value
$11,044.57
Period P&L
$-177.93
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+0.83%
Worst Trade
-2.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
13.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$304,996.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-177.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-177.93
Gross Return
-1.59%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,222.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $304.37 36 $10,957.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $306.31 36 $11,027.16 $11,292.34 +$69.84
(+0.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $314.16 35 $10,995.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET $313.35 35 $10,967.25 $11,263.95 $-28.39
(-0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:30am ET $314.43 35 $11,005.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET $313.68 35 $10,978.97 $11,237.88 $-26.07
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $326.80 34 $11,111.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:30pm ET $327.46 34 $11,133.64 $11,260.49 +$22.61
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 3:35pm ET $329.90 34 $11,216.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET $326.91 34 $11,114.94 $11,158.98 $-101.51
(-0.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $336.36 33 $11,100.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET $333.44 33 $11,003.52 $11,062.46 $-96.52
(-0.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $330.36 33 $10,901.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $330.35 33 $10,901.55 $11,062.13 $-0.33
(-0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET $326.62 33 $10,778.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $317.86 33 $10,489.38 $10,773.05 $-289.08
(-2.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
4.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:20pm ET $314.30 34 $10,686.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $316.58 34 $10,763.89 $10,850.71 +$77.66
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $317.55 34 $10,796.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:25am ET $317.23 34 $10,785.65 $10,839.66 $-11.05
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
20h held
11 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $321.18 33 $10,598.94 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $323.86 33 $10,687.38 $10,928.10 +$88.44
(+0.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
12 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:00am ET $318.41 34 $10,825.94 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $320.90 34 $10,910.49 $11,012.65 +$84.55
(+0.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
13 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:35am ET $315.88 34 $10,739.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 1:25pm ET $315.63 34 $10,731.38 $11,004.11 $-8.54
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
14 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:15am ET $319.82 34 $10,873.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 11:10am ET $321.01 34 $10,914.17 $11,044.57 +$40.46
(+0.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,044.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,044.57
Total Return: +10.45%
Back to Professor Mean