ARM Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
-6.23%
Year to Date Return
$11,483.20
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$12,245.69
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.1/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
25.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 25.6
30-Day Momentum
17
-2.2%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,470
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,245.69
Current Value
$11,483.20
Period P&L
$-762.48
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
25 /
24
Best Trade
+4.32%
Worst Trade
-4.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.12%
Avg Hold Time
7.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,177,318.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-762.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-762.48
Gross Return
-6.23%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.23%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,245.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $115.21 | 106 | $12,212.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $114.85 | 106 | $12,174.10 | $12,207.53 |
$-38.16 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $116.17 | 105 | $12,197.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $116.08 | 105 | $12,188.40 | $12,198.08 |
$-9.45 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $115.21 | 105 | $12,097.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $115.20 | 105 | $12,095.99 | $12,196.73 |
$-1.34 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $112.32 | 108 | $12,130.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $112.74 | 108 | $12,175.92 | $12,242.63 |
+$45.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $110.78 | 110 | $12,186.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $109.59 | 110 | $12,054.90 | $12,111.42 |
$-131.22 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $110.33 | 109 | $12,025.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $108.82 | 109 | $11,860.84 | $11,946.28 |
$-165.14 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $103.91 | 114 | $11,845.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $104.20 | 114 | $11,878.80 | $11,979.34 |
+$33.06 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $105.73 | 113 | $11,947.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $107.40 | 113 | $12,136.20 | $12,168.05 |
+$188.71 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $115.10 | 105 | $12,084.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $113.75 | 105 | $11,943.75 | $12,026.83 |
$-141.23 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $120.64 | 99 | $11,943.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $120.09 | 99 | $11,888.91 | $11,972.67 |
$-54.15 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $115.84 | 103 | $11,931.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $115.76 | 103 | $11,923.28 | $11,964.95 |
$-7.72 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $115.62 | 103 | $11,908.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $115.89 | 103 | $11,936.67 | $11,992.76 |
+$27.81 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $109.22 | 109 | $11,904.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $109.89 | 109 | $11,977.64 | $12,065.42 |
+$72.66 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $105.91 | 113 | $11,967.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $106.43 | 113 | $12,026.03 | $12,123.61 |
+$58.20 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $107.38 | 112 | $12,026.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $106.15 | 112 | $11,888.80 | $11,985.85 |
$-137.76 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $104.01 | 115 | $11,961.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $104.67 | 115 | $12,037.05 | $12,061.75 |
+$75.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $111.63 | 108 | $12,055.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.45 | 108 | $12,576.20 | $12,582.45 |
+$520.70 (+4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.23 | 105 | $12,519.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $122.49 | 105 | $12,861.45 | $12,924.73 |
+$342.28 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $129.08 | 100 | $12,908.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $128.74 | 100 | $12,874.50 | $12,891.23 |
$-33.50 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $123.82 | 104 | $12,876.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $123.14 | 104 | $12,806.56 | $12,821.03 |
$-70.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $128.51 | 99 | $12,722.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.56 | 99 | $12,331.78 | $12,430.32 |
$-390.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $126.54 | 98 | $12,401.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.21 | 98 | $12,074.36 | $12,103.52 |
$-326.80 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $128.00 | 94 | $12,032.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:50pm ET | $128.37 | 94 | $12,066.78 | $12,138.30 |
+$34.78 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $130.63 | 92 | $12,018.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $129.00 | 92 | $11,868.00 | $11,987.88 |
$-150.42 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $126.21 | 94 | $11,863.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $126.84 | 94 | $11,922.96 | $12,047.57 |
+$59.69 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.77 | 101 | $11,995.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $118.39 | 101 | $11,956.89 | $12,008.69 |
$-38.88 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $122.74 | 97 | $11,905.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $124.05 | 97 | $12,032.85 | $12,135.76 |
+$127.07 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $116.36 | 104 | $12,101.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $117.10 | 104 | $12,178.40 | $12,212.72 |
+$76.96 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $120.54 | 101 | $12,175.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.72 | 101 | $12,294.03 | $12,331.71 |
+$118.99 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.75 | 103 | $12,231.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $115.82 | 103 | $11,929.46 | $12,029.92 |
$-301.79 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $115.30 | 104 | $11,991.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $115.56 | 104 | $12,018.24 | $12,056.96 |
+$27.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $125.30 | 96 | $12,028.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $126.22 | 96 | $12,117.60 | $12,145.76 |
+$88.80 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $128.68 | 94 | $12,095.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $125.50 | 94 | $11,796.53 | $11,846.34 |
$-299.42 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $135.65 | 87 | $11,801.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $135.93 | 87 | $11,825.91 | $11,870.26 |
+$23.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $134.58 | 88 | $11,843.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $134.52 | 88 | $11,837.76 | $11,864.99 |
$-5.27 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $156.89 | 75 | $11,766.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $157.56 | 75 | $11,817.00 | $11,915.24 |
+$50.25 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $143.40 | 83 | $11,902.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.43 | 83 | $11,822.10 | $11,835.15 |
$-80.09 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:15am ET | $155.24 | 76 | $11,798.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $154.09 | 76 | $11,710.84 | $11,747.37 |
$-87.78 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $147.10 | 79 | $11,620.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $148.28 | 79 | $11,714.12 | $11,840.59 |
+$93.22 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $148.07 | 79 | $11,697.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $149.35 | 79 | $11,799.04 | $11,942.10 |
+$101.51 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $151.91 | 78 | $11,848.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $150.92 | 78 | $11,771.76 | $11,865.11 |
$-76.99 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $160.14 | 74 | $11,850.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $160.42 | 74 | $11,870.78 | $11,885.53 |
+$20.42 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $162.00 | 73 | $11,826.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $162.22 | 73 | $11,842.06 | $11,901.59 |
+$16.06 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $173.88 | 68 | $11,823.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $175.88 | 68 | $11,959.84 | $12,037.59 |
+$136.00 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $203.38 | 59 | $11,999.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $205.27 | 59 | $12,110.93 | $12,148.88 |
+$111.29 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 54 | $12,122.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $214.25 | 54 | $11,569.50 | $11,595.92 |
$-552.96 (-4.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.07 | 59 | $11,568.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:20am ET | $198.24 | 59 | $11,695.87 | $11,723.65 |
+$127.73 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $211.48 | 55 | $11,631.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $210.57 | 55 | $11,581.35 | $11,673.60 |
$-50.05 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $207.96 | 56 | $11,645.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:10am ET | $204.56 | 56 | $11,455.36 | $11,483.20 |
$-190.40 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,483.20
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,483.20
Total Return:
+14.83%