AXP Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 52 trades in period
+0.13%
Year to Date Return
$11,004.11
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$10,989.55
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
26.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 26.5
30-Day Momentum
10
-1.9%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,367
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,989.55
Current Value
$11,004.11
Period P&L
$14.65
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
28 /
24
Best Trade
+1.18%
Worst Trade
-2.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
7.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,130,244.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$14.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$14.65
Gross Return
+0.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.13%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,989.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $369.17 | 29 | $10,705.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $370.56 | 29 | $10,746.24 | $11,029.78 |
+$40.31 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $381.29 | 28 | $10,675.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $379.01 | 28 | $10,612.24 | $10,966.03 |
$-63.74 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $380.68 | 28 | $10,659.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $379.36 | 28 | $10,622.08 | $10,929.07 |
$-36.96 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $379.74 | 28 | $10,632.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $380.33 | 28 | $10,649.24 | $10,945.66 |
+$16.59 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $358.85 | 30 | $10,765.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $357.83 | 30 | $10,734.90 | $10,915.06 |
$-30.60 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.27 | 30 | $10,658.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $352.60 | 30 | $10,577.85 | $10,834.81 |
$-80.25 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $356.85 | 30 | $10,705.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $357.45 | 30 | $10,723.50 | $10,852.96 |
+$18.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.35 | 30 | $10,720.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $360.68 | 30 | $10,820.40 | $10,952.86 |
+$99.90 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $361.48 | 30 | $10,844.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:15pm ET | $360.16 | 30 | $10,804.80 | $10,913.26 |
$-39.60 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $361.09 | 30 | $10,832.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $361.53 | 30 | $10,845.90 | $10,926.46 |
+$13.20 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $360.01 | 30 | $10,800.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:50pm ET | $360.38 | 30 | $10,811.40 | $10,937.71 |
+$11.25 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $356.70 | 30 | $10,701.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $358.40 | 30 | $10,751.85 | $10,988.56 |
+$50.85 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $350.82 | 31 | $10,875.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $352.62 | 31 | $10,931.22 | $11,044.36 |
+$55.80 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:25pm ET | $350.99 | 31 | $10,880.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $348.55 | 31 | $10,805.05 | $10,968.72 |
$-75.64 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.07 | 31 | $10,883.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $354.89 | 31 | $11,001.44 | $11,086.99 |
+$118.27 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $359.89 | 30 | $10,796.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $360.32 | 30 | $10,809.45 | $11,099.89 |
+$12.90 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $360.37 | 30 | $10,811.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $360.03 | 30 | $10,800.90 | $11,089.69 |
$-10.20 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
24m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:15pm ET | $344.79 | 32 | $11,033.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $345.97 | 32 | $11,071.04 | $11,127.45 |
+$37.76 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.84 | 32 | $11,002.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $342.04 | 32 | $10,945.28 | $11,069.85 |
$-57.60 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $340.73 | 32 | $10,903.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $342.24 | 32 | $10,951.76 | $11,118.09 |
+$48.24 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:15pm ET | $320.17 | 34 | $10,885.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:50pm ET | $321.22 | 34 | $10,921.48 | $11,153.62 |
+$35.53 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $332.28 | 33 | $10,965.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $332.02 | 33 | $10,956.66 | $11,145.04 |
$-8.58 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $307.98 | 36 | $11,087.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $303.20 | 36 | $10,915.20 | $10,972.78 |
$-172.26 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.83 | 36 | $10,866.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $301.57 | 36 | $10,856.52 | $10,963.24 |
$-9.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $311.13 | 35 | $10,889.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $311.53 | 35 | $10,903.55 | $10,977.21 |
+$13.97 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.35 | 36 | $10,704.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $300.85 | 36 | $10,830.42 | $11,103.03 |
+$125.82 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $297.46 | 37 | $11,006.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $298.48 | 37 | $11,043.58 | $11,140.40 |
+$37.37 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $302.61 | 36 | $10,893.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:35pm ET | $302.79 | 36 | $10,900.44 | $11,146.88 |
+$6.48 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $301.33 | 36 | $10,847.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:10pm ET | $301.20 | 36 | $10,843.20 | $11,142.20 |
$-4.68 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $297.01 | 37 | $10,989.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $297.67 | 37 | $11,013.97 | $11,166.80 |
+$24.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $300.85 | 37 | $11,131.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $298.52 | 37 | $11,045.24 | $11,080.59 |
$-86.21 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.26 | 37 | $10,813.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $295.46 | 37 | $10,932.20 | $11,199.36 |
+$118.77 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $294.35 | 38 | $11,185.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $293.93 | 38 | $11,169.34 | $11,183.40 |
$-15.96 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $302.41 | 36 | $10,886.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.23 | 36 | $10,772.46 | $11,069.10 |
$-114.30 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $300.07 | 36 | $10,802.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $300.35 | 36 | $10,812.60 | $11,079.36 |
+$10.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $295.93 | 37 | $10,949.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $297.39 | 37 | $11,003.25 | $11,133.20 |
+$53.84 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $293.88 | 37 | $10,873.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $293.18 | 37 | $10,847.66 | $11,107.30 |
$-25.90 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $300.70 | 36 | $10,825.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $303.05 | 36 | $10,909.98 | $11,191.90 |
+$84.60 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $303.04 | 36 | $10,909.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $303.89 | 36 | $10,940.04 | $11,222.50 |
+$30.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $304.37 | 36 | $10,957.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $306.31 | 36 | $11,027.16 | $11,292.34 |
+$69.84 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.16 | 35 | $10,995.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $313.35 | 35 | $10,967.25 | $11,263.95 |
$-28.39 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $314.43 | 35 | $11,005.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $313.68 | 35 | $10,978.97 | $11,237.88 |
$-26.07 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $326.80 | 34 | $11,111.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $327.46 | 34 | $11,133.64 | $11,260.49 |
+$22.61 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:35pm ET | $329.90 | 34 | $11,216.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $326.91 | 34 | $11,114.94 | $11,158.98 |
$-101.51 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $336.36 | 33 | $11,100.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $333.44 | 33 | $11,003.52 | $11,062.46 |
$-96.52 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $330.36 | 33 | $10,901.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $330.35 | 33 | $10,901.55 | $11,062.13 |
$-0.33 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $326.62 | 33 | $10,778.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $317.86 | 33 | $10,489.38 | $10,773.05 |
$-289.08 (-2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:20pm ET | $314.30 | 34 | $10,686.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $316.58 | 34 | $10,763.89 | $10,850.71 |
+$77.66 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $317.55 | 34 | $10,796.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $317.23 | 34 | $10,785.65 | $10,839.66 |
$-11.05 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $321.18 | 33 | $10,598.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $323.86 | 33 | $10,687.38 | $10,928.10 |
+$88.44 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $318.41 | 34 | $10,825.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $320.90 | 34 | $10,910.49 | $11,012.65 |
+$84.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $315.88 | 34 | $10,739.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $315.63 | 34 | $10,731.38 | $11,004.11 |
$-8.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,004.11
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,004.11
Total Return:
+10.04%