COST Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
-3.05%
Year to Date Return
$10,294.44
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$10,618.55
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
5.2/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
20.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 20.6
30-Day Momentum
14
-0.8%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,604
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,618.55
Current Value
$10,294.44
Period P&L
$-324.11
Max Drawdown
-7.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
28 /
21
Best Trade
+1.03%
Worst Trade
-1.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$972,345.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-324.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$-324.11
Gross Return
-3.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.05%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,618.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:15pm ET | $863.18 | 12 | $10,358.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $855.58 | 12 | $10,266.96 | $10,541.52 |
$-91.14 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $890.16 | 11 | $9,791.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $886.13 | 11 | $9,747.38 | $10,497.14 |
$-44.38 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $925.06 | 11 | $10,175.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $921.40 | 11 | $10,135.40 | $10,456.93 |
$-40.20 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $923.97 | 11 | $10,163.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $925.64 | 11 | $10,181.99 | $10,475.25 |
+$18.31 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $938.33 | 11 | $10,321.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $936.23 | 11 | $10,298.53 | $10,452.13 |
$-23.12 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $953.39 | 10 | $9,533.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $955.34 | 10 | $9,553.40 | $10,471.63 |
+$19.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $955.31 | 10 | $9,553.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $956.85 | 10 | $9,568.50 | $10,487.03 |
+$15.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 2:05pm ET | $964.51 | 10 | $9,645.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $967.95 | 10 | $9,679.49 | $10,521.41 |
+$34.39 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $980.54 | 10 | $9,805.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:00pm ET | $973.99 | 10 | $9,739.90 | $10,455.91 |
$-65.50 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $979.81 | 10 | $9,798.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $981.70 | 10 | $9,817.00 | $10,474.81 |
+$18.90 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $976.62 | 10 | $9,766.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $978.28 | 10 | $9,782.80 | $10,491.41 |
+$16.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $967.73 | 10 | $9,677.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $964.81 | 10 | $9,648.05 | $10,462.21 |
$-29.20 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $952.26 | 10 | $9,522.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $957.93 | 10 | $9,579.30 | $10,518.91 |
+$56.70 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:35am ET | $933.50 | 11 | $10,268.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $934.29 | 11 | $10,277.19 | $10,527.60 |
+$8.69 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $982.92 | 10 | $9,829.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET | $978.06 | 10 | $9,780.60 | $10,479.05 |
$-48.55 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:35pm ET | $982.95 | 10 | $9,829.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $993.09 | 10 | $9,930.85 | $10,580.45 |
+$101.40 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $984.95 | 10 | $9,849.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $994.15 | 10 | $9,941.49 | $10,672.44 |
+$91.99 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $997.01 | 10 | $9,970.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $997.01 | 10 | $9,970.10 | $10,672.44 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $976.17 | 10 | $9,761.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $970.71 | 10 | $9,707.10 | $10,617.84 |
$-54.60 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,012.72 | 10 | $10,127.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,011.63 | 10 | $10,116.30 | $10,606.99 |
$-10.85 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $993.76 | 10 | $9,937.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $989.38 | 10 | $9,893.80 | $10,563.19 |
$-43.80 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $983.36 | 10 | $9,833.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $984.70 | 10 | $9,846.95 | $10,576.54 |
+$13.35 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:10pm ET | $992.53 | 10 | $9,925.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:50pm ET | $994.81 | 10 | $9,948.10 | $10,599.34 |
+$22.80 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $986.39 | 10 | $9,863.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $988.47 | 10 | $9,884.74 | $10,620.23 |
+$20.89 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:45pm ET | $998.70 | 10 | $9,987.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1,001.43 | 10 | $10,014.30 | $10,647.51 |
+$27.28 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1,009.35 | 10 | $10,093.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,010.83 | 10 | $10,108.30 | $10,662.31 |
+$14.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $996.50 | 10 | $9,965.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $983.48 | 10 | $9,834.80 | $10,532.11 |
$-130.20 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $996.13 | 10 | $9,961.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $995.40 | 10 | $9,953.95 | $10,524.81 |
$-7.30 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $1,003.18 | 10 | $10,031.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $992.65 | 10 | $9,926.50 | $10,419.49 |
$-105.32 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $1,005.20 | 10 | $10,052.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,007.80 | 10 | $10,078.00 | $10,445.49 |
+$26.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,004.70 | 10 | $10,046.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $990.64 | 10 | $9,906.40 | $10,304.94 |
$-140.55 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $976.49 | 10 | $9,764.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 12:15pm ET | $975.34 | 10 | $9,753.45 | $10,293.44 |
$-11.50 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $976.52 | 10 | $9,765.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $977.75 | 10 | $9,777.50 | $10,305.79 |
+$12.35 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $962.41 | 10 | $9,624.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $969.86 | 10 | $9,698.65 | $10,380.34 |
+$74.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $975.53 | 10 | $9,755.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $976.29 | 10 | $9,762.90 | $10,387.94 |
+$7.60 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $983.15 | 10 | $9,831.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:00pm ET | $983.18 | 10 | $9,831.80 | $10,388.24 |
+$0.30 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:15pm ET | $994.75 | 10 | $9,947.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $997.57 | 10 | $9,975.70 | $10,416.44 |
+$28.20 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,017.96 | 10 | $10,179.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,015.35 | 10 | $10,153.50 | $10,390.34 |
$-26.10 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,032.76 | 10 | $10,327.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1,034.01 | 10 | $10,340.10 | $10,402.89 |
+$12.55 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $993.69 | 10 | $9,936.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $983.58 | 10 | $9,835.80 | $10,301.76 |
$-101.13 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $970.03 | 10 | $9,700.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $974.34 | 10 | $9,743.39 | $10,344.84 |
+$43.08 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $987.06 | 10 | $9,870.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $988.05 | 10 | $9,880.50 | $10,354.74 |
+$9.90 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $1,000.64 | 10 | $10,006.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $989.47 | 10 | $9,894.70 | $10,243.04 |
$-111.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,005.78 | 10 | $10,057.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,006.17 | 10 | $10,061.70 | $10,246.94 |
+$3.90 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,003.34 | 10 | $10,033.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,011.35 | 10 | $10,113.50 | $10,327.04 |
+$80.10 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $1,005.10 | 10 | $10,051.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1,006.65 | 10 | $10,066.50 | $10,342.54 |
+$15.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $992.00 | 10 | $9,920.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:10pm ET | $991.51 | 10 | $9,915.10 | $10,337.64 |
$-4.90 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,012.26 | 10 | $10,122.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1,011.26 | 10 | $10,112.60 | $10,327.64 |
$-10.00 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,000.13 | 10 | $10,001.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $996.81 | 10 | $9,968.10 | $10,294.44 |
$-33.20 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,294.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$294.44
Total Return:
+2.94%