GLD Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
-7.60%
Year to Date Return
$9,216.06
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$9,974.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
48.3 neutral
20d Trend
+3.5%
5d Trend
-2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.0%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
51%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.1/10
Raw Quality
10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.0
30-Day Momentum
10
-1.4%
30d Return
31%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,974.20
Current Value
$9,216.06
Period P&L
$-758.15
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
26 /
25
Best Trade
+0.80%
Worst Trade
-6.29%
Avg Trade Return
-0.15%
Avg Hold Time
4.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$967,922.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-758.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-758.15
Gross Return
-7.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 GLD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,974.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $396.92 | 25 | $9,923.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $397.28 | 25 | $9,932.00 | $9,983.21 |
+$9.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:05pm ET | $407.95 | 24 | $9,790.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $408.71 | 24 | $9,809.04 | $10,001.45 |
+$18.24 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:30pm ET | $411.79 | 24 | $9,882.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:00pm ET | $412.26 | 24 | $9,894.24 | $10,012.73 |
+$11.28 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.29 | 24 | $9,774.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $408.85 | 24 | $9,812.40 | $10,050.17 |
+$37.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $413.85 | 24 | $9,932.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $412.52 | 24 | $9,900.53 | $10,018.30 |
$-31.87 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $423.71 | 23 | $9,745.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $423.18 | 23 | $9,733.14 | $10,006.11 |
$-12.19 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 1:15pm ET | $421.60 | 23 | $9,696.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $422.94 | 23 | $9,727.62 | $10,036.93 |
+$30.82 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $425.71 | 23 | $9,791.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $423.50 | 23 | $9,740.50 | $9,986.10 |
$-50.83 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $421.87 | 23 | $9,703.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $419.68 | 23 | $9,652.64 | $9,935.73 |
$-50.37 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $436.62 | 22 | $9,605.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $437.31 | 22 | $9,620.82 | $9,950.91 |
+$15.18 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $456.93 | 21 | $9,595.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $456.50 | 21 | $9,586.50 | $9,941.88 |
$-9.03 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $466.38 | 21 | $9,793.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $464.19 | 21 | $9,748.06 | $9,895.96 |
$-45.92 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $484.75 | 20 | $9,695.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $486.93 | 20 | $9,738.60 | $9,939.56 |
+$43.60 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $487.64 | 20 | $9,752.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:20pm ET | $489.17 | 20 | $9,783.40 | $9,970.16 |
+$30.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $447.02 | 22 | $9,834.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $437.58 | 22 | $9,626.65 | $9,762.48 |
$-207.68 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $452.40 | 21 | $9,500.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $452.75 | 21 | $9,507.75 | $9,769.91 |
+$7.43 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $443.18 | 22 | $9,749.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $444.61 | 22 | $9,781.31 | $9,801.26 |
+$31.35 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $454.20 | 21 | $9,538.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $455.35 | 21 | $9,562.35 | $9,825.41 |
+$24.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $465.23 | 21 | $9,769.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $464.70 | 21 | $9,758.60 | $9,814.17 |
$-11.24 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $449.92 | 21 | $9,448.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $448.31 | 21 | $9,414.51 | $9,780.36 |
$-33.81 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $458.77 | 21 | $9,634.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $458.99 | 21 | $9,638.79 | $9,784.98 |
+$4.62 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $469.94 | 20 | $9,398.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $473.39 | 20 | $9,467.90 | $9,854.08 |
+$69.10 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:10pm ET | $477.29 | 20 | $9,545.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $478.45 | 20 | $9,569.00 | $9,877.28 |
+$23.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $485.17 | 20 | $9,703.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $487.32 | 20 | $9,746.30 | $9,920.08 |
+$42.80 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $465.64 | 21 | $9,778.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $468.44 | 21 | $9,837.24 | $9,978.98 |
+$58.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $470.28 | 21 | $9,875.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $468.79 | 21 | $9,844.59 | $9,947.69 |
$-31.29 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $470.95 | 21 | $9,889.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $472.55 | 21 | $9,923.45 | $9,981.19 |
+$33.50 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $479.81 | 20 | $9,596.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $478.31 | 20 | $9,566.20 | $9,951.19 |
$-30.00 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $474.72 | 20 | $9,494.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $471.52 | 20 | $9,430.50 | $9,887.29 |
$-63.90 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:35pm ET | $462.31 | 21 | $9,708.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $462.15 | 21 | $9,705.15 | $9,883.93 |
$-3.36 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $459.06 | 21 | $9,640.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $459.77 | 21 | $9,655.17 | $9,898.84 |
+$14.91 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $448.21 | 22 | $9,860.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $420.00 | 22 | $9,240.00 | $9,278.22 |
$-620.62 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $421.46 | 22 | $9,272.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $419.75 | 22 | $9,234.50 | $9,240.60 |
$-37.62 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.75 | 23 | $9,217.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $403.95 | 23 | $9,290.85 | $9,314.20 |
+$73.60 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:10pm ET | $417.69 | 22 | $9,189.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $418.35 | 22 | $9,203.70 | $9,328.72 |
+$14.52 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $414.08 | 22 | $9,109.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:20pm ET | $414.19 | 22 | $9,112.18 | $9,331.14 |
+$2.42 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $413.14 | 22 | $9,089.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $414.26 | 22 | $9,113.72 | $9,355.78 |
+$24.64 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $437.87 | 21 | $9,195.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $437.29 | 21 | $9,183.09 | $9,343.60 |
$-12.18 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $427.60 | 21 | $8,979.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $427.95 | 21 | $8,987.05 | $9,351.05 |
+$7.45 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $435.67 | 21 | $9,149.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $433.86 | 21 | $9,111.06 | $9,313.04 |
$-38.01 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $436.48 | 21 | $9,166.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $437.52 | 21 | $9,187.92 | $9,334.88 |
+$21.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $442.73 | 21 | $9,297.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $441.55 | 21 | $9,272.55 | $9,310.10 |
$-24.78 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $440.01 | 21 | $9,240.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $439.85 | 21 | $9,236.85 | $9,306.85 |
$-3.25 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $443.08 | 21 | $9,304.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $441.16 | 21 | $9,264.36 | $9,266.50 |
$-40.35 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $433.61 | 21 | $9,105.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:45pm ET | $433.32 | 21 | $9,099.72 | $9,260.41 |
$-6.09 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $433.73 | 21 | $9,108.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $434.41 | 21 | $9,122.61 | $9,274.69 |
+$14.28 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $431.63 | 21 | $9,064.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $429.46 | 21 | $9,018.66 | $9,229.12 |
$-45.57 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.63 | 22 | $9,165.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $416.17 | 22 | $9,155.63 | $9,218.89 |
$-10.23 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $422.88 | 21 | $8,880.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $423.71 | 21 | $8,897.91 | $9,236.32 |
+$17.43 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $425.17 | 21 | $8,928.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $424.86 | 21 | $8,922.06 | $9,229.81 |
$-6.51 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:00pm ET | $419.39 | 22 | $9,226.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $418.77 | 22 | $9,212.94 | $9,216.06 |
$-13.75 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,216.06
Net Profit/Loss:
$-783.94
Total Return:
-7.84%