HD Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 53 trades in period
-4.51%
Year to Date Return
$10,010.39
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,483.07
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
12.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 12.2
30-Day Momentum
51
+2.2%
30d Return
92%
Win Rate
13
Trades
8.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,306
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,483.07
Current Value
$10,010.39
Period P&L
$-472.66
Max Drawdown
-5.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
32 /
21
Best Trade
+1.02%
Worst Trade
-1.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,067,034.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-472.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-472.66
Gross Return
-4.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.51%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,483.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:00pm ET | $345.38 | 30 | $10,361.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $344.54 | 30 | $10,336.20 | $10,484.86 |
$-25.05 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $344.98 | 30 | $10,349.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $345.40 | 30 | $10,362.00 | $10,497.61 |
+$12.75 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:55pm ET | $352.31 | 29 | $10,216.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $351.17 | 29 | $10,183.93 | $10,464.69 |
$-32.91 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $359.81 | 29 | $10,434.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.79 | 29 | $10,520.91 | $10,551.11 |
+$86.42 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.51 | 28 | $10,374.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $374.30 | 28 | $10,480.40 | $10,657.37 |
+$106.26 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $375.53 | 28 | $10,514.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $378.04 | 28 | $10,585.12 | $10,727.65 |
+$70.28 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $377.25 | 28 | $10,563.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $378.23 | 28 | $10,590.44 | $10,755.09 |
+$27.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $378.95 | 28 | $10,610.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $380.31 | 28 | $10,648.68 | $10,793.17 |
+$38.08 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $379.81 | 28 | $10,634.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:20pm ET | $380.91 | 28 | $10,665.34 | $10,823.83 |
+$30.66 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:05pm ET | $383.02 | 28 | $10,724.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:35pm ET | $384.07 | 28 | $10,753.96 | $10,853.37 |
+$29.54 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.79 | 28 | $10,746.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $382.83 | 28 | $10,719.24 | $10,826.49 |
$-26.88 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $377.83 | 28 | $10,579.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:35pm ET | $374.47 | 28 | $10,485.16 | $10,732.55 |
$-93.94 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $371.10 | 28 | $10,390.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:00pm ET | $372.08 | 28 | $10,418.10 | $10,759.99 |
+$27.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:55pm ET | $380.24 | 28 | $10,646.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $381.43 | 28 | $10,680.04 | $10,793.31 |
+$33.32 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.47 | 28 | $10,793.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $383.50 | 28 | $10,738.00 | $10,738.15 |
$-55.16 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $383.73 | 27 | $10,360.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $384.75 | 27 | $10,388.25 | $10,765.56 |
+$27.41 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $389.08 | 27 | $10,505.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.37 | 27 | $10,377.99 | $10,638.39 |
$-127.17 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $388.19 | 27 | $10,481.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $384.11 | 27 | $10,370.97 | $10,528.23 |
$-110.16 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $383.14 | 27 | $10,344.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 12:05pm ET | $384.02 | 27 | $10,368.54 | $10,551.86 |
+$23.63 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:30pm ET | $378.84 | 27 | $10,228.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:10pm ET | $379.28 | 27 | $10,240.56 | $10,563.74 |
+$11.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $379.65 | 27 | $10,250.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $375.81 | 27 | $10,146.87 | $10,460.06 |
$-103.68 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $386.16 | 27 | $10,426.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:55pm ET | $385.42 | 27 | $10,406.34 | $10,440.08 |
$-19.98 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $376.56 | 27 | $10,167.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $376.47 | 27 | $10,164.69 | $10,437.65 |
$-2.43 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.97 | 27 | $10,124.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $370.41 | 27 | $10,001.14 | $10,314.60 |
$-123.05 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $365.10 | 28 | $10,222.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $362.10 | 28 | $10,138.80 | $10,230.74 |
$-83.86 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $368.24 | 27 | $9,942.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $369.45 | 27 | $9,975.15 | $10,263.28 |
+$32.54 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.00 | 28 | $9,996.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $356.93 | 28 | $9,994.04 | $10,261.32 |
$-1.96 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $357.64 | 28 | $10,014.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.13 | 28 | $9,943.75 | $10,191.01 |
$-70.31 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.21 | 29 | $10,040.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $342.27 | 29 | $9,925.83 | $10,076.75 |
$-114.26 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $339.37 | 29 | $9,841.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:35pm ET | $339.93 | 29 | $9,858.11 | $10,093.13 |
+$16.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $341.63 | 29 | $9,907.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $342.08 | 29 | $9,920.18 | $10,106.04 |
+$12.91 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $332.45 | 30 | $9,973.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $326.72 | 30 | $9,801.60 | $9,934.06 |
$-171.98 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $322.09 | 30 | $9,662.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $321.11 | 30 | $9,633.30 | $9,904.60 |
$-29.46 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $331.92 | 29 | $9,625.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.94 | 29 | $9,452.26 | $9,731.18 |
$-173.42 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $327.58 | 29 | $9,499.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $330.27 | 29 | $9,577.97 | $9,809.48 |
+$78.30 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $330.95 | 29 | $9,597.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:05pm ET | $328.08 | 29 | $9,514.46 | $9,726.39 |
$-83.09 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $322.64 | 30 | $9,679.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $321.67 | 30 | $9,650.25 | $9,697.29 |
$-29.10 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET | $326.50 | 29 | $9,468.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:25pm ET | $327.73 | 29 | $9,504.17 | $9,732.96 |
+$35.67 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $323.55 | 30 | $9,706.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $323.73 | 30 | $9,711.75 | $9,738.21 |
+$5.25 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $324.38 | 30 | $9,731.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $324.55 | 30 | $9,736.50 | $9,743.31 |
+$5.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $316.45 | 30 | $9,493.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $317.02 | 30 | $9,510.60 | $9,760.36 |
+$17.05 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.64 | 29 | $9,617.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $332.97 | 29 | $9,656.08 | $9,799.02 |
+$38.66 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $336.36 | 29 | $9,754.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $336.67 | 29 | $9,763.43 | $9,808.16 |
+$9.14 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $341.06 | 28 | $9,549.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $341.73 | 28 | $9,568.30 | $9,826.85 |
+$18.69 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $345.15 | 28 | $9,664.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $346.61 | 28 | $9,705.08 | $9,867.73 |
+$40.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $345.23 | 28 | $9,666.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $344.52 | 28 | $9,646.50 | $9,847.79 |
$-19.94 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $338.04 | 29 | $9,803.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $338.73 | 29 | $9,823.17 | $9,867.80 |
+$20.01 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.32 | 29 | $9,811.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $338.92 | 29 | $9,828.66 | $9,885.18 |
+$17.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $333.86 | 29 | $9,681.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $334.16 | 29 | $9,690.64 | $9,893.88 |
+$8.70 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $327.44 | 30 | $9,823.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $328.24 | 30 | $9,847.35 | $9,918.03 |
+$24.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $326.02 | 30 | $9,780.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $326.85 | 30 | $9,805.50 | $9,942.93 |
+$24.90 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $324.14 | 30 | $9,724.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $324.41 | 30 | $9,732.30 | $9,951.03 |
+$8.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $311.61 | 31 | $9,659.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $313.52 | 31 | $9,719.12 | $10,010.39 |
+$59.36 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,010.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10.39
Total Return:
+0.10%