IBM Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
-3.67%
Year to Date Return
$10,468.20
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$10,867.62
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
6.4/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
21.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 21.4
30-Day Momentum
30
+1.5%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 31.2
Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,828
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,867.62
Current Value
$10,468.20
Period P&L
$-399.38
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
28 /
20
Best Trade
+1.97%
Worst Trade
-2.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
2.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$994,333.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-399.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-399.38
Gross Return
-3.67%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.67%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,867.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $289.68 | 37 | $10,717.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $290.20 | 37 | $10,737.22 | $10,886.84 |
+$19.24 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $295.28 | 36 | $10,630.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $296.14 | 36 | $10,661.04 | $10,917.80 |
+$30.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $300.93 | 36 | $10,833.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $300.75 | 36 | $10,827.00 | $10,911.24 |
$-6.55 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:00pm ET | $301.41 | 36 | $10,850.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $301.71 | 36 | $10,861.56 | $10,922.04 |
+$10.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.39 | 36 | $10,886.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $302.04 | 36 | $10,873.26 | $10,909.26 |
$-12.78 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $310.50 | 35 | $10,867.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $308.93 | 35 | $10,812.55 | $10,854.31 |
$-54.95 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $305.71 | 35 | $10,699.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $303.14 | 35 | $10,609.73 | $10,764.19 |
$-90.12 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.60 | 36 | $10,713.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $295.30 | 36 | $10,630.80 | $10,681.39 |
$-82.80 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $294.94 | 36 | $10,617.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $295.70 | 36 | $10,645.20 | $10,708.93 |
+$27.54 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:15pm ET | $296.42 | 36 | $10,671.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $293.05 | 36 | $10,549.62 | $10,587.43 |
$-121.50 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $295.54 | 35 | $10,343.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $296.38 | 35 | $10,373.30 | $10,616.83 |
+$29.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $292.43 | 36 | $10,527.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:25am ET | $293.66 | 36 | $10,571.76 | $10,661.11 |
+$44.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $309.75 | 34 | $10,531.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:00pm ET | $305.82 | 34 | $10,397.71 | $10,527.49 |
$-133.62 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:25pm ET | $314.20 | 33 | $10,368.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.51 | 33 | $10,147.83 | $10,306.72 |
$-220.77 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $283.43 | 36 | $10,203.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $285.89 | 36 | $10,292.22 | $10,395.46 |
+$88.74 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.77 | 35 | $10,246.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $294.32 | 35 | $10,301.03 | $10,449.53 |
+$54.08 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $293.44 | 35 | $10,270.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $292.37 | 35 | $10,232.95 | $10,412.08 |
$-37.45 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.23 | 40 | $10,409.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $257.30 | 40 | $10,292.00 | $10,294.88 |
$-117.20 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $259.59 | 39 | $10,124.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $259.76 | 39 | $10,130.64 | $10,301.51 |
+$6.63 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.16 | 40 | $10,206.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $256.05 | 40 | $10,242.00 | $10,337.21 |
+$35.70 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $245.69 | 42 | $10,318.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $246.26 | 42 | $10,343.13 | $10,361.36 |
+$24.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:10pm ET | $237.20 | 43 | $10,199.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $238.47 | 43 | $10,254.21 | $10,415.97 |
+$54.61 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $237.49 | 43 | $10,212.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $237.40 | 43 | $10,208.20 | $10,411.88 |
$-4.09 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $237.89 | 43 | $10,229.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $239.21 | 43 | $10,286.03 | $10,468.64 |
+$56.76 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.84 | 40 | $10,233.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $256.19 | 40 | $10,247.60 | $10,482.64 |
+$14.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $250.12 | 41 | $10,254.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $250.50 | 41 | $10,270.50 | $10,498.22 |
+$15.58 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.25 | 42 | $10,384.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $248.74 | 42 | $10,447.08 | $10,560.80 |
+$62.58 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.14 | 41 | $10,419.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $256.20 | 41 | $10,504.20 | $10,645.26 |
+$84.46 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $245.92 | 43 | $10,574.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $246.88 | 43 | $10,615.63 | $10,686.33 |
+$41.07 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.41 | 43 | $10,552.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $240.34 | 43 | $10,334.62 | $10,468.32 |
$-218.01 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $240.81 | 43 | $10,354.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $241.56 | 43 | $10,387.08 | $10,500.57 |
+$32.25 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:25pm ET | $241.95 | 43 | $10,403.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $238.65 | 43 | $10,261.95 | $10,358.88 |
$-141.69 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $238.13 | 43 | $10,239.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $237.37 | 43 | $10,206.70 | $10,326.20 |
$-32.68 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:20pm ET | $243.87 | 42 | $10,242.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $244.18 | 42 | $10,255.77 | $10,339.47 |
+$13.27 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $246.20 | 41 | $10,094.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $245.43 | 41 | $10,062.63 | $10,307.90 |
$-31.57 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $242.69 | 42 | $10,192.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $244.63 | 42 | $10,274.67 | $10,389.59 |
+$81.69 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $239.78 | 43 | $10,310.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $235.96 | 43 | $10,146.13 | $10,225.18 |
$-164.41 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $231.16 | 44 | $10,171.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $231.33 | 44 | $10,178.52 | $10,232.66 |
+$7.48 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $239.77 | 42 | $10,070.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $239.63 | 42 | $10,064.25 | $10,226.57 |
$-6.09 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET | $249.95 | 40 | $9,997.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $250.43 | 40 | $10,017.40 | $10,246.17 |
+$19.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $252.16 | 40 | $10,086.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $253.76 | 40 | $10,150.20 | $10,309.97 |
+$63.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $252.40 | 40 | $10,096.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $249.51 | 40 | $9,980.60 | $10,194.57 |
$-115.40 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $227.53 | 44 | $10,011.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $228.52 | 44 | $10,055.10 | $10,238.35 |
+$43.78 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:45pm ET | $227.61 | 44 | $10,014.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $228.05 | 44 | $10,034.21 | $10,257.72 |
+$19.37 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.61 | 44 | $10,146.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $230.01 | 44 | $10,120.66 | $10,231.54 |
$-26.18 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $230.46 | 44 | $10,140.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.00 | 44 | $10,340.00 | $10,431.08 |
+$199.54 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $231.13 | 45 | $10,400.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $232.44 | 45 | $10,459.80 | $10,490.03 |
+$58.95 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.73 | 45 | $10,292.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $228.24 | 45 | $10,271.02 | $10,468.20 |
$-21.83 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,468.20
Net Profit/Loss:
+$468.20
Total Return:
+4.68%