ISRG Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+0.93%
Year to Date Return
$12,540.04
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$12,424.54
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.0/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
33.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.0
30-Day Momentum
16
-2.1%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.9
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,188
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,424.54
Current Value
$12,540.04
Period P&L
$115.49
Max Drawdown
-17.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
28 /
22
Best Trade
+2.08%
Worst Trade
-2.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
3.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,230,427.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$115.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$115.49
Gross Return
+0.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,424.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:55pm ET | $556.32 | 22 | $12,239.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $557.54 | 22 | $12,265.88 | $12,451.38 |
+$26.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $564.03 | 22 | $12,408.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $565.72 | 22 | $12,445.84 | $12,488.56 |
+$37.18 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:15pm ET | $597.23 | 20 | $11,944.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $587.58 | 20 | $11,751.60 | $12,295.56 |
$-193.00 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $582.95 | 21 | $12,241.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $583.16 | 21 | $12,246.36 | $12,299.97 |
+$4.41 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $570.41 | 21 | $11,978.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $564.79 | 21 | $11,860.59 | $12,181.95 |
$-118.02 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $543.45 | 22 | $11,955.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $538.57 | 22 | $11,848.54 | $12,074.70 |
$-107.25 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $534.51 | 22 | $11,759.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $534.35 | 22 | $11,755.70 | $12,071.18 |
$-3.52 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $524.39 | 23 | $12,060.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $526.95 | 23 | $12,119.85 | $12,130.06 |
+$58.88 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $529.61 | 22 | $11,651.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $528.35 | 22 | $11,623.70 | $12,102.34 |
$-27.72 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $520.71 | 23 | $11,976.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $524.59 | 23 | $12,065.57 | $12,191.58 |
+$89.24 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $526.94 | 23 | $12,119.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $530.33 | 23 | $12,197.48 | $12,269.55 |
+$77.97 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $523.64 | 23 | $12,043.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $523.53 | 23 | $12,041.19 | $12,267.14 |
$-2.42 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $503.96 | 24 | $12,095.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $504.34 | 24 | $12,104.16 | $12,276.26 |
+$9.12 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $503.60 | 24 | $12,086.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $504.99 | 24 | $12,119.76 | $12,309.62 |
+$33.36 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $493.77 | 24 | $11,850.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $497.52 | 24 | $11,940.54 | $12,399.68 |
+$90.06 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $466.44 | 26 | $12,127.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $476.12 | 26 | $12,379.17 | $12,651.41 |
+$251.73 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $481.96 | 26 | $12,530.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $480.05 | 26 | $12,481.30 | $12,601.75 |
$-49.66 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $490.68 | 25 | $12,267.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $492.11 | 25 | $12,302.75 | $12,637.50 |
+$35.75 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $495.48 | 25 | $12,386.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $493.39 | 25 | $12,334.75 | $12,585.38 |
$-52.12 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $492.00 | 25 | $12,300.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $494.50 | 25 | $12,362.50 | $12,647.88 |
+$62.50 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $496.84 | 25 | $12,421.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $498.61 | 25 | $12,465.25 | $12,692.13 |
+$44.25 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.00 | 25 | $12,500.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.48 | 25 | $12,411.88 | $12,604.01 |
$-88.12 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $489.25 | 25 | $12,231.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $492.36 | 25 | $12,309.12 | $12,681.88 |
+$77.87 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $499.71 | 25 | $12,492.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $501.45 | 25 | $12,536.37 | $12,725.50 |
+$43.62 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $490.45 | 25 | $12,261.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $490.44 | 25 | $12,261.00 | $12,725.25 |
$-0.25 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $502.49 | 25 | $12,562.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $502.01 | 25 | $12,550.25 | $12,713.25 |
$-12.00 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $485.30 | 26 | $12,617.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $484.43 | 26 | $12,595.18 | $12,690.50 |
$-22.75 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $484.95 | 26 | $12,608.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $490.12 | 26 | $12,743.12 | $12,825.05 |
+$134.55 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $488.14 | 26 | $12,691.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $478.36 | 26 | $12,437.23 | $12,570.64 |
$-254.41 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $470.82 | 26 | $12,241.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $478.56 | 26 | $12,442.56 | $12,771.88 |
+$201.24 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $484.70 | 26 | $12,602.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:15pm ET | $484.74 | 26 | $12,603.33 | $12,772.88 |
+$1.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $480.13 | 26 | $12,483.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $478.99 | 26 | $12,453.74 | $12,743.37 |
$-29.51 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $479.19 | 26 | $12,458.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $473.75 | 26 | $12,317.50 | $12,601.93 |
$-141.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $470.38 | 26 | $12,229.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $473.21 | 26 | $12,303.46 | $12,675.51 |
+$73.58 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $474.67 | 26 | $12,341.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $474.48 | 26 | $12,336.48 | $12,670.44 |
$-5.07 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $451.88 | 28 | $12,652.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $451.77 | 28 | $12,649.59 | $12,667.39 |
$-3.05 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $465.63 | 27 | $12,572.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $467.02 | 27 | $12,609.54 | $12,704.92 |
+$37.53 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $451.39 | 28 | $12,639.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $451.42 | 28 | $12,639.90 | $12,705.76 |
+$0.84 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $458.45 | 27 | $12,378.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $454.86 | 27 | $12,281.35 | $12,608.96 |
$-96.80 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $449.99 | 28 | $12,599.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $450.80 | 28 | $12,622.54 | $12,631.78 |
+$22.82 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $468.49 | 26 | $12,180.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $470.05 | 26 | $12,221.43 | $12,672.34 |
+$40.56 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $465.02 | 27 | $12,555.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $460.29 | 27 | $12,427.83 | $12,544.50 |
$-127.84 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $471.58 | 26 | $12,261.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:50pm ET | $468.56 | 26 | $12,182.56 | $12,465.98 |
$-78.52 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $461.01 | 27 | $12,447.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $465.15 | 27 | $12,559.05 | $12,577.76 |
+$111.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $483.42 | 26 | $12,569.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:40pm ET | $485.52 | 26 | $12,623.65 | $12,632.36 |
+$54.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $475.44 | 26 | $12,361.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $477.32 | 26 | $12,410.37 | $12,681.29 |
+$48.93 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $473.82 | 26 | $12,319.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $471.93 | 26 | $12,270.18 | $12,632.15 |
$-49.14 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $460.00 | 27 | $12,420.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $451.55 | 27 | $12,191.85 | $12,404.00 |
$-228.15 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $457.46 | 27 | $12,351.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $458.81 | 27 | $12,387.87 | $12,440.32 |
+$36.32 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.42 | 27 | $12,080.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $451.11 | 27 | $12,180.06 | $12,540.04 |
+$99.72 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,540.04
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,540.04
Total Return:
+25.40%