MA Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+6.23%
Year to Date Return
$11,060.98
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$10,412.54
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
31.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 30.7
30-Day Momentum
10
-0.8%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,261
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
87 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,412.54
Current Value
$11,060.98
Period P&L
$648.44
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
33 /
17
Best Trade
+1.36%
Worst Trade
-1.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,054,021.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$648.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$648.44
Gross Return
+6.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.23%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 87 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,412.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:50pm ET | $572.72 | 18 | $10,308.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $572.56 | 18 | $10,306.08 | $10,409.69 |
$-2.84 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:40pm ET | $583.22 | 17 | $9,914.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $582.25 | 17 | $9,898.25 | $10,393.28 |
$-16.41 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $577.90 | 17 | $9,824.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $580.01 | 17 | $9,860.17 | $10,429.11 |
+$35.83 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $564.34 | 18 | $10,158.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $565.28 | 18 | $10,174.95 | $10,446.03 |
+$16.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $543.89 | 19 | $10,333.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $546.13 | 19 | $10,376.38 | $10,488.50 |
+$42.47 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $542.42 | 19 | $10,305.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $541.44 | 19 | $10,287.36 | $10,469.88 |
$-18.62 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $541.12 | 19 | $10,281.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $542.35 | 19 | $10,304.65 | $10,493.25 |
+$23.37 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $529.94 | 19 | $10,068.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $526.36 | 19 | $10,000.76 | $10,425.15 |
$-68.10 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $526.57 | 19 | $10,004.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $527.72 | 19 | $10,026.68 | $10,447.10 |
+$21.94 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $523.68 | 19 | $9,949.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $524.41 | 19 | $9,963.79 | $10,460.97 |
+$13.87 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:00pm ET | $521.92 | 20 | $10,438.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $522.52 | 20 | $10,450.30 | $10,472.97 |
+$12.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $538.96 | 19 | $10,240.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $541.78 | 19 | $10,293.88 | $10,526.61 |
+$53.64 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $553.29 | 19 | $10,512.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $555.32 | 19 | $10,551.08 | $10,565.18 |
+$38.57 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $550.47 | 19 | $10,458.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $552.96 | 19 | $10,506.24 | $10,612.49 |
+$47.31 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $541.28 | 19 | $10,284.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $537.54 | 19 | $10,213.26 | $10,541.43 |
$-71.06 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $541.59 | 19 | $10,290.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $541.46 | 19 | $10,287.74 | $10,538.96 |
$-2.47 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $516.00 | 20 | $10,320.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $523.01 | 20 | $10,460.20 | $10,679.16 |
+$140.20 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $528.84 | 20 | $10,576.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $524.51 | 20 | $10,490.10 | $10,592.46 |
$-86.70 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $520.66 | 20 | $10,413.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $521.51 | 20 | $10,430.20 | $10,609.46 |
+$17.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $503.52 | 21 | $10,574.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $494.04 | 21 | $10,374.84 | $10,410.28 |
$-199.18 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $511.94 | 20 | $10,238.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $512.17 | 20 | $10,243.40 | $10,414.88 |
+$4.60 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $509.87 | 20 | $10,197.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $515.40 | 20 | $10,307.90 | $10,525.38 |
+$110.50 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $516.33 | 20 | $10,326.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $518.49 | 20 | $10,369.80 | $10,568.58 |
+$43.20 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $520.90 | 20 | $10,418.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $524.02 | 20 | $10,480.40 | $10,630.98 |
+$62.40 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $516.60 | 20 | $10,332.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $519.01 | 20 | $10,380.10 | $10,679.08 |
+$48.10 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $509.51 | 20 | $10,190.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $512.04 | 20 | $10,240.90 | $10,729.88 |
+$50.80 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $514.36 | 20 | $10,287.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $515.58 | 20 | $10,311.60 | $10,754.18 |
+$24.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $501.69 | 21 | $10,535.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:10am ET | $505.02 | 21 | $10,605.52 | $10,824.21 |
+$70.03 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $496.21 | 21 | $10,420.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:10pm ET | $497.82 | 21 | $10,454.12 | $10,857.81 |
+$33.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $509.95 | 21 | $10,708.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $510.43 | 21 | $10,718.98 | $10,867.83 |
+$10.02 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $488.41 | 22 | $10,745.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $491.89 | 22 | $10,821.58 | $10,944.39 |
+$76.56 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $496.95 | 22 | $10,932.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $498.05 | 22 | $10,957.10 | $10,968.59 |
+$24.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.10 | 22 | $10,936.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $496.80 | 22 | $10,929.71 | $10,962.21 |
$-6.38 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $495.68 | 22 | $10,904.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $499.51 | 22 | $10,989.11 | $11,046.36 |
+$84.15 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $500.34 | 22 | $11,007.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $500.86 | 22 | $11,018.92 | $11,057.80 |
+$11.44 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $482.78 | 22 | $10,621.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.45 | 22 | $10,745.79 | $11,182.43 |
+$124.63 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $496.21 | 22 | $10,916.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:35am ET | $494.56 | 22 | $10,880.32 | $11,146.13 |
$-36.30 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $499.24 | 22 | $10,983.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $501.63 | 22 | $11,035.82 | $11,198.67 |
+$52.54 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $509.48 | 21 | $10,699.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $509.46 | 21 | $10,698.66 | $11,198.25 |
$-0.42 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $501.01 | 22 | $11,022.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $497.74 | 22 | $10,950.28 | $11,126.31 |
$-71.94 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $511.98 | 21 | $10,751.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:20pm ET | $511.29 | 21 | $10,737.09 | $11,111.82 |
$-14.49 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $518.81 | 21 | $10,894.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $519.47 | 21 | $10,908.91 | $11,125.78 |
+$13.96 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $523.32 | 21 | $10,989.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $523.15 | 21 | $10,986.15 | $11,122.32 |
$-3.46 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $511.84 | 21 | $10,748.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:35pm ET | $512.17 | 21 | $10,755.57 | $11,129.25 |
+$6.93 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $504.57 | 22 | $11,100.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 12:15pm ET | $502.49 | 22 | $11,054.89 | $11,083.60 |
$-45.65 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $501.69 | 22 | $11,037.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $505.82 | 22 | $11,128.04 | $11,174.46 |
+$90.86 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $513.77 | 21 | $10,789.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 1:45pm ET | $512.65 | 21 | $10,765.65 | $11,150.94 |
$-23.52 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $513.96 | 21 | $10,793.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:45am ET | $507.56 | 21 | $10,658.76 | $11,016.54 |
$-134.40 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $495.01 | 22 | $10,890.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $495.01 | 22 | $10,890.22 | $11,016.54 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.37 | 22 | $11,008.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $502.39 | 22 | $11,052.58 | $11,060.98 |
+$44.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,060.98
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,060.98
Total Return:
+10.61%