MARA Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
+3.00%
Year to Date Return
$11,028.06
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,707.17
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.1/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
22.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 21.8
30-Day Momentum
14
-3.0%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,371
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,707.17
Current Value
$11,028.06
Period P&L
$320.93
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
34 /
17
Best Trade
+6.01%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.07%
Avg Hold Time
7.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,170,731.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$320.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$320.93
Gross Return
+3.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,707.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:05pm ET | $9.04 | 1,193 | $10,778.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.07 | 1,193 | $10,814.55 | $10,820.46 |
+$35.79 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $10.32 | 1,048 | $10,815.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $10.37 | 1,048 | $10,862.52 | $10,867.62 |
+$47.16 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $10.01 | 1,086 | $10,865.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $10.12 | 1,086 | $10,984.89 | $10,987.08 |
+$119.46 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.97 | 1,102 | $10,981.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $10.10 | 1,102 | $11,130.20 | $11,135.85 |
+$148.77 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.21 | 1,090 | $11,133.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $10.31 | 1,090 | $11,232.45 | $11,234.38 |
+$98.54 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $10.56 | 1,063 | $11,225.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:20pm ET | $10.67 | 1,063 | $11,336.90 | $11,346.10 |
+$111.72 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $10.98 | 1,033 | $11,337.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $11.11 | 1,033 | $11,471.47 | $11,480.39 |
+$134.29 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $10.98 | 1,045 | $11,474.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $10.92 | 1,045 | $11,406.18 | $11,412.47 |
$-67.93 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $10.54 | 1,082 | $11,404.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $10.72 | 1,082 | $11,593.63 | $11,601.82 |
+$189.35 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $10.58 | 1,096 | $11,595.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:55pm ET | $10.47 | 1,096 | $11,475.12 | $11,481.26 |
$-120.56 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.28 | 1,116 | $11,472.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:30pm ET | $10.39 | 1,116 | $11,595.24 | $11,604.24 |
+$122.98 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $10.58 | 1,096 | $11,595.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.22 | 1,096 | $11,201.23 | $11,209.68 |
$-394.56 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.32 | 1,086 | $11,207.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $10.42 | 1,086 | $11,316.12 | $11,318.17 |
+$108.49 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $9.70 | 1,167 | $11,314.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $9.78 | 1,167 | $11,413.26 | $11,417.37 |
+$99.19 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.16 | 1,246 | $11,412.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.35 | 1,246 | $11,656.33 | $11,661.21 |
+$243.84 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.14 | 1,275 | $11,653.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $8.71 | 1,275 | $11,105.38 | $11,113.47 |
$-547.74 (-4.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.78 | 1,427 | $11,109.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $7.55 | 1,427 | $10,780.98 | $10,785.26 |
$-328.21 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 1,378 | $10,782.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,378 | $11,430.51 | $11,432.92 |
+$647.66 (+6.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $7.95 | 1,439 | $11,432.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $7.86 | 1,439 | $11,303.35 | $11,303.41 |
$-129.51 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $7.39 | 1,529 | $11,299.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:50pm ET | $7.53 | 1,529 | $11,521.01 | $11,525.11 |
+$221.70 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.68 | 1,501 | $11,520.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $7.55 | 1,501 | $11,325.05 | $11,329.98 |
$-195.13 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.42 | 1,526 | $11,322.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $7.53 | 1,526 | $11,483.15 | $11,490.21 |
+$160.23 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $7.84 | 1,466 | $11,486.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $7.91 | 1,466 | $11,596.21 | $11,600.31 |
+$110.10 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.61 | 1,525 | $11,597.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $7.90 | 1,525 | $12,047.50 | $12,050.19 |
+$449.88 (+3.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $8.60 | 1,401 | $12,041.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.60 | 1,401 | $12,048.60 | $12,057.20 |
+$7.01 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $9.30 | 1,296 | $12,052.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.37 | 1,296 | $12,142.74 | $12,147.27 |
+$90.07 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $9.48 | 1,280 | $12,140.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $9.62 | 1,280 | $12,313.60 | $12,320.07 |
+$172.80 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.05 | 1,361 | $12,317.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $8.78 | 1,361 | $11,949.58 | $11,952.60 |
$-367.47 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $7.99 | 1,496 | $11,945.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.08 | 1,496 | $12,087.68 | $12,094.72 |
+$142.12 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $8.55 | 1,414 | $12,089.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $8.69 | 1,414 | $12,280.59 | $12,285.61 |
+$190.89 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $8.35 | 1,471 | $12,282.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $8.45 | 1,471 | $12,437.30 | $12,440.06 |
+$154.45 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.16 | 1,358 | $12,439.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.26 | 1,358 | $12,575.22 | $12,576.00 |
+$135.94 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $9.02 | 1,394 | $12,573.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 1,394 | $12,044.16 | $12,046.28 |
$-529.72 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $8.56 | 1,407 | $12,043.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.55 | 1,407 | $12,029.85 | $12,032.49 |
$-13.79 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.84 | 1,361 | $12,024.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $8.45 | 1,361 | $11,507.25 | $11,515.31 |
$-517.18 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:45pm ET | $8.07 | 1,426 | $11,509.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $8.16 | 1,426 | $11,636.16 | $11,641.65 |
+$126.34 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.34 | 1,395 | $11,634.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $7.91 | 1,395 | $11,034.59 | $11,041.94 |
$-599.71 (-5.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $7.74 | 1,425 | $11,036.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $7.77 | 1,425 | $11,075.81 | $11,081.13 |
+$39.19 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $8.10 | 1,368 | $11,078.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $8.23 | 1,368 | $11,258.64 | $11,260.88 |
+$179.75 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $8.90 | 1,264 | $11,255.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $8.90 | 1,264 | $11,243.28 | $11,248.24 |
$-12.64 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 1,192 | $11,240.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $9.47 | 1,192 | $11,288.36 | $11,296.04 |
+$47.80 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $9.59 | 1,178 | $11,291.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.77 | 1,178 | $11,503.17 | $11,508.08 |
+$212.04 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $11.74 | 980 | $11,500.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.73 | 980 | $11,490.50 | $11,497.99 |
$-10.09 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.45 | 1,003 | $11,489.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.55 | 1,003 | $11,584.65 | $11,593.28 |
+$95.29 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $11.82 | 980 | $11,584.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.85 | 980 | $11,617.90 | $11,626.80 |
+$33.52 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $11.60 | 1,001 | $11,616.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $11.53 | 1,001 | $11,546.53 | $11,556.73 |
$-70.07 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.17 | 1,034 | $11,549.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 1,034 | $11,136.18 | $11,143.13 |
$-413.60 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 1,038 | $11,132.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $10.36 | 1,038 | $10,758.87 | $10,769.45 |
$-373.68 (-3.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.87 | 907 | $10,766.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $11.99 | 907 | $10,879.46 | $10,882.73 |
+$113.28 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $11.56 | 941 | $10,873.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.60 | 941 | $10,910.90 | $10,920.37 |
+$37.64 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.79 | 926 | $10,914.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.90 | 926 | $11,022.64 | $11,028.06 |
+$107.69 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,028.06
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,028.06
Total Return:
+10.28%