MDT Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
+1.93%
Year to Date Return
$9,295.45
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,119.50
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
11.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 11.9
30-Day Momentum
22
+0.4%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.1
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,941
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
87 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,119.50
Current Value
$9,295.45
Period P&L
$175.90
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
29 /
20
Best Trade
+1.52%
Worst Trade
-1.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
5.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$885,979.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$175.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$175.90
Gross Return
+1.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 87 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,119.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 2:50pm ET | $96.38 | 94 | $9,059.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $95.30 | 94 | $8,958.21 | $9,004.88 |
$-101.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $95.49 | 94 | $8,976.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $95.86 | 94 | $9,010.84 | $9,039.66 |
+$34.78 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $99.96 | 90 | $8,996.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:05pm ET | $99.93 | 90 | $8,993.70 | $9,036.96 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $99.58 | 90 | $8,961.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $99.25 | 90 | $8,932.50 | $9,007.71 |
$-29.25 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $97.05 | 92 | $8,928.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $96.93 | 92 | $8,917.56 | $8,996.67 |
$-11.04 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $96.45 | 93 | $8,969.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $96.43 | 93 | $8,967.99 | $8,994.81 |
$-1.86 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $97.65 | 92 | $8,983.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $98.31 | 92 | $9,044.52 | $9,055.53 |
+$60.72 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $97.60 | 92 | $8,979.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $95.98 | 92 | $8,829.70 | $8,906.03 |
$-149.50 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $99.63 | 89 | $8,867.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $99.44 | 89 | $8,850.16 | $8,889.12 |
$-16.91 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $101.62 | 87 | $8,840.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $101.24 | 87 | $8,807.88 | $8,856.06 |
$-33.06 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:55pm ET | $101.55 | 87 | $8,834.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $101.11 | 87 | $8,796.14 | $8,817.35 |
$-38.71 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:55pm ET | $100.91 | 87 | $8,778.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $100.81 | 87 | $8,770.47 | $8,809.08 |
$-8.26 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $102.25 | 86 | $8,793.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $102.45 | 86 | $8,810.70 | $8,826.68 |
+$17.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $103.34 | 85 | $8,783.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $104.91 | 85 | $8,917.35 | $8,960.13 |
+$133.45 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $103.86 | 86 | $8,931.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $103.98 | 86 | $8,942.28 | $8,970.45 |
+$10.32 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $101.96 | 87 | $8,870.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $101.99 | 87 | $8,873.13 | $8,973.06 |
+$2.61 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $102.06 | 87 | $8,879.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $102.29 | 87 | $8,899.23 | $8,993.07 |
+$20.01 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $95.91 | 93 | $8,919.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $96.76 | 93 | $8,998.68 | $9,072.12 |
+$79.05 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $98.04 | 92 | $9,019.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:15pm ET | $97.71 | 92 | $8,989.32 | $9,041.76 |
$-30.36 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.86 | 93 | $9,007.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $97.44 | 93 | $9,061.92 | $9,095.70 |
+$53.94 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $98.43 | 92 | $9,055.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $97.68 | 92 | $8,986.56 | $9,026.70 |
$-69.00 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $96.09 | 93 | $8,936.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $96.29 | 93 | $8,955.43 | $9,045.77 |
+$19.07 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $97.50 | 92 | $8,970.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $97.54 | 92 | $8,973.22 | $9,048.99 |
+$3.22 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $97.18 | 93 | $9,037.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $96.56 | 93 | $8,979.62 | $8,990.87 |
$-58.13 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.51 | 95 | $8,978.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $93.18 | 95 | $8,852.57 | $8,864.99 |
$-125.88 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.89 | 98 | $8,809.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $90.65 | 98 | $8,883.70 | $8,939.47 |
+$74.48 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $89.27 | 100 | $8,927.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $90.10 | 100 | $9,010.00 | $9,022.47 |
+$83.00 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $87.73 | 102 | $8,948.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $88.29 | 102 | $9,006.09 | $9,080.10 |
+$57.63 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $87.88 | 103 | $9,051.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:40pm ET | $88.19 | 103 | $9,083.57 | $9,112.55 |
+$32.45 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $88.23 | 103 | $9,087.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $88.52 | 103 | $9,117.56 | $9,142.42 |
+$29.87 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 12:50pm ET | $87.10 | 104 | $9,057.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $86.86 | 104 | $9,032.92 | $9,117.46 |
$-24.96 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.61 | 105 | $9,094.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $87.05 | 105 | $9,140.25 | $9,163.66 |
+$46.20 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $87.59 | 104 | $9,109.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.82 | 104 | $9,133.28 | $9,187.58 |
+$23.92 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.75 | 105 | $9,109.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $86.91 | 105 | $9,125.55 | $9,203.86 |
+$16.28 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $86.33 | 106 | $9,150.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $86.47 | 106 | $9,165.82 | $9,218.70 |
+$14.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $85.76 | 107 | $9,176.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:05am ET | $86.16 | 107 | $9,219.12 | $9,261.50 |
+$42.80 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $86.44 | 107 | $9,249.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $86.29 | 107 | $9,233.03 | $9,245.45 |
$-16.05 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.82 | 105 | $9,221.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $87.78 | 105 | $9,216.38 | $9,240.73 |
$-4.72 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $87.18 | 105 | $9,154.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $87.24 | 105 | $9,160.20 | $9,246.51 |
+$5.78 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $88.38 | 104 | $9,191.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:30pm ET | $88.54 | 104 | $9,207.64 | $9,262.63 |
+$16.12 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.32 | 107 | $9,236.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $86.42 | 107 | $9,246.94 | $9,273.33 |
+$10.70 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $86.62 | 107 | $9,268.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $86.18 | 107 | $9,221.79 | $9,226.78 |
$-46.55 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $85.11 | 108 | $9,191.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $85.27 | 108 | $9,209.16 | $9,244.06 |
+$17.28 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $82.93 | 111 | $9,205.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $83.03 | 111 | $9,216.33 | $9,255.16 |
+$11.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $83.58 | 110 | $9,193.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $83.66 | 110 | $9,202.60 | $9,263.96 |
+$8.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $83.08 | 111 | $9,221.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $83.47 | 111 | $9,265.17 | $9,307.25 |
+$43.29 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $81.62 | 114 | $9,304.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $81.61 | 114 | $9,302.97 | $9,305.54 |
$-1.71 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $80.32 | 115 | $9,237.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $80.74 | 115 | $9,285.10 | $9,353.27 |
+$47.73 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $79.13 | 118 | $9,337.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 2:45pm ET | $78.64 | 118 | $9,279.52 | $9,295.45 |
$-57.82 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,295.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-704.55
Total Return:
-7.05%