MRK Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 52 trades in period
+11.49%
Year to Date Return
$12,863.83
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$11,538.49
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
42
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
42.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 42.4
30-Day Momentum
60
+5.8%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
3.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 63.5
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+18 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,318
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,538.49
Current Value
$12,863.83
Period P&L
$1,325.34
Max Drawdown
-8.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
35 /
17
Best Trade
+2.85%
Worst Trade
-1.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.21%
Avg Hold Time
3.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,230,738.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,325.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,325.34
Gross Return
+11.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,538.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $106.61 | 108 | $11,513.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET | $106.96 | 108 | $11,551.68 | $11,576.28 |
+$37.80 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $108.58 | 106 | $11,509.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $108.98 | 106 | $11,551.88 | $11,618.68 |
+$42.40 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $110.19 | 105 | $11,569.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $109.82 | 105 | $11,531.10 | $11,580.35 |
$-38.33 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.72 | 105 | $11,520.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $110.48 | 105 | $11,600.40 | $11,660.68 |
+$80.33 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $107.86 | 108 | $11,648.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:25pm ET | $108.01 | 108 | $11,665.08 | $11,676.88 |
+$16.20 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $109.68 | 106 | $11,626.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $109.11 | 106 | $11,565.13 | $11,615.93 |
$-60.95 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $109.23 | 106 | $11,578.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $109.17 | 106 | $11,572.02 | $11,609.58 |
$-6.35 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $108.41 | 107 | $11,599.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $108.68 | 107 | $11,628.76 | $11,639.00 |
+$29.43 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $110.28 | 105 | $11,579.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $109.12 | 105 | $11,457.60 | $11,517.20 |
$-121.80 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $107.87 | 106 | $11,434.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $107.33 | 106 | $11,376.72 | $11,459.70 |
$-57.51 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $107.34 | 106 | $11,378.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $107.63 | 106 | $11,408.78 | $11,490.44 |
+$30.74 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $106.51 | 107 | $11,396.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:10pm ET | $106.55 | 107 | $11,400.85 | $11,494.72 |
+$4.28 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $109.16 | 105 | $11,461.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $109.43 | 105 | $11,490.15 | $11,523.07 |
+$28.35 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $112.40 | 102 | $11,464.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:40pm ET | $112.57 | 102 | $11,482.65 | $11,540.92 |
+$17.85 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $115.69 | 99 | $11,453.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.82 | 99 | $11,763.67 | $11,851.28 |
+$310.36 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $121.16 | 97 | $11,752.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $121.58 | 97 | $11,793.74 | $11,892.51 |
+$41.22 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.69 | 99 | $11,849.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $119.04 | 99 | $11,785.45 | $11,828.65 |
$-63.86 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $116.76 | 101 | $11,793.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $116.94 | 101 | $11,810.94 | $11,846.33 |
+$17.68 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.28 | 97 | $11,763.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $120.86 | 97 | $11,723.90 | $11,806.56 |
$-39.77 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.37 | 97 | $11,772.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $121.80 | 97 | $11,814.60 | $11,848.27 |
+$41.71 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $123.21 | 96 | $11,828.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $123.46 | 96 | $11,852.16 | $11,872.27 |
+$24.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $124.03 | 95 | $11,782.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:50pm ET | $124.45 | 95 | $11,822.75 | $11,912.17 |
+$39.90 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.95 | 97 | $11,829.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $120.94 | 97 | $11,731.18 | $11,814.21 |
$-97.96 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.14 | 95 | $11,697.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $121.94 | 95 | $11,584.30 | $11,700.69 |
$-113.52 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $120.19 | 97 | $11,658.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $119.75 | 97 | $11,616.23 | $11,658.49 |
$-42.20 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $115.13 | 101 | $11,628.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $115.04 | 101 | $11,619.04 | $11,649.40 |
$-9.09 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $114.44 | 101 | $11,557.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $115.95 | 101 | $11,710.95 | $11,802.39 |
+$152.99 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $117.79 | 100 | $11,779.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $117.79 | 100 | $11,779.50 | $11,802.39 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.71 | 102 | $11,700.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $115.22 | 102 | $11,752.95 | $11,854.41 |
+$52.02 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $116.03 | 102 | $11,835.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $115.41 | 102 | $11,771.82 | $11,791.17 |
$-63.24 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $115.38 | 102 | $11,768.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $115.79 | 102 | $11,810.84 | $11,833.76 |
+$42.59 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $114.11 | 103 | $11,753.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $114.37 | 103 | $11,780.11 | $11,860.54 |
+$26.78 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $113.24 | 104 | $11,776.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $113.97 | 104 | $11,852.88 | $11,936.46 |
+$75.92 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $115.58 | 103 | $11,904.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $115.83 | 103 | $11,930.49 | $11,962.21 |
+$25.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $119.44 | 100 | $11,944.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $119.19 | 100 | $11,919.00 | $11,936.71 |
$-25.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $119.95 | 99 | $11,875.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $120.27 | 99 | $11,906.73 | $11,968.39 |
+$31.68 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $117.62 | 101 | $11,879.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $117.96 | 101 | $11,913.96 | $12,002.73 |
+$34.34 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.49 | 99 | $11,928.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $121.29 | 99 | $12,007.22 | $12,081.93 |
+$79.20 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $120.42 | 100 | $12,042.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $120.93 | 100 | $12,093.50 | $12,133.43 |
+$51.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $122.88 | 98 | $12,042.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $123.10 | 98 | $12,063.31 | $12,154.50 |
+$21.07 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.51 | 100 | $12,151.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.24 | 100 | $12,124.00 | $12,127.00 |
$-27.50 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $120.77 | 100 | $12,077.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $121.22 | 100 | $12,122.00 | $12,172.00 |
+$45.00 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $119.17 | 102 | $12,155.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $118.85 | 102 | $12,122.70 | $12,139.26 |
$-32.74 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $116.36 | 104 | $12,101.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET | $116.21 | 104 | $12,085.84 | $12,123.14 |
$-16.12 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $117.33 | 103 | $12,084.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $118.48 | 103 | $12,203.44 | $12,241.59 |
+$118.45 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $112.10 | 109 | $12,218.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $112.85 | 109 | $12,300.65 | $12,323.30 |
+$81.71 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.74 | 108 | $12,283.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $112.10 | 108 | $12,106.26 | $12,145.64 |
$-177.66 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $111.26 | 109 | $12,127.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.52 | 109 | $12,155.68 | $12,173.98 |
+$28.34 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $108.22 | 112 | $12,120.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $109.52 | 112 | $12,266.24 | $12,319.58 |
+$145.60 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $109.44 | 112 | $12,257.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.56 | 112 | $12,606.16 | $12,668.46 |
+$348.88 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.27 | 113 | $12,573.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $112.32 | 113 | $12,692.16 | $12,787.11 |
+$118.65 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.18 | 112 | $12,676.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $113.86 | 112 | $12,752.88 | $12,863.83 |
+$76.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,863.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,863.83
Total Return:
+28.64%