MRNA Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
-22.89%
Year to Date Return
$5,509.39
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$7,144.77
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.8/10
Raw Quality
9.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 9.3
30-Day Momentum
20
+0.5%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.2
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,477
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,144.77
Current Value
$5,509.39
Period P&L
$-1,635.35
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
30 /
20
Best Trade
+3.77%
Worst Trade
-12.86%
Avg Trade Return
-0.48%
Avg Hold Time
7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$629,308.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,635.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,635.35
Gross Return
-22.89%
Net Return (after fees)
-22.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,144.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $30.59 | 233 | $7,127.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $30.69 | 233 | $7,149.61 | $7,166.89 |
+$22.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $35.03 | 204 | $7,145.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $35.36 | 204 | $7,212.42 | $7,234.21 |
+$67.32 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.34 | 204 | $7,209.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 11:00am ET | $35.27 | 204 | $7,195.08 | $7,219.93 |
$-14.28 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $34.85 | 207 | $7,212.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.57 | 207 | $6,947.96 | $6,954.97 |
$-264.96 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $40.26 | 172 | $6,924.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $40.09 | 172 | $6,896.10 | $6,926.87 |
$-28.10 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $40.67 | 170 | $6,913.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.67 | 170 | $6,913.90 | $6,926.87 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $42.10 | 164 | $6,903.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $42.43 | 164 | $6,958.52 | $6,981.81 |
+$54.94 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $53.24 | 131 | $6,974.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $53.29 | 131 | $6,980.34 | $6,987.70 |
+$5.89 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $47.38 | 147 | $6,964.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $48.09 | 147 | $7,069.23 | $7,092.07 |
+$104.37 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $48.60 | 145 | $7,047.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 1:45pm ET | $47.06 | 145 | $6,823.70 | $6,868.77 |
$-223.30 (-3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $44.36 | 154 | $6,830.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:45pm ET | $44.73 | 154 | $6,888.42 | $6,926.52 |
+$57.75 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.66 | 151 | $6,894.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $45.01 | 151 | $6,796.51 | $6,828.37 |
$-98.15 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $43.15 | 158 | $6,816.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $44.77 | 158 | $7,073.66 | $7,085.12 |
+$256.75 (+3.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $41.89 | 169 | $7,079.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $42.28 | 169 | $7,144.48 | $7,150.19 |
+$65.07 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $40.32 | 177 | $7,136.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $40.69 | 177 | $7,202.13 | $7,215.68 |
+$65.49 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $41.02 | 175 | $7,178.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $41.19 | 175 | $7,207.38 | $7,244.55 |
+$28.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $42.59 | 170 | $7,240.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.12 | 170 | $6,309.55 | $6,313.80 |
$-930.75 (-12.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $42.53 | 148 | $6,294.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $42.79 | 148 | $6,333.66 | $6,353.08 |
+$39.28 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:30pm ET | $45.94 | 138 | $6,339.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $46.30 | 138 | $6,389.40 | $6,402.76 |
+$49.68 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.15 | 130 | $6,389.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $49.37 | 130 | $6,418.10 | $6,431.36 |
+$28.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $50.51 | 127 | $6,414.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $50.64 | 127 | $6,431.71 | $6,448.30 |
+$16.94 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:50pm ET | $52.37 | 123 | $6,441.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:10pm ET | $52.78 | 123 | $6,491.94 | $6,498.73 |
+$50.43 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.88 | 127 | $6,461.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $51.67 | 127 | $6,562.60 | $6,600.20 |
+$101.47 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.40 | 128 | $6,578.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $49.17 | 128 | $6,293.76 | $6,315.40 |
$-284.80 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.33 | 110 | $6,306.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $57.47 | 110 | $6,321.70 | $6,330.80 |
+$15.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $55.92 | 113 | $6,318.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.81 | 113 | $6,306.53 | $6,318.37 |
$-12.43 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:05pm ET | $54.14 | 116 | $6,280.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.24 | 116 | $6,291.84 | $6,329.97 |
+$11.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $52.33 | 120 | $6,279.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $52.42 | 120 | $6,291.00 | $6,341.37 |
+$11.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.01 | 115 | $6,326.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $52.73 | 115 | $6,063.72 | $6,078.37 |
$-263.00 (-4.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 12:10pm ET | $51.97 | 116 | $6,028.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 12:45pm ET | $52.26 | 116 | $6,062.16 | $6,112.12 |
+$33.76 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $51.36 | 119 | $6,111.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $51.67 | 119 | $6,148.73 | $6,149.01 |
+$36.89 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.26 | 119 | $6,099.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.34 | 119 | $5,990.46 | $6,039.53 |
$-109.48 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:50pm ET | $53.20 | 113 | $6,011.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $53.10 | 113 | $6,000.30 | $6,028.23 |
$-11.30 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.80 | 114 | $6,019.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $50.78 | 114 | $5,788.92 | $5,797.95 |
$-230.28 (-3.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $47.90 | 121 | $5,795.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $47.66 | 121 | $5,766.86 | $5,768.91 |
$-29.04 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $50.65 | 113 | $5,723.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 113 | $5,436.66 | $5,482.12 |
$-286.79 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $48.33 | 113 | $5,461.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $48.72 | 113 | $5,504.80 | $5,525.62 |
+$43.50 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $49.07 | 112 | $5,495.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $49.42 | 112 | $5,535.60 | $5,565.38 |
+$39.76 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $50.91 | 109 | $5,549.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $51.25 | 109 | $5,586.25 | $5,602.44 |
+$37.06 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $51.37 | 109 | $5,599.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.22 | 109 | $5,582.44 | $5,585.55 |
$-16.89 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $52.49 | 106 | $5,563.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $52.92 | 106 | $5,610.05 | $5,631.66 |
+$46.11 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.51 | 105 | $5,618.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.40 | 105 | $5,606.99 | $5,620.10 |
$-11.56 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $54.07 | 103 | $5,569.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $54.63 | 103 | $5,627.40 | $5,678.29 |
+$58.19 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.46 | 108 | $5,665.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.32 | 108 | $5,866.56 | $5,879.17 |
+$200.88 (+3.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $53.91 | 109 | $5,876.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $51.22 | 109 | $5,582.98 | $5,585.96 |
$-293.21 (-5.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
23.9h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.51 | 115 | $5,578.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $47.93 | 115 | $5,511.95 | $5,519.26 |
$-66.70 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $46.28 | 119 | $5,507.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $45.47 | 119 | $5,410.34 | $5,422.28 |
$-96.98 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $47.01 | 115 | $5,405.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $46.60 | 115 | $5,359.57 | $5,376.28 |
$-46.00 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $43.74 | 122 | $5,336.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $44.40 | 122 | $5,416.49 | $5,456.49 |
+$80.21 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $47.16 | 115 | $5,423.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.62 | 115 | $5,476.30 | $5,509.39 |
+$52.90 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,509.39
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,490.61
Total Return:
-44.91%