NIO Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
+17.12%
Year to Date Return
$9,544.31
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$8,149.14
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
12.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 12.0
30-Day Momentum
48
+4.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.1
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+36 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,252
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,149.14
Current Value
$9,544.31
Period P&L
$1,395.21
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
32 /
15
Best Trade
+6.56%
Worst Trade
-3.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.35%
Avg Hold Time
6.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$827,707.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,395.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,395.21
Gross Return
+17.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,149.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $5.13 | 1,590 | $8,148.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $5.12 | 1,590 | $8,132.85 | $8,133.22 |
$-15.90 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $4.88 | 1,666 | $8,130.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $4.89 | 1,666 | $8,146.74 | $8,149.88 |
+$16.66 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $4.81 | 1,696 | $8,149.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $4.82 | 1,696 | $8,166.24 | $8,166.84 |
+$16.96 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $4.73 | 1,726 | $8,163.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.68 | 1,726 | $8,069.05 | $8,071.91 |
$-94.93 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $4.87 | 1,659 | $8,071.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:55pm ET | $4.89 | 1,659 | $8,108.86 | $8,109.73 |
+$37.83 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $4.72 | 1,719 | $8,105.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.59 | 1,719 | $7,881.62 | $7,886.26 |
$-223.47 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:20pm ET | $4.62 | 1,706 | $7,881.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $4.63 | 1,706 | $7,890.25 | $7,894.79 |
+$8.53 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $4.59 | 1,719 | $7,890.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $4.57 | 1,719 | $7,847.24 | $7,851.82 |
$-42.97 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $4.83 | 1,625 | $7,848.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $4.84 | 1,625 | $7,862.56 | $7,865.63 |
+$13.81 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $4.65 | 1,691 | $7,863.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.68 | 1,691 | $7,913.03 | $7,915.51 |
+$49.88 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $4.59 | 1,724 | $7,913.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:20pm ET | $4.63 | 1,724 | $7,979.71 | $7,982.06 |
+$66.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $4.81 | 1,661 | $7,981.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.94 | 1,661 | $8,200.86 | $8,201.81 |
+$219.75 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 1,810 | $8,199.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $4.48 | 1,810 | $8,108.80 | $8,111.31 |
$-90.50 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $4.49 | 1,808 | $8,108.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $4.47 | 1,808 | $8,090.80 | $8,093.23 |
$-18.08 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $4.80 | 1,685 | $8,093.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.12 | 1,685 | $8,623.83 | $8,624.00 |
+$530.78 (+6.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,811 | $8,619.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $4.95 | 1,811 | $8,973.50 | $8,977.69 |
+$353.69 (+4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $4.96 | 1,809 | $8,972.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $5.01 | 1,809 | $9,060.20 | $9,065.06 |
+$87.37 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.93 | 1,836 | $9,060.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,836 | $9,124.92 | $9,129.32 |
+$64.26 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.86 | 1,876 | $9,126.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $4.89 | 1,876 | $9,164.26 | $9,166.84 |
+$37.52 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $5.26 | 1,744 | $9,164.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.19 | 1,744 | $9,051.53 | $9,053.65 |
$-113.19 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:25pm ET | $5.22 | 1,736 | $9,053.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $5.22 | 1,736 | $9,070.60 | $9,071.01 |
+$17.36 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.96 | 1,830 | $9,070.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $4.95 | 1,830 | $9,067.65 | $9,067.72 |
$-3.29 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.51 | 2,008 | $9,066.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $4.49 | 2,008 | $9,005.88 | $9,007.48 |
$-60.24 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.72 | 1,908 | $9,005.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $4.66 | 1,908 | $8,881.74 | $8,883.46 |
$-124.02 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.34 | 1,663 | $8,880.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 12:15pm ET | $5.45 | 1,663 | $9,058.19 | $9,061.07 |
+$177.61 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.57 | 1,628 | $9,059.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $5.62 | 1,628 | $9,146.92 | $9,148.17 |
+$87.10 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $6.04 | 1,514 | $9,144.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $6.07 | 1,514 | $9,182.41 | $9,186.02 |
+$37.85 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.90 | 1,556 | $9,180.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $5.95 | 1,556 | $9,250.42 | $9,256.04 |
+$70.02 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.76 | 1,605 | $9,252.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.58 | 1,605 | $8,955.74 | $8,958.95 |
$-297.09 (-3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.75 | 1,558 | $8,953.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.82 | 1,558 | $9,075.35 | $9,080.47 |
+$121.52 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:50am ET | $5.82 | 1,558 | $9,075.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:15pm ET | $5.83 | 1,558 | $9,083.14 | $9,088.26 |
+$7.79 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $5.59 | 1,625 | $9,083.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $5.46 | 1,625 | $8,874.61 | $8,878.96 |
$-209.30 (-2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:25pm ET | $5.52 | 1,608 | $8,876.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:25pm ET | $5.55 | 1,608 | $8,916.36 | $8,919.00 |
+$40.04 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.07 | 1,468 | $8,918.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.20 | 1,468 | $9,094.26 | $9,095.16 |
+$176.16 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $6.30 | 1,442 | $9,091.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $6.25 | 1,442 | $9,012.50 | $9,015.85 |
$-79.31 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $6.41 | 1,405 | $9,013.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.57 | 1,405 | $9,230.85 | $9,233.63 |
+$217.78 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:10pm ET | $6.43 | 1,436 | $9,233.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $6.45 | 1,436 | $9,255.02 | $9,255.17 |
+$21.54 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $6.49 | 1,426 | $9,255.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.52 | 1,426 | $9,297.52 | $9,297.52 |
+$42.35 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.48 | 1,434 | $9,292.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $6.49 | 1,434 | $9,306.66 | $9,311.86 |
+$14.34 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.82 | 1,365 | $9,309.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $6.85 | 1,365 | $9,350.39 | $9,352.95 |
+$41.09 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,408 | $9,349.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $6.56 | 1,408 | $9,236.34 | $9,240.17 |
$-112.78 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:00pm ET | $6.52 | 1,417 | $9,238.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $6.55 | 1,417 | $9,288.43 | $9,289.76 |
+$49.59 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.16 | 1,508 | $9,289.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $6.24 | 1,508 | $9,408.41 | $9,408.89 |
+$119.13 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,529 | $9,403.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.24 | 1,529 | $9,533.32 | $9,538.86 |
+$129.97 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.40 | 1,490 | $9,536.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $6.43 | 1,490 | $9,578.47 | $9,581.18 |
+$42.32 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.19 | 1,547 | $9,575.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.11 | 1,547 | $9,452.17 | $9,457.42 |
$-123.76 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,655 | $9,454.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.76 | 1,655 | $9,541.07 | $9,544.31 |
+$86.89 (+0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,544.31
Net Profit/Loss:
$-455.69
Total Return:
-4.56%