NVDA Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+8.88%
Year to Date Return
$15,103.70
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$13,871.64
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
47
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.9/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
47.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 46.9
30-Day Momentum
17
+0.1%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.6
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,515
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,871.64
Current Value
$15,103.70
Period P&L
$1,232.04
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
32 /
18
Best Trade
+2.43%
Worst Trade
-1.06%
Avg Trade Return
+0.17%
Avg Hold Time
5.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,445,075.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,232.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,232.04
Gross Return
+8.88%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.88%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,871.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $189.30 | 73 | $13,818.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:00pm ET | $188.43 | 73 | $13,755.39 | $13,808.15 |
$-63.51 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $187.57 | 73 | $13,692.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $188.17 | 73 | $13,736.41 | $13,851.95 |
+$43.81 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $189.25 | 73 | $13,815.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $189.24 | 73 | $13,814.52 | $13,851.22 |
$-0.73 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.05 | 75 | $13,803.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.63 | 75 | $13,922.25 | $13,970.10 |
+$118.88 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $184.65 | 75 | $13,848.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $184.77 | 75 | $13,857.76 | $13,978.97 |
+$8.87 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.43 | 76 | $13,940.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $182.43 | 76 | $13,864.36 | $13,902.65 |
$-76.32 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:15pm ET | $187.78 | 74 | $13,895.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.28 | 74 | $14,006.94 | $14,013.87 |
+$111.22 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.09 | 76 | $13,838.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.48 | 76 | $13,716.48 | $13,891.51 |
$-122.36 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $184.28 | 75 | $13,820.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $184.57 | 75 | $13,842.75 | $13,913.64 |
+$22.12 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $186.29 | 74 | $13,785.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $186.87 | 74 | $13,828.38 | $13,956.56 |
+$42.92 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $188.89 | 73 | $13,788.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.31 | 73 | $13,965.62 | $14,133.21 |
+$176.65 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $190.61 | 74 | $14,105.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $191.69 | 74 | $14,185.06 | $14,213.13 |
+$79.92 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:05pm ET | $191.44 | 74 | $14,166.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 2:05pm ET | $191.77 | 74 | $14,190.98 | $14,237.55 |
+$24.42 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $189.41 | 75 | $14,205.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:40pm ET | $189.00 | 75 | $14,175.01 | $14,206.81 |
$-30.74 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:40pm ET | $176.97 | 80 | $14,157.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $178.53 | 80 | $14,282.12 | $14,331.33 |
+$124.52 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $174.20 | 82 | $14,284.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.26 | 82 | $14,371.32 | $14,418.25 |
+$86.92 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $190.34 | 75 | $14,275.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $190.19 | 75 | $14,264.25 | $14,407.37 |
$-10.88 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
48m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $180.83 | 79 | $14,285.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $181.40 | 79 | $14,330.60 | $14,452.35 |
+$44.98 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:50am ET | $189.09 | 76 | $14,370.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $189.52 | 76 | $14,403.90 | $14,485.41 |
+$33.06 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $187.85 | 77 | $14,464.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $188.89 | 77 | $14,544.53 | $14,565.49 |
+$80.08 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $188.48 | 77 | $14,512.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $190.57 | 77 | $14,673.88 | $14,726.41 |
+$160.92 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $196.65 | 74 | $14,551.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:45pm ET | $197.15 | 74 | $14,588.73 | $14,763.41 |
+$37.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.11 | 81 | $14,669.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $181.60 | 81 | $14,710.00 | $14,803.50 |
+$40.09 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.59 | 82 | $14,644.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $178.99 | 82 | $14,677.59 | $14,836.71 |
+$33.21 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $182.75 | 81 | $14,802.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.13 | 81 | $14,671.53 | $14,705.49 |
$-131.22 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $178.73 | 82 | $14,655.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $177.76 | 82 | $14,575.91 | $14,625.95 |
$-79.54 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $184.77 | 79 | $14,596.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.99 | 79 | $14,693.21 | $14,722.33 |
+$96.38 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.01 | 80 | $14,720.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $182.65 | 80 | $14,612.00 | $14,613.93 |
$-108.40 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $180.56 | 80 | $14,444.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $180.98 | 80 | $14,478.00 | $14,647.13 |
+$33.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $183.86 | 79 | $14,525.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $188.33 | 79 | $14,877.83 | $14,999.92 |
+$352.79 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.93 | 82 | $14,918.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $182.25 | 82 | $14,944.50 | $15,025.75 |
+$25.83 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $177.09 | 84 | $14,875.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $176.06 | 84 | $14,789.04 | $14,939.23 |
$-86.52 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $176.68 | 84 | $14,841.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $175.74 | 84 | $14,761.74 | $14,859.43 |
$-79.80 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $178.09 | 83 | $14,781.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $178.81 | 83 | $14,841.23 | $14,919.19 |
+$59.76 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $171.49 | 86 | $14,748.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.68 | 86 | $14,592.91 | $14,763.53 |
$-155.66 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $166.54 | 88 | $14,655.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $168.06 | 88 | $14,789.28 | $14,897.29 |
+$133.76 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $175.95 | 84 | $14,779.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $175.70 | 84 | $14,758.38 | $14,875.87 |
$-21.42 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.35 | 84 | $14,813.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $177.17 | 84 | $14,882.27 | $14,944.32 |
+$68.45 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $175.79 | 85 | $14,942.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $174.89 | 85 | $14,865.65 | $14,867.40 |
$-76.92 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $181.21 | 82 | $14,859.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $181.78 | 82 | $14,905.96 | $14,914.14 |
+$46.74 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $188.04 | 79 | $14,855.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $188.54 | 79 | $14,894.72 | $14,953.31 |
+$39.17 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $199.10 | 75 | $14,932.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $197.00 | 75 | $14,775.00 | $14,796.18 |
$-157.13 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $199.80 | 74 | $14,785.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $200.48 | 74 | $14,835.53 | $14,846.51 |
+$50.33 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $200.74 | 73 | $14,654.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $200.15 | 73 | $14,610.95 | $14,803.44 |
$-43.07 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $200.09 | 73 | $14,606.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $199.47 | 73 | $14,561.31 | $14,758.18 |
$-45.26 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.21 | 70 | $14,644.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $210.01 | 70 | $14,700.35 | $14,813.83 |
+$55.65 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:20pm ET | $209.93 | 70 | $14,694.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:00pm ET | $208.99 | 70 | $14,629.30 | $14,748.38 |
$-65.45 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $200.08 | 73 | $14,606.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $201.55 | 73 | $14,713.15 | $14,855.47 |
+$107.09 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $195.86 | 75 | $14,689.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $196.41 | 75 | $14,731.12 | $14,897.09 |
+$41.62 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $196.64 | 75 | $14,747.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.39 | 75 | $14,954.25 | $15,103.70 |
+$206.61 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,103.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,103.70
Total Return:
+51.04%