PEP Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
+2.55%
Year to Date Return
$10,043.99
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,794.31
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
85.2 overbought
20d Trend
+19.9%
5d Trend
+9.7%
EMA20 Dist
+9.3%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
62.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.3/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
15.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 15.5
30-Day Momentum
31
+1.2%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 32.4
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,488
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
89 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,794.31
Current Value
$10,043.99
Period P&L
$249.73
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
32 /
16
Best Trade
+1.81%
Worst Trade
-1.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
7.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$937,831.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$249.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$249.73
Gross Return
+2.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 89 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,794.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $142.66 | 68 | $9,700.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $142.74 | 68 | $9,706.32 | $9,800.04 |
+$5.78 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $140.19 | 69 | $9,672.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $140.03 | 69 | $9,662.07 | $9,789.34 |
$-10.70 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $138.27 | 70 | $9,678.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:15am ET | $138.07 | 70 | $9,664.74 | $9,775.53 |
$-13.81 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $138.91 | 70 | $9,723.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $139.26 | 70 | $9,748.20 | $9,800.03 |
+$24.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.46 | 70 | $9,762.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $139.13 | 70 | $9,739.10 | $9,776.93 |
$-23.10 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $141.63 | 69 | $9,772.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:30pm ET | $142.18 | 69 | $9,810.42 | $9,814.88 |
+$37.95 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $145.48 | 67 | $9,747.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $145.83 | 67 | $9,770.61 | $9,838.33 |
+$23.45 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $145.92 | 67 | $9,776.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $146.11 | 67 | $9,789.04 | $9,850.72 |
+$12.39 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $145.83 | 67 | $9,770.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $145.89 | 67 | $9,774.40 | $9,854.85 |
+$4.13 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $145.68 | 67 | $9,760.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.78 | 67 | $9,700.26 | $9,794.55 |
$-60.30 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $144.43 | 67 | $9,676.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $144.58 | 67 | $9,686.79 | $9,804.53 |
+$9.98 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.45 | 66 | $9,797.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $148.35 | 66 | $9,791.10 | $9,797.76 |
$-6.76 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $149.79 | 65 | $9,736.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $149.22 | 65 | $9,699.19 | $9,760.60 |
$-37.16 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $155.19 | 62 | $9,621.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $158.00 | 62 | $9,796.00 | $9,934.82 |
+$174.22 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $165.60 | 59 | $9,770.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $166.43 | 59 | $9,819.08 | $9,983.79 |
+$48.97 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $167.29 | 59 | $9,870.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $166.39 | 59 | $9,816.83 | $9,930.52 |
$-53.28 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $166.95 | 59 | $9,850.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $167.24 | 59 | $9,867.16 | $9,947.63 |
+$17.11 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $164.57 | 60 | $9,874.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $161.66 | 60 | $9,699.90 | $9,773.33 |
$-174.30 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $163.22 | 59 | $9,629.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 12:25pm ET | $163.88 | 59 | $9,668.93 | $9,812.28 |
+$38.95 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $167.88 | 58 | $9,737.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $168.02 | 58 | $9,745.16 | $9,820.40 |
+$8.12 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 2:55pm ET | $168.10 | 58 | $9,749.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $168.26 | 58 | $9,759.08 | $9,829.68 |
+$9.28 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $168.45 | 58 | $9,769.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $169.12 | 58 | $9,808.96 | $9,868.69 |
+$39.01 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:30am ET | $164.68 | 59 | $9,715.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $164.97 | 59 | $9,733.23 | $9,886.09 |
+$17.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $164.15 | 60 | $9,849.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $164.55 | 60 | $9,873.00 | $9,910.09 |
+$24.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $158.25 | 62 | $9,811.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $157.20 | 62 | $9,746.10 | $9,844.69 |
$-65.40 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:25pm ET | $162.13 | 60 | $9,727.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $159.54 | 60 | $9,572.40 | $9,689.59 |
$-155.10 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $159.37 | 60 | $9,562.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $160.04 | 60 | $9,602.40 | $9,729.79 |
+$40.20 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $157.96 | 61 | $9,635.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $158.21 | 61 | $9,650.81 | $9,745.04 |
+$15.25 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $156.76 | 62 | $9,718.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.25 | 62 | $9,625.50 | $9,651.73 |
$-93.31 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:30pm ET | $153.09 | 63 | $9,644.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET | $153.49 | 63 | $9,669.56 | $9,676.62 |
+$24.89 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $149.85 | 64 | $9,590.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.92 | 64 | $9,722.88 | $9,808.78 |
+$132.16 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $149.81 | 65 | $9,737.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $150.08 | 65 | $9,755.20 | $9,826.33 |
+$17.55 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $151.82 | 64 | $9,716.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $151.92 | 64 | $9,722.88 | $9,833.05 |
+$6.72 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:00pm ET | $157.50 | 62 | $9,765.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $158.04 | 62 | $9,798.48 | $9,866.53 |
+$33.48 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.75 | 64 | $9,840.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $154.58 | 64 | $9,893.12 | $9,919.65 |
+$53.12 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $155.81 | 63 | $9,816.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:30pm ET | $156.11 | 63 | $9,834.93 | $9,938.55 |
+$18.90 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $153.42 | 64 | $9,818.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $153.32 | 64 | $9,812.54 | $9,932.21 |
$-6.34 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:55pm ET | $157.57 | 63 | $9,927.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $157.54 | 63 | $9,925.02 | $9,930.19 |
$-2.02 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $155.61 | 63 | $9,803.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $155.68 | 63 | $9,807.84 | $9,934.60 |
+$4.41 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $155.63 | 63 | $9,804.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.00 | 63 | $9,765.00 | $9,894.91 |
$-39.69 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $157.71 | 62 | $9,778.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $157.98 | 62 | $9,794.76 | $9,911.39 |
+$16.48 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $157.08 | 63 | $9,896.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $156.31 | 63 | $9,847.53 | $9,862.88 |
$-48.51 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $154.75 | 63 | $9,749.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.01 | 63 | $9,765.63 | $9,879.26 |
+$16.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $155.54 | 63 | $9,799.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $155.88 | 63 | $9,820.44 | $9,900.68 |
+$21.42 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $155.15 | 63 | $9,774.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.74 | 63 | $9,874.31 | $10,000.54 |
+$99.86 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.9h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.53 | 64 | $9,953.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.15 | 64 | $9,993.60 | $10,040.22 |
+$39.68 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:00pm ET | $158.07 | 63 | $9,958.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $157.08 | 63 | $9,896.04 | $9,977.69 |
$-62.53 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $153.04 | 65 | $9,947.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $154.06 | 65 | $10,013.90 | $10,043.99 |
+$66.30 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,043.99
Net Profit/Loss:
+$43.99
Total Return:
+0.44%