SCHW Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+0.32%
Year to Date Return
$12,815.60
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$12,774.38
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49 neutral
20d Trend
-0.0%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.1/35
Total Return
12.2/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
45.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 44.8
30-Day Momentum
36
+1.6%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.6
Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,049
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,774.38
Current Value
$12,815.60
Period P&L
$41.19
Max Drawdown
-7.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
33 /
17
Best Trade
+1.51%
Worst Trade
-2.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
8.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,263,836.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$41.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$41.19
Gross Return
+0.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SCHW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,774.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:05pm ET | $103.88 | 122 | $12,673.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $104.66 | 122 | $12,768.52 | $12,869.55 |
+$95.15 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $103.41 | 124 | $12,822.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:40am ET | $102.74 | 124 | $12,739.76 | $12,786.47 |
$-83.08 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $101.74 | 125 | $12,717.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $101.41 | 125 | $12,675.63 | $12,744.60 |
$-41.87 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $100.20 | 127 | $12,724.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $100.58 | 127 | $12,773.66 | $12,793.49 |
+$48.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $101.25 | 126 | $12,757.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $101.19 | 126 | $12,749.94 | $12,785.91 |
$-7.59 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:50pm ET | $103.18 | 123 | $12,691.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $102.89 | 123 | $12,654.86 | $12,749.62 |
$-36.29 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $104.56 | 121 | $12,651.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $102.91 | 121 | $12,451.51 | $12,549.29 |
$-200.33 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $103.40 | 121 | $12,511.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $103.85 | 121 | $12,565.25 | $12,603.14 |
+$53.84 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $102.12 | 123 | $12,560.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $103.18 | 123 | $12,691.14 | $12,733.52 |
+$130.38 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $102.58 | 124 | $12,719.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $103.09 | 124 | $12,783.16 | $12,796.76 |
+$63.24 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $103.09 | 124 | $12,783.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $103.29 | 124 | $12,807.96 | $12,821.56 |
+$24.80 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $103.15 | 124 | $12,790.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:35pm ET | $103.09 | 124 | $12,783.16 | $12,814.12 |
$-7.44 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $103.13 | 124 | $12,788.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $103.73 | 124 | $12,862.52 | $12,888.52 |
+$74.40 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $103.25 | 124 | $12,803.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $103.11 | 124 | $12,785.64 | $12,871.16 |
$-17.36 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $103.08 | 124 | $12,781.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $103.48 | 124 | $12,831.52 | $12,920.76 |
+$49.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $101.99 | 126 | $12,850.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $102.49 | 126 | $12,913.74 | $12,983.76 |
+$63.00 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $106.86 | 121 | $12,929.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $107.06 | 121 | $12,953.66 | $13,007.96 |
+$24.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $98.55 | 131 | $12,910.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $96.70 | 131 | $12,667.70 | $12,765.61 |
$-242.35 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $93.12 | 137 | $12,757.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $93.02 | 137 | $12,743.74 | $12,751.91 |
$-13.70 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $95.19 | 133 | $12,660.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $95.65 | 133 | $12,722.11 | $12,813.75 |
+$61.84 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $93.10 | 137 | $12,754.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $93.29 | 137 | $12,781.41 | $12,840.46 |
+$26.71 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $92.34 | 139 | $12,835.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $92.16 | 139 | $12,810.24 | $12,815.44 |
$-25.02 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $96.05 | 133 | $12,774.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $96.50 | 133 | $12,834.50 | $12,875.29 |
+$59.85 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:20pm ET | $95.90 | 134 | $12,850.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $93.84 | 134 | $12,574.56 | $12,599.25 |
$-276.04 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $95.96 | 131 | $12,570.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $96.17 | 131 | $12,598.27 | $12,626.76 |
+$27.51 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $94.45 | 133 | $12,561.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $94.64 | 133 | $12,586.79 | $12,651.70 |
+$24.94 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.05 | 134 | $12,602.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $93.44 | 134 | $12,521.63 | $12,570.63 |
$-81.07 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $93.10 | 135 | $12,568.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $91.93 | 135 | $12,411.22 | $12,413.35 |
$-157.28 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $90.56 | 137 | $12,406.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:05pm ET | $90.91 | 137 | $12,454.67 | $12,461.30 |
+$47.95 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $93.72 | 132 | $12,371.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $94.09 | 132 | $12,419.88 | $12,510.14 |
+$48.84 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $93.09 | 134 | $12,474.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $93.29 | 134 | $12,500.19 | $12,536.27 |
+$26.13 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $93.95 | 133 | $12,495.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $94.28 | 133 | $12,538.58 | $12,579.50 |
+$43.23 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $95.77 | 131 | $12,545.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $96.06 | 131 | $12,583.21 | $12,616.84 |
+$37.34 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.68 | 133 | $12,591.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $94.96 | 133 | $12,629.02 | $12,654.08 |
+$37.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $92.86 | 136 | $12,628.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $92.36 | 136 | $12,560.28 | $12,586.08 |
$-68.00 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $93.24 | 134 | $12,493.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $93.29 | 134 | $12,500.86 | $12,593.45 |
+$7.37 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $93.38 | 134 | $12,512.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $93.54 | 134 | $12,533.69 | $12,614.89 |
+$21.44 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $92.20 | 136 | $12,538.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $92.11 | 136 | $12,527.64 | $12,603.68 |
$-11.21 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $95.88 | 131 | $12,560.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 12:00pm ET | $96.08 | 131 | $12,586.48 | $12,629.88 |
+$26.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $96.50 | 130 | $12,545.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $94.46 | 130 | $12,279.80 | $12,364.68 |
$-265.20 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:55am ET | $98.52 | 125 | $12,315.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $98.85 | 125 | $12,356.25 | $12,405.93 |
+$41.25 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $99.93 | 124 | $12,391.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $100.30 | 124 | $12,437.20 | $12,451.81 |
+$45.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $90.69 | 137 | $12,424.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $92.06 | 137 | $12,612.22 | $12,639.50 |
+$187.69 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $92.55 | 136 | $12,586.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $92.92 | 136 | $12,636.44 | $12,689.09 |
+$49.59 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $92.03 | 137 | $12,608.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $92.49 | 137 | $12,671.13 | $12,752.11 |
+$63.02 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $89.82 | 141 | $12,664.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:20pm ET | $88.57 | 141 | $12,487.67 | $12,575.16 |
$-176.95 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $89.17 | 141 | $12,572.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $89.21 | 141 | $12,579.31 | $12,581.50 |
+$6.34 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $90.45 | 139 | $12,572.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $90.72 | 139 | $12,610.08 | $12,619.03 |
+$37.53 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $90.39 | 139 | $12,564.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $91.00 | 139 | $12,649.00 | $12,703.13 |
+$84.10 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $91.51 | 138 | $12,629.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $92.33 | 138 | $12,741.54 | $12,815.60 |
+$112.47 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,815.60
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,815.60
Total Return:
+28.16%