SMCI Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
-8.03%
Year to Date Return
$6,984.22
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$7,593.87
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
14.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 14.6
30-Day Momentum
25
+1.2%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.0
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,360
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,593.87
Current Value
$6,984.22
Period P&L
$-609.67
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
31 /
20
Best Trade
+2.87%
Worst Trade
-8.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
5.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$773,312.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-609.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$-609.67
Gross Return
-8.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,593.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $30.88 | 245 | $7,565.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $31.08 | 245 | $7,613.38 | $7,641.71 |
+$47.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $30.09 | 253 | $7,612.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.33 | 253 | $7,673.52 | $7,702.48 |
+$60.77 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $29.98 | 256 | $7,674.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:35pm ET | $30.07 | 256 | $7,696.64 | $7,724.19 |
+$21.71 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $29.73 | 259 | $7,700.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $30.17 | 259 | $7,812.74 | $7,836.85 |
+$112.67 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $30.12 | 260 | $7,829.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $30.25 | 260 | $7,863.70 | $7,870.65 |
+$33.80 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:05pm ET | $28.22 | 278 | $7,846.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET | $28.31 | 278 | $7,870.18 | $7,894.76 |
+$24.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $29.39 | 268 | $7,876.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $29.64 | 268 | $7,943.52 | $7,961.76 |
+$67.00 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.52 | 260 | $7,935.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $31.25 | 260 | $8,123.70 | $8,150.26 |
+$188.50 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $31.25 | 260 | $8,125.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:35pm ET | $31.31 | 260 | $8,141.48 | $8,166.47 |
+$16.22 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $32.41 | 251 | $8,134.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $32.59 | 251 | $8,180.09 | $8,212.00 |
+$45.53 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.88 | 265 | $8,183.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $31.38 | 265 | $8,314.38 | $8,343.18 |
+$131.18 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $30.95 | 269 | $8,325.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $30.96 | 269 | $8,328.24 | $8,345.87 |
+$2.69 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $31.14 | 268 | $8,344.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.48 | 268 | $8,168.64 | $8,170.33 |
$-175.54 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $29.74 | 274 | $8,148.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:55pm ET | $29.61 | 274 | $8,113.14 | $8,134.71 |
$-35.62 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $30.47 | 266 | $8,105.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.83 | 266 | $7,935.90 | $7,965.58 |
$-169.12 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $32.68 | 243 | $7,941.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $32.64 | 243 | $7,932.25 | $7,955.87 |
$-9.72 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $30.77 | 258 | $7,938.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $30.85 | 258 | $7,959.30 | $7,976.32 |
+$20.46 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.86 | 242 | $7,952.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $33.76 | 242 | $8,168.71 | $8,192.91 |
+$216.59 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $33.75 | 242 | $8,167.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.41 | 242 | $8,085.22 | $8,110.63 |
$-82.28 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $29.97 | 270 | $8,090.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.09 | 270 | $8,124.30 | $8,144.38 |
+$33.75 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $30.15 | 270 | $8,140.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $29.70 | 270 | $8,019.00 | $8,022.88 |
$-121.50 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $32.00 | 250 | $8,000.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $31.93 | 250 | $7,982.50 | $8,005.38 |
$-17.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.45 | 262 | $7,977.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.81 | 262 | $8,072.22 | $8,099.70 |
+$94.32 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.07 | 244 | $8,069.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $31.86 | 244 | $7,773.84 | $7,804.46 |
$-295.24 (-3.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $32.22 | 242 | $7,797.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $32.51 | 242 | $7,868.63 | $7,875.83 |
+$71.37 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.78 | 255 | $7,850.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.68 | 255 | $7,824.67 | $7,850.33 |
$-25.50 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $32.74 | 239 | $7,824.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $31.91 | 239 | $7,626.49 | $7,651.96 |
$-198.37 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $31.49 | 243 | $7,650.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $31.26 | 243 | $7,596.06 | $7,597.16 |
$-54.80 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $31.84 | 238 | $7,577.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $32.06 | 238 | $7,630.28 | $7,649.52 |
+$52.36 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $31.35 | 244 | $7,649.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $30.99 | 244 | $7,561.56 | $7,561.68 |
$-87.84 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.53 | 247 | $7,542.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $30.55 | 247 | $7,544.62 | $7,564.15 |
+$2.47 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $31.98 | 236 | $7,546.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.87 | 236 | $7,521.30 | $7,539.35 |
$-24.80 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $30.56 | 246 | $7,516.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $30.48 | 246 | $7,498.08 | $7,520.90 |
$-18.45 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $21.44 | 350 | $7,505.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $19.61 | 350 | $6,865.25 | $6,880.40 |
$-640.50 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $21.12 | 325 | $6,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $21.62 | 325 | $7,026.50 | $7,042.90 |
+$162.50 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.41 | 300 | $7,023.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $22.40 | 300 | $6,718.50 | $6,738.40 |
$-304.50 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $20.82 | 323 | $6,724.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $21.09 | 323 | $6,813.68 | $6,827.22 |
+$88.82 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 300 | $6,826.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $23.00 | 300 | $6,901.50 | $6,902.22 |
+$75.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.01 | 299 | $6,879.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $22.57 | 299 | $6,748.43 | $6,770.66 |
$-131.56 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $22.20 | 304 | $6,748.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $22.60 | 304 | $6,871.92 | $6,893.78 |
+$123.12 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $23.30 | 295 | $6,872.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $23.41 | 295 | $6,904.48 | $6,926.23 |
+$32.45 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.75 | 279 | $6,905.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $24.98 | 279 | $6,968.03 | $6,989.01 |
+$62.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.18 | 257 | $6,986.54 | $6,989.01 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.69 | 261 | $6,967.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.17 | 261 | $7,090.07 | $7,111.68 |
+$122.67 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $28.34 | 250 | $7,085.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $28.57 | 250 | $7,142.48 | $7,168.66 |
+$56.98 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.93 | 247 | $7,144.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $29.11 | 247 | $7,191.40 | $7,215.07 |
+$46.41 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 272 | $7,210.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.27 | 272 | $7,417.47 | $7,421.82 |
+$206.75 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.42 | 261 | $7,417.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $27.88 | 261 | $7,276.68 | $7,280.85 |
$-140.97 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.99 | 269 | $7,260.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:20am ET | $25.88 | 269 | $6,960.38 | $6,980.92 |
$-299.93 (-4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:50pm ET | $27.55 | 253 | $6,968.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.41 | 253 | $6,933.47 | $6,945.50 |
$-35.42 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.71 | 250 | $6,927.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.86 | 250 | $6,966.25 | $6,984.22 |
+$38.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,984.22
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,015.78
Total Return:
-30.16%