TMO Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
+1.54%
Year to Date Return
$10,042.51
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$9,890.53
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.3/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
15.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 14.9
30-Day Momentum
47
+2.9%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
2.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.8
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+32 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,831
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
86 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,890.53
Current Value
$10,042.51
Period P&L
$151.94
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
33 /
18
Best Trade
+1.64%
Worst Trade
-2.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
8.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$990,618.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$151.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$151.94
Gross Return
+1.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.54%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 86 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,890.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 2:30pm ET | $581.87 | 16 | $9,309.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $581.42 | 16 | $9,302.72 | $9,866.90 |
$-7.20 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $617.16 | 15 | $9,257.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $618.98 | 15 | $9,284.70 | $9,894.20 |
+$27.30 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $616.80 | 16 | $9,868.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $618.13 | 16 | $9,890.00 | $9,915.36 |
+$21.16 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $605.26 | 16 | $9,684.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $610.23 | 16 | $9,763.60 | $9,994.88 |
+$79.52 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $609.87 | 16 | $9,757.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:55pm ET | $609.02 | 16 | $9,744.32 | $9,981.28 |
$-13.60 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $618.90 | 16 | $9,902.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $621.41 | 16 | $9,942.56 | $10,021.52 |
+$40.24 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $625.75 | 16 | $10,011.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $625.18 | 16 | $10,002.88 | $10,012.48 |
$-9.04 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $615.55 | 16 | $9,848.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $617.31 | 16 | $9,876.96 | $10,040.72 |
+$28.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $636.80 | 15 | $9,552.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $638.89 | 15 | $9,583.35 | $10,072.07 |
+$31.35 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $623.93 | 16 | $9,982.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $624.72 | 16 | $9,995.52 | $10,084.71 |
+$12.64 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:45pm ET | $628.08 | 16 | $10,049.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $627.62 | 16 | $10,041.92 | $10,077.35 |
$-7.36 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $613.60 | 16 | $9,817.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $610.24 | 16 | $9,763.84 | $10,023.59 |
$-53.76 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $584.93 | 17 | $9,943.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $583.45 | 17 | $9,918.65 | $9,998.52 |
$-25.07 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $581.61 | 17 | $9,887.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $583.40 | 17 | $9,917.80 | $10,028.86 |
+$30.35 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:10pm ET | $567.70 | 17 | $9,650.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $569.01 | 17 | $9,673.17 | $10,051.13 |
+$22.27 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $562.32 | 17 | $9,559.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $553.65 | 17 | $9,411.97 | $9,903.66 |
$-147.47 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $542.70 | 18 | $9,768.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $538.62 | 18 | $9,695.16 | $9,830.22 |
$-73.44 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $544.35 | 18 | $9,798.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $547.14 | 18 | $9,848.52 | $9,880.35 |
+$50.13 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $529.03 | 18 | $9,522.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:20am ET | $530.45 | 18 | $9,548.10 | $9,905.91 |
+$25.56 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $499.88 | 19 | $9,497.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $506.48 | 19 | $9,623.21 | $10,031.50 |
+$125.59 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $509.56 | 19 | $9,681.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $510.08 | 19 | $9,691.52 | $10,041.38 |
+$9.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $509.96 | 19 | $9,689.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $513.01 | 19 | $9,747.19 | $10,099.33 |
+$57.95 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $509.20 | 19 | $9,674.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $510.94 | 19 | $9,707.86 | $10,132.30 |
+$32.97 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:15pm ET | $514.46 | 19 | $9,774.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $515.97 | 19 | $9,803.52 | $10,161.08 |
+$28.78 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $515.08 | 19 | $9,786.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $516.94 | 19 | $9,821.86 | $10,196.42 |
+$35.34 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $512.74 | 19 | $9,742.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $506.02 | 19 | $9,614.38 | $10,068.74 |
$-127.68 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $504.61 | 19 | $9,587.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $512.91 | 19 | $9,745.20 | $10,226.35 |
+$157.61 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $500.55 | 20 | $10,010.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $496.52 | 20 | $9,930.30 | $10,145.75 |
$-80.60 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $500.49 | 20 | $10,009.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $502.67 | 20 | $10,053.50 | $10,189.37 |
+$43.62 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.11 | 20 | $9,762.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $477.86 | 20 | $9,557.20 | $9,984.37 |
$-205.00 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $466.15 | 21 | $9,789.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $467.18 | 21 | $9,810.78 | $10,005.89 |
+$21.52 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $473.55 | 21 | $9,944.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $474.17 | 21 | $9,957.47 | $10,018.91 |
+$13.02 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $463.52 | 21 | $9,733.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $464.73 | 21 | $9,759.43 | $10,044.42 |
+$25.51 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $473.23 | 21 | $9,937.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $474.28 | 21 | $9,959.88 | $10,066.47 |
+$22.05 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $479.30 | 21 | $10,065.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $470.00 | 21 | $9,870.00 | $9,871.07 |
$-195.40 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $484.93 | 20 | $9,698.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $488.40 | 20 | $9,768.00 | $9,940.47 |
+$69.40 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:30pm ET | $489.00 | 20 | $9,780.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $479.18 | 20 | $9,583.65 | $9,744.12 |
$-196.35 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $495.17 | 19 | $9,408.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $495.77 | 19 | $9,419.63 | $9,755.52 |
+$11.40 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $487.41 | 20 | $9,748.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $488.61 | 20 | $9,772.30 | $9,779.62 |
+$24.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.42 | 19 | $9,450.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $496.08 | 19 | $9,425.61 | $9,754.25 |
$-25.37 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $498.10 | 19 | $9,463.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $499.07 | 19 | $9,482.33 | $9,772.68 |
+$18.43 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $525.22 | 18 | $9,453.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $523.68 | 18 | $9,426.24 | $9,744.96 |
$-27.72 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $525.74 | 18 | $9,463.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $525.71 | 18 | $9,462.78 | $9,744.33 |
$-0.63 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $525.10 | 18 | $9,451.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $527.05 | 18 | $9,486.90 | $9,779.34 |
+$35.01 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:20am ET | $516.55 | 18 | $9,297.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $517.87 | 18 | $9,321.66 | $9,803.01 |
+$23.67 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $457.67 | 21 | $9,611.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $459.25 | 21 | $9,644.25 | $9,836.19 |
+$33.18 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $468.40 | 20 | $9,368.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $473.77 | 20 | $9,475.50 | $9,943.59 |
+$107.40 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $464.39 | 21 | $9,752.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $467.90 | 21 | $9,825.90 | $10,017.30 |
+$73.71 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:25pm ET | $465.86 | 21 | $9,783.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $464.92 | 21 | $9,763.32 | $9,997.46 |
$-19.84 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $472.33 | 21 | $9,919.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $470.13 | 21 | $9,872.73 | $9,951.16 |
$-46.30 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $462.49 | 21 | $9,712.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $466.84 | 21 | $9,803.64 | $10,042.51 |
+$91.35 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,042.51
Net Profit/Loss:
+$42.51
Total Return:
+0.43%