TQQQ Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 51 trades in period
+3.67%
Year to Date Return
$10,519.86
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,147.22
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.0/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
21.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 21.1
30-Day Momentum
65
+6.5%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
3.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 68.6
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+44 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,504
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,147.22
Current Value
$10,519.86
Period P&L
$372.65
Max Drawdown
-17.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
30 /
21
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-3.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
4.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,041,046.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$372.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$372.65
Gross Return
+3.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.67%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,147.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 2:30pm ET | $53.25 | 192 | $10,223.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.13 | 192 | $10,392.96 | $10,419.86 |
+$169.92 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $53.87 | 193 | $10,396.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $53.78 | 193 | $10,379.31 | $10,402.26 |
$-17.60 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $55.83 | 186 | $10,385.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $56.02 | 186 | $10,420.19 | $10,437.36 |
+$35.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $53.77 | 194 | $10,431.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $53.92 | 194 | $10,459.86 | $10,465.86 |
+$28.50 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.77 | 187 | $10,428.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.31 | 187 | $10,342.05 | $10,378.92 |
$-86.94 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.77 | 186 | $10,372.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $55.61 | 186 | $10,342.53 | $10,348.51 |
$-30.41 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $55.33 | 187 | $10,345.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $55.50 | 187 | $10,378.50 | $10,381.24 |
+$32.72 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.05 | 199 | $10,357.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.76 | 199 | $10,300.22 | $10,323.89 |
$-57.35 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.65 | 199 | $10,278.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $51.29 | 199 | $10,206.71 | $10,252.25 |
$-71.64 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $53.99 | 189 | $10,203.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $54.16 | 189 | $10,235.30 | $10,284.38 |
+$32.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $54.23 | 189 | $10,248.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $54.41 | 189 | $10,283.49 | $10,319.34 |
+$34.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $55.18 | 187 | $10,318.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.84 | 187 | $10,441.15 | $10,441.83 |
+$122.49 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $56.87 | 183 | $10,407.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $57.13 | 183 | $10,453.88 | $10,488.49 |
+$46.67 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $54.58 | 192 | $10,479.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $54.28 | 192 | $10,422.03 | $10,431.16 |
$-57.33 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $55.40 | 188 | $10,416.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.06 | 188 | $10,351.28 | $10,366.30 |
$-64.86 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.97 | 203 | $10,346.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $49.42 | 203 | $10,032.26 | $10,051.65 |
$-314.65 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $50.13 | 200 | $10,026.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $50.30 | 200 | $10,060.00 | $10,085.65 |
+$34.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $51.81 | 194 | $10,050.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.92 | 194 | $10,072.62 | $10,108.09 |
+$22.45 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
24m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.49 | 200 | $10,098.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $51.27 | 200 | $10,254.00 | $10,264.09 |
+$156.00 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.72 | 215 | $10,259.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $47.30 | 215 | $10,169.50 | $10,173.79 |
$-90.30 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET | $49.81 | 204 | $10,160.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $49.29 | 204 | $10,055.16 | $10,068.73 |
$-105.06 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.95 | 209 | $10,021.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.63 | 209 | $10,163.42 | $10,210.60 |
+$141.87 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.47 | 206 | $10,190.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $48.18 | 206 | $9,925.59 | $9,945.37 |
$-265.23 (-2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $51.72 | 192 | $9,931.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:40pm ET | $51.81 | 192 | $9,947.50 | $9,961.67 |
+$16.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.49 | 205 | $9,940.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $49.38 | 205 | $10,121.88 | $10,143.09 |
+$181.42 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $49.40 | 205 | $10,127.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $49.74 | 205 | $10,195.68 | $10,211.76 |
+$68.67 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $50.42 | 202 | $10,184.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.47 | 202 | $9,992.94 | $10,020.57 |
$-191.19 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.67 | 210 | $10,011.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $48.52 | 210 | $10,190.02 | $10,199.32 |
+$178.75 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $49.77 | 204 | $10,153.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.82 | 204 | $10,163.28 | $10,209.52 |
+$10.20 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.17 | 211 | $10,164.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $47.53 | 211 | $10,028.83 | $10,073.42 |
$-136.10 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $45.74 | 220 | $10,061.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:35pm ET | $46.13 | 220 | $10,147.68 | $10,159.40 |
+$85.98 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.68 | 213 | $10,155.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $47.64 | 213 | $10,147.87 | $10,151.43 |
$-7.97 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $44.06 | 230 | $10,133.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $44.06 | 230 | $10,133.80 | $10,151.66 |
+$0.23 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $45.36 | 223 | $10,115.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $44.87 | 223 | $10,004.90 | $10,041.25 |
$-110.41 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $44.21 | 227 | $10,035.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.44 | 227 | $10,089.01 | $10,094.60 |
+$53.35 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.44 | 249 | $10,069.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $39.89 | 249 | $9,932.61 | $9,957.65 |
$-136.95 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $38.06 | 261 | $9,933.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $37.96 | 261 | $9,907.56 | $9,931.52 |
$-26.13 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.54 | 228 | $9,928.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $43.30 | 228 | $9,872.97 | $9,876.23 |
$-55.29 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $43.35 | 227 | $9,840.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $43.81 | 227 | $9,944.87 | $9,980.17 |
+$103.94 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $42.67 | 233 | $9,942.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $43.74 | 233 | $10,191.12 | $10,229.18 |
+$249.01 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $49.09 | 208 | $10,210.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:50pm ET | $49.03 | 208 | $10,199.28 | $10,217.74 |
$-11.44 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $52.75 | 193 | $10,180.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $53.07 | 193 | $10,242.45 | $10,279.44 |
+$61.70 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $55.88 | 183 | $10,226.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $56.17 | 183 | $10,280.02 | $10,333.42 |
+$53.98 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.04 | 178 | $10,331.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $57.58 | 178 | $10,250.13 | $10,252.45 |
$-80.97 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $57.51 | 178 | $10,237.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $57.92 | 178 | $10,309.76 | $10,324.54 |
+$72.09 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $59.66 | 173 | $10,321.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $59.87 | 173 | $10,357.79 | $10,361.15 |
+$36.61 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $62.15 | 166 | $10,317.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $61.71 | 166 | $10,243.86 | $10,287.28 |
$-73.87 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.56 | 169 | $10,234.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $60.87 | 169 | $10,287.03 | $10,339.65 |
+$52.37 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $61.04 | 169 | $10,315.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $61.56 | 169 | $10,403.66 | $10,427.55 |
+$87.90 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $65.18 | 159 | $10,363.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $65.54 | 159 | $10,420.86 | $10,484.46 |
+$56.91 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $67.14 | 156 | $10,473.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $67.36 | 156 | $10,508.94 | $10,519.86 |
+$35.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,519.86
Net Profit/Loss:
+$519.86
Total Return:
+5.20%