WMT Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
+3.63%
Year to Date Return
$11,629.88
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$11,222.18
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.4/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
38.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 38.4
30-Day Momentum
19
-0.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.0
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,194
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,222.18
Current Value
$11,629.88
Period P&L
$407.75
Max Drawdown
-4.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
34 /
14
Best Trade
+2.21%
Worst Trade
-3.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,095,397.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$407.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$407.75
Gross Return
+3.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,222.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $112.32 | 99 | $11,119.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $112.59 | 99 | $11,145.92 | $11,248.86 |
+$26.73 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $112.63 | 99 | $11,149.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.21 | 99 | $11,207.79 | $11,306.77 |
+$57.91 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.70 | 99 | $11,255.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $112.80 | 99 | $11,166.71 | $11,217.67 |
$-89.10 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $112.90 | 99 | $11,176.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $113.22 | 99 | $11,208.76 | $11,249.77 |
+$32.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $114.53 | 98 | $11,223.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $117.06 | 98 | $11,471.88 | $11,497.71 |
+$247.94 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $119.81 | 95 | $11,381.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $120.12 | 95 | $11,410.93 | $11,526.68 |
+$28.97 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $120.04 | 96 | $11,523.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $119.79 | 96 | $11,499.84 | $11,502.68 |
$-24.00 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $118.25 | 97 | $11,470.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $118.48 | 97 | $11,492.80 | $11,525.24 |
+$22.55 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $118.11 | 97 | $11,456.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:15pm ET | $118.29 | 97 | $11,474.13 | $11,542.70 |
+$17.46 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $118.76 | 97 | $11,519.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $118.59 | 97 | $11,502.75 | $11,525.72 |
$-16.98 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $117.86 | 97 | $11,432.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $118.00 | 97 | $11,445.52 | $11,538.82 |
+$13.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $117.74 | 98 | $11,538.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $117.65 | 98 | $11,529.70 | $11,530.00 |
$-8.82 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.61 | 98 | $11,427.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $116.23 | 98 | $11,390.54 | $11,492.76 |
$-37.24 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $116.87 | 98 | $11,453.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:35pm ET | $117.25 | 98 | $11,490.50 | $11,530.00 |
+$37.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:30pm ET | $128.07 | 90 | $11,526.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $128.59 | 90 | $11,572.95 | $11,576.64 |
+$46.65 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $130.06 | 89 | $11,575.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $130.96 | 89 | $11,655.44 | $11,656.74 |
+$80.10 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $128.01 | 91 | $11,649.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $127.21 | 91 | $11,576.11 | $11,583.66 |
$-73.08 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $128.79 | 89 | $11,461.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $129.05 | 89 | $11,485.89 | $11,607.69 |
+$24.03 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $133.13 | 87 | $11,582.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $128.98 | 87 | $11,221.26 | $11,246.64 |
$-361.05 (-3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $126.04 | 89 | $11,217.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:25pm ET | $126.26 | 89 | $11,237.14 | $11,266.22 |
+$19.58 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:35pm ET | $124.55 | 90 | $11,209.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.08 | 90 | $11,077.20 | $11,133.92 |
$-132.30 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $126.04 | 88 | $11,091.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $126.20 | 88 | $11,105.60 | $11,148.00 |
+$14.08 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $125.56 | 88 | $11,049.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $126.43 | 88 | $11,125.84 | $11,224.56 |
+$76.56 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 3:15pm ET | $124.54 | 90 | $11,208.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $125.55 | 90 | $11,299.50 | $11,315.46 |
+$90.90 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $127.57 | 88 | $11,226.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $127.86 | 88 | $11,251.68 | $11,340.81 |
+$25.35 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $127.33 | 89 | $11,332.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $127.59 | 89 | $11,355.51 | $11,363.50 |
+$22.69 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $122.14 | 93 | $11,358.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $123.19 | 93 | $11,456.67 | $11,461.62 |
+$98.12 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $125.14 | 91 | $11,387.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $125.25 | 91 | $11,397.75 | $11,471.63 |
+$10.01 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $125.66 | 91 | $11,435.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $125.40 | 91 | $11,411.40 | $11,447.97 |
$-23.66 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $125.63 | 91 | $11,432.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $125.64 | 91 | $11,433.24 | $11,448.88 |
+$0.91 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $122.03 | 93 | $11,348.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $122.60 | 93 | $11,401.34 | $11,501.89 |
+$53.01 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $120.12 | 95 | $11,411.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $119.36 | 95 | $11,339.67 | $11,430.16 |
$-71.73 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 3:20pm ET | $122.12 | 93 | $11,357.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.11 | 93 | $11,449.23 | $11,522.23 |
+$92.07 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $122.55 | 94 | $11,519.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $123.36 | 94 | $11,595.84 | $11,598.37 |
+$76.14 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:25pm ET | $122.89 | 94 | $11,551.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $123.27 | 94 | $11,587.38 | $11,634.10 |
+$35.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $123.36 | 94 | $11,596.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.83 | 94 | $11,640.49 | $11,678.59 |
+$44.49 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $126.23 | 92 | $11,613.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $123.39 | 92 | $11,351.88 | $11,417.31 |
$-261.28 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 3:00pm ET | $129.05 | 88 | $11,356.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $129.43 | 88 | $11,389.84 | $11,450.31 |
+$33.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $126.34 | 90 | $11,370.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $126.62 | 90 | $11,395.80 | $11,475.51 |
+$25.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $122.74 | 93 | $11,414.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $122.66 | 93 | $11,407.38 | $11,468.07 |
$-7.44 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $123.51 | 92 | $11,362.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $123.99 | 92 | $11,407.08 | $11,512.23 |
+$44.16 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:40am ET | $124.67 | 92 | $11,469.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $124.83 | 92 | $11,484.36 | $11,526.95 |
+$14.72 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $128.06 | 90 | $11,525.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $127.99 | 90 | $11,519.10 | $11,520.65 |
$-6.30 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $129.07 | 89 | $11,487.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $129.68 | 89 | $11,541.51 | $11,574.93 |
+$54.28 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $130.79 | 88 | $11,509.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $131.61 | 88 | $11,581.68 | $11,647.53 |
+$72.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $129.52 | 89 | $11,527.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $130.02 | 89 | $11,571.78 | $11,692.03 |
+$44.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:35pm ET | $127.92 | 91 | $11,640.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:00pm ET | $127.15 | 91 | $11,570.65 | $11,621.96 |
$-70.07 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $131.35 | 88 | $11,558.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $131.44 | 88 | $11,566.72 | $11,629.88 |
+$7.92 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,629.88
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,629.88
Total Return:
+16.30%