XLK Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
+4.77%
Year to Date Return
$11,366.11
Current Value
72%
Win Rate
$10,849.00
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.1/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
31.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 31.0
30-Day Momentum
52
+3.2%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
11
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 57.7
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,436
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,849.00
Current Value
$11,366.11
Period P&L
$517.12
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
36 /
14
Best Trade
+2.22%
Worst Trade
-1.91%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,094,558.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$517.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$517.12
Gross Return
+4.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,849.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $145.32 | 74 | $10,753.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $144.87 | 74 | $10,720.37 | $10,815.69 |
$-33.31 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.39 | 73 | $10,686.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $146.70 | 73 | $10,709.10 | $10,838.32 |
+$22.63 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $143.69 | 75 | $10,776.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $143.98 | 75 | $10,798.50 | $10,860.07 |
+$21.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $146.21 | 74 | $10,819.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.37 | 74 | $10,831.38 | $10,871.91 |
+$11.84 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $146.80 | 74 | $10,862.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $146.53 | 74 | $10,843.22 | $10,852.30 |
$-19.61 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:35pm ET | $143.39 | 75 | $10,754.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $143.77 | 75 | $10,782.38 | $10,880.42 |
+$28.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:00pm ET | $146.53 | 74 | $10,843.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.72 | 74 | $10,857.28 | $10,894.48 |
+$14.06 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.83 | 75 | $10,787.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $143.48 | 75 | $10,761.00 | $10,868.23 |
$-26.25 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $143.02 | 75 | $10,726.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $142.54 | 75 | $10,690.50 | $10,832.23 |
$-36.00 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $144.98 | 74 | $10,728.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:20pm ET | $145.18 | 74 | $10,743.32 | $10,847.03 |
+$14.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
24m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $144.78 | 74 | $10,713.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:40pm ET | $145.06 | 74 | $10,734.44 | $10,868.12 |
+$21.09 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $146.21 | 74 | $10,819.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.32 | 74 | $10,901.50 | $10,950.45 |
+$82.32 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $148.67 | 73 | $10,852.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $149.01 | 73 | $10,878.08 | $10,975.62 |
+$25.17 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $145.22 | 75 | $10,891.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $146.05 | 75 | $10,953.75 | $11,037.87 |
+$62.25 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $145.76 | 75 | $10,932.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $145.24 | 75 | $10,893.37 | $10,999.24 |
$-38.62 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $140.04 | 78 | $10,923.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $137.37 | 78 | $10,714.86 | $10,790.98 |
$-208.26 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $135.62 | 79 | $10,713.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.63 | 79 | $10,951.77 | $11,028.77 |
+$237.79 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $143.33 | 76 | $10,892.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $143.47 | 76 | $10,903.73 | $11,039.79 |
+$11.02 (+0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
24m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.45 | 79 | $10,937.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $138.16 | 79 | $10,914.64 | $11,017.27 |
$-22.52 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $141.61 | 77 | $10,903.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $140.76 | 77 | $10,838.14 | $10,951.44 |
$-65.83 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.07 | 78 | $10,847.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $140.00 | 78 | $10,920.00 | $11,023.98 |
+$72.54 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $140.32 | 78 | $10,944.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $138.70 | 78 | $10,818.21 | $10,897.23 |
$-126.75 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $140.44 | 77 | $10,813.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:50pm ET | $140.46 | 77 | $10,815.22 | $10,898.57 |
+$1.34 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $143.01 | 76 | $10,868.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $142.26 | 76 | $10,811.76 | $10,841.57 |
$-57.00 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.34 | 78 | $10,790.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $139.45 | 78 | $10,877.10 | $10,928.54 |
+$86.97 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:50pm ET | $139.30 | 78 | $10,865.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $139.73 | 78 | $10,898.94 | $10,962.08 |
+$33.54 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $140.15 | 78 | $10,931.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $140.38 | 78 | $10,949.64 | $10,980.41 |
+$18.33 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $138.60 | 79 | $10,949.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $139.20 | 79 | $10,996.80 | $11,027.42 |
+$47.01 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $140.37 | 78 | $10,948.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $140.84 | 78 | $10,985.13 | $11,063.69 |
+$36.27 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.24 | 79 | $10,999.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $138.51 | 79 | $10,942.29 | $11,006.02 |
$-57.67 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $136.71 | 80 | $10,936.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:35pm ET | $137.07 | 80 | $10,966.00 | $11,035.22 |
+$29.20 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $138.76 | 79 | $10,961.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.22 | 79 | $10,998.38 | $11,071.95 |
+$36.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET | $139.02 | 79 | $10,982.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 1:35pm ET | $139.27 | 79 | $11,002.72 | $11,092.09 |
+$20.14 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $136.34 | 81 | $11,043.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $136.46 | 81 | $11,052.86 | $11,101.41 |
+$9.32 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $137.74 | 80 | $11,019.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $137.10 | 80 | $10,968.00 | $11,050.21 |
$-51.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $136.51 | 80 | $10,920.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $136.79 | 80 | $10,942.80 | $11,072.21 |
+$22.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $132.50 | 83 | $10,997.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.62 | 83 | $10,924.67 | $10,999.38 |
$-72.83 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $129.12 | 85 | $10,975.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $129.54 | 85 | $11,010.90 | $11,035.08 |
+$35.70 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $135.26 | 81 | $10,955.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $135.04 | 81 | $10,937.84 | $11,017.26 |
$-17.82 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $135.88 | 81 | $11,006.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $136.47 | 81 | $11,054.07 | $11,065.05 |
+$47.79 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $135.98 | 81 | $11,013.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $136.91 | 81 | $11,089.71 | $11,140.78 |
+$75.73 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $142.24 | 78 | $11,095.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $142.93 | 78 | $11,148.15 | $11,193.82 |
+$53.04 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.76 | 75 | $11,156.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $148.95 | 75 | $11,170.88 | $11,208.08 |
+$14.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $151.10 | 74 | $11,181.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $151.52 | 74 | $11,212.85 | $11,239.21 |
+$31.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $153.66 | 73 | $11,217.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $153.79 | 73 | $11,226.31 | $11,248.34 |
+$9.13 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $154.59 | 72 | $11,130.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $155.18 | 72 | $11,172.96 | $11,290.82 |
+$42.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.57 | 72 | $11,273.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $157.21 | 72 | $11,318.76 | $11,336.54 |
+$45.72 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $159.37 | 71 | $11,315.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $159.52 | 71 | $11,326.27 | $11,347.54 |
+$11.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $158.18 | 71 | $11,230.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $158.20 | 71 | $11,232.20 | $11,348.96 |
+$1.42 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $161.83 | 70 | $11,328.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $162.07 | 70 | $11,345.25 | $11,366.11 |
+$17.15 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,366.11
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,366.11
Total Return:
+13.66%