XOM Professor Mean's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
-12.47%
Year to Date Return
$9,417.52
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$10,758.80
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
13.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 13.0
30-Day Momentum
10
-6.4%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,345
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,758.80
Current Value
$9,417.52
Period P&L
$-1,341.22
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
24 /
23
Best Trade
+1.41%
Worst Trade
-4.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
10.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$965,877.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,341.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,341.22
Gross Return
-12.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,758.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $122.28 | 87 | $10,638.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $122.64 | 87 | $10,669.68 | $10,789.84 |
+$31.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $124.58 | 86 | $10,713.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.13 | 86 | $10,244.75 | $10,320.71 |
$-469.13 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $122.83 | 84 | $10,317.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.39 | 84 | $10,364.76 | $10,367.75 |
+$47.04 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $123.61 | 83 | $10,259.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $123.43 | 83 | $10,244.69 | $10,352.81 |
$-14.94 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $125.91 | 82 | $10,324.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $126.47 | 82 | $10,370.54 | $10,399.14 |
+$46.33 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.61 | 80 | $10,288.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $130.05 | 80 | $10,404.00 | $10,514.34 |
+$115.20 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $129.58 | 81 | $10,495.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $129.81 | 81 | $10,514.61 | $10,533.38 |
+$19.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
12m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $130.46 | 80 | $10,436.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $130.62 | 80 | $10,449.60 | $10,546.18 |
+$12.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
42m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.08 | 79 | $10,513.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $132.65 | 79 | $10,479.35 | $10,512.21 |
$-33.97 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $134.91 | 77 | $10,387.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $135.69 | 77 | $10,448.13 | $10,572.65 |
+$60.44 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $136.14 | 77 | $10,482.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $136.58 | 77 | $10,516.66 | $10,606.53 |
+$33.88 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $139.20 | 76 | $10,579.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 12:20pm ET | $139.82 | 76 | $10,626.32 | $10,653.65 |
+$47.12 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $138.62 | 76 | $10,535.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:35pm ET | $138.52 | 76 | $10,527.59 | $10,646.12 |
$-7.53 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $138.13 | 77 | $10,636.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $138.96 | 77 | $10,699.92 | $10,710.03 |
+$63.91 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.62 | 74 | $10,701.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $144.54 | 74 | $10,695.96 | $10,704.48 |
$-5.55 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $148.84 | 71 | $10,567.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $150.31 | 71 | $10,672.01 | $10,808.85 |
+$104.37 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $150.35 | 71 | $10,675.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $150.85 | 71 | $10,710.35 | $10,844.00 |
+$35.15 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:50pm ET | $155.49 | 69 | $10,728.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $155.47 | 69 | $10,727.43 | $10,842.62 |
$-1.38 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.63 | 73 | $10,777.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $146.29 | 73 | $10,679.53 | $10,744.80 |
$-97.82 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $150.04 | 71 | $10,652.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:00pm ET | $150.51 | 71 | $10,685.86 | $10,777.82 |
+$33.02 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:45pm ET | $151.40 | 71 | $10,749.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $150.28 | 71 | $10,669.89 | $10,698.66 |
$-79.16 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $149.45 | 71 | $10,610.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $149.09 | 71 | $10,585.47 | $10,673.18 |
$-25.48 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.70 | 72 | $10,634.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $148.65 | 72 | $10,702.80 | $10,741.94 |
+$68.76 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $153.63 | 69 | $10,600.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $152.40 | 69 | $10,515.60 | $10,657.41 |
$-84.53 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:50pm ET | $149.44 | 71 | $10,610.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $149.76 | 71 | $10,632.96 | $10,680.06 |
+$22.65 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $151.29 | 70 | $10,590.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $152.30 | 70 | $10,661.00 | $10,750.76 |
+$70.70 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $149.09 | 72 | $10,734.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $149.28 | 72 | $10,748.16 | $10,764.80 |
+$14.04 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $153.93 | 69 | $10,621.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:50pm ET | $154.38 | 69 | $10,652.56 | $10,796.20 |
+$31.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $156.12 | 69 | $10,772.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.29 | 69 | $10,715.01 | $10,738.93 |
$-57.27 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $159.50 | 67 | $10,686.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $159.44 | 67 | $10,682.48 | $10,734.91 |
$-4.02 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:35pm ET | $158.28 | 67 | $10,604.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $157.19 | 67 | $10,531.73 | $10,661.88 |
$-73.03 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $160.47 | 66 | $10,591.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.32 | 66 | $10,251.12 | $10,321.98 |
$-339.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 3:05pm ET | $164.98 | 62 | $10,228.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $164.42 | 62 | $10,194.04 | $10,287.14 |
$-34.84 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $169.72 | 60 | $10,183.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $170.33 | 60 | $10,219.80 | $10,323.74 |
+$36.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $172.55 | 59 | $10,180.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET | $168.16 | 59 | $9,921.73 | $10,064.73 |
$-259.01 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:45pm ET | $162.08 | 62 | $10,048.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $162.59 | 62 | $10,080.77 | $10,096.53 |
+$31.80 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $156.99 | 64 | $10,047.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $154.88 | 64 | $9,912.32 | $9,961.17 |
$-135.36 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $152.34 | 65 | $9,902.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $152.59 | 65 | $9,918.35 | $9,977.42 |
+$16.25 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $149.77 | 66 | $9,885.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.62 | 66 | $9,742.92 | $9,835.19 |
$-142.23 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $148.01 | 66 | $9,768.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $147.26 | 66 | $9,719.16 | $9,785.69 |
$-49.50 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $151.96 | 64 | $9,725.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.38 | 64 | $9,240.32 | $9,300.57 |
$-485.12 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $148.49 | 62 | $9,206.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.98 | 62 | $9,112.77 | $9,206.96 |
$-93.61 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $149.24 | 61 | $9,103.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $149.23 | 61 | $9,103.03 | $9,206.05 |
$-0.91 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $150.97 | 60 | $9,058.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:30pm ET | $150.85 | 60 | $9,051.00 | $9,198.85 |
$-7.20 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.01 | 60 | $9,120.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $154.16 | 60 | $9,249.60 | $9,327.85 |
+$129.00 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $152.40 | 61 | $9,296.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $153.26 | 61 | $9,349.16 | $9,380.92 |
+$53.07 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $153.05 | 61 | $9,336.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $153.65 | 61 | $9,372.65 | $9,417.52 |
+$36.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,417.52
Net Profit/Loss:
$-582.48
Total Return:
-5.82%