DOTUSD Professor Mean's Analysis
Era 6: Feb 6, 2026 to 2026-02-14 23:05:00+00 • 36 trades (5 prior eras crashed)
Data Transparency
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Era 6)
Trade Statistics (Era 6)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Era 6)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 2, 2024 | $98.64 | 911 | $9,061.62 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 2 | Oct 31, 2024 | $98.82 | 1,821 | $10,046.65 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 3 | Apr 2, 2025 | $99.37 | 2,741 | $10,897.73 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2025 | $98.33 | 3,718 | $9,644.85 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 5 | Feb 6, 2026 | $96.28 | 4,598 | $8,712.60 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 5 times. Total capital invested: $60,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time (Era 6)
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay (Era 6)
📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🔄 Era 6 Trade History (Current) (since refund on Feb 6, 2026 - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,096.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $1.13 | 8,919 | $10,096.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:50pm ET | $1.24 | 8,919 | $11,059.53 | $11,006.64 |
+$910.36 (+9.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $1.26 | 8,728 | $11,006.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:00am ET | $1.27 | 8,728 | $11,111.38 | $11,056.09 |
+$49.45 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1.36 | 8,112 | $11,056.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1.36 | 8,112 | $11,064.20 | $11,008.90 |
$-47.19 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:05pm ET | $1.35 | 8,131 | $11,008.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:35pm ET | $1.35 | 8,131 | $10,992.63 | $10,937.63 |
$-71.27 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 12:25am ET | $1.37 | 8,001 | $10,937.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 1:55am ET | $1.34 | 8,001 | $10,753.60 | $10,699.38 |
$-238.26 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:00am ET | $1.34 | 7,967 | $10,699.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 3:20am ET | $1.34 | 7,967 | $10,643.61 | $10,590.25 |
$-109.12 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $1.32 | 8,005 | $10,590.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 6:25am ET | $1.33 | 8,005 | $10,638.28 | $10,585.21 |
$-5.04 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.33 | 7,947 | $10,585.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $1.34 | 7,947 | $10,680.57 | $10,627.41 |
+$42.20 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $1.37 | 7,744 | $10,627.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 3:00pm ET | $1.37 | 7,744 | $10,613.23 | $10,560.13 |
$-67.27 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 6:00pm ET | $1.37 | 7,695 | $10,560.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 6:45pm ET | $1.37 | 7,695 | $10,572.44 | $10,519.61 |
$-40.52 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 7:15pm ET | $1.36 | 7,712 | $10,519.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 8:00pm ET | $1.37 | 7,712 | $10,570.28 | $10,517.56 |
$-2.05 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 9:30pm ET | $1.36 | 7,731 | $10,517.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 12:10am ET | $1.35 | 7,731 | $10,464.02 | $10,411.57 |
$-105.99 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 12:30am ET | $1.35 | 7,732 | $10,411.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 2:30am ET | $1.35 | 7,732 | $10,406.54 | $10,354.50 |
$-57.07 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 5:20am ET | $1.35 | 7,677 | $10,354.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 6:05am ET | $1.36 | 7,677 | $10,411.42 | $10,359.51 |
+$5.01 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 8:05am ET | $1.36 | 7,627 | $10,359.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 8:20am ET | $1.37 | 7,627 | $10,416.56 | $10,364.62 |
+$5.11 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.35 | 7,669 | $10,364.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $1.33 | 7,669 | $10,196.67 | $10,145.27 |
$-219.35 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:50am ET | $1.33 | 7,623 | $10,145.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1.34 | 7,623 | $10,235.95 | $10,184.99 |
+$39.72 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $1.35 | 7,558 | $10,184.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 4:35pm ET | $1.33 | 7,558 | $10,057.18 | $10,006.57 |
$-178.42 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 4:40pm ET | $1.33 | 7,515 | $10,006.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 5:15pm ET | $1.34 | 7,515 | $10,073.83 | $10,023.63 |
+$17.06 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
36m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 8:45pm ET | $1.33 | 7,550 | $10,023.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 9:35pm ET | $1.34 | 7,550 | $10,107.55 | $10,057.22 |
+$33.59 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.32 | 7,621 | $10,057.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 6:00am ET | $1.29 | 7,621 | $9,835.07 | $9,785.34 |
$-271.89 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1.32 | 7,409 | $9,785.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 4:30pm ET | $1.31 | 7,409 | $9,710.95 | $9,662.21 |
$-123.13 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 4:35pm ET | $1.31 | 7,366 | $9,662.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 4:50pm ET | $1.33 | 7,366 | $9,777.08 | $9,728.49 |
+$66.28 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 6:45pm ET | $1.32 | 7,375 | $9,728.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 8:10pm ET | $1.32 | 7,375 | $9,725.91 | $9,677.27 |
$-51.22 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:05pm ET | $1.31 | 7,404 | $9,677.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:15pm ET | $1.30 | 7,404 | $9,658.68 | $9,610.35 |
$-66.92 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $1.30 | 7,407 | $9,610.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET | $1.28 | 7,407 | $9,511.09 | $9,463.28 |
$-147.06 (-1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:45am ET | $1.28 | 7,420 | $9,463.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:05am ET | $1.28 | 7,420 | $9,516.71 | $9,516.71 |
+$5.98 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 4:55am ET | $1.28 | 7,441 | $9,516.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 6:30am ET | $1.28 | 7,441 | $9,494.98 | $9,494.98 |
$-69.26 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 7:40am ET | $1.27 | 7,485 | $9,494.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 8:30am ET | $1.27 | 7,485 | $9,539.14 | $9,539.14 |
$-3.42 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1.27 | 7,510 | $9,539.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1.28 | 7,510 | $9,600.92 | $9,600.92 |
+$13.92 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45pm ET | $1.28 | 7,500 | $9,600.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:40pm ET | $1.28 | 7,500 | $9,610.07 | $9,610.07 |
$-38.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:20pm ET | $1.27 | 7,592 | $9,610.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:10am ET | $1.24 | 7,592 | $9,448.78 | $9,448.78 |
$-208.93 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.24 | 7,609 | $9,448.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 4:00am ET | $1.24 | 7,609 | $9,418.54 | $9,418.54 |
$-77.42 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 5:15am ET | $1.23 | 7,669 | $9,418.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 6:00am ET | $1.24 | 7,669 | $9,481.11 | $9,481.11 |
+$15.33 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1.25 | 7,561 | $9,481.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1.26 | 7,561 | $9,551.81 | $9,551.81 |
+$23.11 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 5:50pm ET | $1.26 | 7,580 | $9,551.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 7:05pm ET | $1.26 | 7,580 | $9,584.40 | $9,584.40 |
$-15.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
+ 5 refunds ($50,000)