Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:19:30

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 7.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 7.7

30-Day Momentum

7
-12.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,523.07
Current Value
$5,778.82
Period P&L
$-744.22
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.56

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+2.31%
Worst Trade
-3.39%
Avg Trade Return
-1.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$110,425.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-744.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-744.22
Gross Return
-11.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,523.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 11:20am ET $249.81 26 $6,495.06
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $241.40 26 $6,276.27 $6,368.08 $-218.79
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:10am ET $240.95 26 $6,264.57
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $245.91 26 $6,393.66 $6,497.17 +$129.09
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET $267.40 24 $6,417.60
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 11:20am ET $273.58 24 $6,565.92 $6,645.49 +$148.32
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $262.05 25 $6,551.25
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET $254.15 25 $6,353.66 $6,447.90 $-197.59
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:15am ET $263.65 24 $6,327.60
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET $255.12 24 $6,122.88 $6,243.18 $-204.72
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:15am ET $247.06 25 $6,176.50
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $238.87 25 $5,971.63 $6,038.31 $-204.87
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET $235.99 25 $5,899.75
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $227.99 25 $5,699.63 $5,838.18 $-200.13
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $202.40 28 $5,667.20
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $206.88 28 $5,792.64 $5,963.62 +$125.44
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET $207.75 28 $5,817.00
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET $201.15 28 $5,632.20 $5,778.82 $-184.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,778.82
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,221.18
Total Return: -42.21%
Back to Rebel Contraire