Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 03:36:06

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

63
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
25.7/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 63.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 62.6

30-Day Momentum

3
-9.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-59 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$21,132.09
Current Value
$19,434.09
Period P&L
$-1,697.99
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.54

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
2 / 4
Best Trade
+2.11%
Worst Trade
-6.64%
Avg Trade Return
-1.68%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$251,042.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,697.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,697.99
Gross Return
-8.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $21,132.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:50pm ET $194.99 110 $21,448.90
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $188.91 110 $20,780.65 $20,901.63 $-668.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $182.73 114 $20,831.22
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET $186.59 114 $21,271.26 $21,341.67 +$440.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET $186.70 114 $21,283.80
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET $190.45 114 $21,711.30 $21,769.17 +$427.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:40pm ET $189.82 114 $21,639.48
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $187.52 114 $21,377.28 $21,506.97 $-262.20
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET $191.62 112 $21,461.44
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $178.90 112 $20,036.80 $20,082.33 $-1,424.64
(-6.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $179.50 111 $19,924.50
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $173.66 111 $19,276.26 $19,434.09 $-648.24
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,434.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,434.09
Total Return: +94.34%
Back to Rebel Contraire