Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:36

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality 7.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 7.8

30-Day Momentum

2
-1.4%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,288.63
Current Value
$8,150.11
Period P&L
$-138.49
Max Drawdown
-25.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+2.55%
Worst Trade
-3.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
5.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,850.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-138.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-138.49
Gross Return
-1.67%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,288.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 3:25pm ET $103.74 79 $8,195.46
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $103.19 79 $8,152.00 $8,224.60 $-43.46
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:40am ET $104.85 78 $8,178.30
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $101.66 78 $7,929.48 $7,975.78 $-248.82
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $101.77 78 $7,938.06
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $99.44 78 $7,756.32 $7,794.04 $-181.74
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:10am ET $99.37 78 $7,750.87
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $101.90 78 $7,948.20 $7,991.37 +$197.33
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET $101.56 78 $7,921.29
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $103.59 78 $8,080.03 $8,150.11 +$158.74
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,150.11
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,849.89
Total Return: -18.50%
Back to Rebel Contraire