Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 40.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 40.0

30-Day Momentum

9
-13.9%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$16,133.18
Current Value
$13,882.45
Period P&L
$-2,250.68
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.47

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+2.59%
Worst Trade
-5.73%
Avg Trade Return
-1.45%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$299,543.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,250.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,250.68
Gross Return
-13.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,133.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:30am ET $258.15 62 $16,005.30
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $247.18 62 $15,325.31 $15,453.14 $-679.99
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $256.09 60 $15,365.40
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:40am ET $262.73 60 $15,763.80 $15,851.54 +$398.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:45am ET $284.84 55 $15,666.20
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $291.28 55 $16,020.53 $16,205.87 +$354.33
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
30m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $324.85 49 $15,917.78
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $313.34 49 $15,353.66 $15,641.75 $-564.12
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $310.09 50 $15,504.46
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $298.06 50 $14,903.00 $15,040.29 $-601.46
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $283.36 53 $15,018.19
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $274.73 53 $14,560.69 $14,582.79 $-457.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET $275.11 53 $14,580.83
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $266.50 53 $14,124.50 $14,126.46 $-456.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET $269.16 52 $13,996.32
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:15am ET $274.69 52 $14,283.88 $14,414.02 +$287.56
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET $268.49 53 $14,229.98
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET $274.26 53 $14,535.78 $14,719.82 +$305.80
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:25am ET $265.68 55 $14,612.67
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $250.46 55 $13,775.30 $13,882.45 $-837.37
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,882.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,882.45
Total Return: +38.82%
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