Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:17:46

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

4
-6.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,614.40
Current Value
$9,129.27
Period P&L
$-485.17
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.33

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
2 / 5
Best Trade
+3.40%
Worst Trade
-3.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.88%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$127,859.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-485.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-485.17
Gross Return
-5.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,614.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $446.11 21 $9,368.31
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $441.03 21 $9,261.64 $9,623.16 $-106.67
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $436.17 22 $9,595.74
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:45am ET $422.45 22 $9,293.90 $9,321.32 $-301.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $423.43 22 $9,315.57
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $406.57 22 $8,944.43 $8,950.18 $-371.14
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET $400.95 22 $8,820.79
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $414.59 22 $9,120.98 $9,250.37 +$300.19
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET $422.53 21 $8,873.13
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET $422.37 21 $8,869.77 $9,247.01 $-3.36
(-0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:05am ET $410.57 22 $9,032.58
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET $419.42 22 $9,227.24 $9,441.67 +$194.66
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:10am ET $419.26 22 $9,223.72
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $405.06 22 $8,911.32 $9,129.27 $-312.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,129.27
Net Profit/Loss: $-870.73
Total Return: -8.71%
Back to Rebel Contraire