Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:21:29

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
10.9/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 24.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 24.3

30-Day Momentum

24
+2.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.0 Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,642.31
Current Value
$11,959.73
Period P&L
$317.41
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-3.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$134,777.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$317.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$317.41
Gross Return
+2.73%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,642.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:50am ET $1,059.09 10 $10,590.90
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET $1,080.30 10 $10,802.95 $11,854.37 +$212.05
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $1,084.15 10 $10,841.50
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:40am ET $1,108.92 10 $11,089.20 $12,102.07 +$247.70
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21h held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $1,113.70 10 $11,137.00
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET $1,078.16 10 $10,781.55 $11,746.62 $-355.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $1,065.34 11 $11,718.74
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:15am ET $1,087.85 11 $11,966.35 $11,994.23 +$247.61
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:20pm ET $1,134.43 10 $11,344.30
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:30am ET $1,157.48 10 $11,574.80 $12,224.73 +$230.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $1,159.75 10 $11,597.50
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,133.25 10 $11,332.50 $11,959.73 $-265.00
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,959.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,959.73
Total Return: +19.60%
Back to Rebel Contraire