Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:20:00

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.6/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 34.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 33.5

30-Day Momentum

2
-2.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,433.06
Current Value
$12,982.34
Period P&L
$-450.75
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+0.97%
Worst Trade
-3.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.57%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$127,881.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-450.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$-450.75
Gross Return
-3.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,433.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET $498.76 26 $12,967.73
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET $493.67 26 $12,835.52 $13,225.97 $-132.21
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $494.17 26 $12,848.29
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $492.78 26 $12,812.28 $13,189.96 $-36.01
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $480.79 27 $12,981.33
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET $465.57 27 $12,570.39 $12,779.02 $-410.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:25am ET $485.50 26 $12,623.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $490.22 26 $12,745.72 $12,901.74 +$122.72
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET $488.78 26 $12,708.28
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:25am ET $491.88 26 $12,788.88 $12,982.34 +$80.60
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,982.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,982.34
Total Return: +29.82%
Back to Rebel Contraire