Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:05

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.2

30-Day Momentum

39
+7.0%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.2 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,702.29
Current Value
$7,170.45
Period P&L
$468.10
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+7.29%
Worst Trade
-8.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.63%
Avg Hold Time
23.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$173,469.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$468.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$468.10
Gross Return
+6.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,702.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:40pm ET $14.00 478 $6,692.05
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $14.52 478 $6,938.17 $6,948.47 +$246.12
(+3.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $13.95 498 $6,947.05
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:05am ET $14.25 498 $7,096.50 $7,097.92 +$149.45
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20m held
3 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 11:40am ET $13.91 510 $7,094.10
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 2:15pm ET $14.20 510 $7,242.00 $7,245.82 +$147.90
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
4 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:55pm ET $14.48 500 $7,240.05
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $13.94 500 $6,971.50 $6,977.27 $-268.55
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:05am ET $14.88 468 $6,963.84
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:40pm ET $14.38 468 $6,727.50 $6,740.93 $-236.34
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:05am ET $14.88 468 $6,963.84
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $13.68 468 $6,399.90 $6,176.99 $-563.94
(-8.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $13.08 472 $6,173.67
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET $12.55 472 $5,921.24 $5,924.56 $-252.43
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:35am ET $13.31 444 $5,911.86
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:50pm ET $13.65 444 $6,059.58 $6,072.28 +$147.72
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $13.19 460 $6,067.40
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $13.53 460 $6,223.80 $6,228.68 +$156.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:20am ET $12.78 487 $6,223.86
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $13.11 487 $6,384.57 $6,389.39 +$160.71
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 1:55pm ET $13.93 458 $6,377.65
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.94 458 $6,842.52 $6,854.26 +$464.87
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $14.60 469 $6,847.40
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:40am ET $14.91 469 $6,995.13 $7,001.99 +$147.73
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $14.34 488 $6,997.82
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET $14.69 488 $7,166.28 $7,170.45 +$168.46
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,170.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,829.55
Total Return: -28.30%
Back to Rebel Contraire