Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:01

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 25.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 25.3

30-Day Momentum

4
-9.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,714.63
Current Value
$11,538.70
Period P&L
$-1,175.90
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.51

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
2 / 5
Best Trade
+3.34%
Worst Trade
-3.62%
Avg Trade Return
-1.36%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$168,128.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,175.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,175.90
Gross Return
-9.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,714.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $420.21 30 $12,606.45
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:00am ET $411.40 30 $12,342.00 $12,450.15 $-264.45
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:35am ET $423.42 29 $12,279.18
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $433.16 29 $12,561.64 $12,732.61 +$282.46
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET $461.89 27 $12,470.90
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $446.97 27 $12,068.19 $12,329.90 $-402.71
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $432.18 28 $12,101.04
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $418.74 28 $11,724.77 $11,953.63 $-376.27
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $409.36 29 $11,871.44
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $394.54 29 $11,441.66 $11,523.85 $-429.78
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET $384.04 30 $11,521.05
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $396.85 30 $11,905.50 $11,908.30 +$384.45
(+3.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:15am ET $393.41 30 $11,802.30
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $381.09 30 $11,432.70 $11,538.70 $-369.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,538.70
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,538.70
Total Return: +15.39%
Back to Rebel Contraire