Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:19

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 38.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 38.4

30-Day Momentum

2
-10.4%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$17,010.22
Current Value
$15,394.07
Period P&L
$-1,616.15
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-2.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
0 / 5
Best Trade
-0.39%
Worst Trade
-3.17%
Avg Trade Return
-2.18%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$164,105.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,616.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,616.15
Gross Return
-9.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,010.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:25am ET $90.19 190 $17,136.10
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $88.53 190 $16,819.75 $16,866.77 $-316.35
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:55am ET $87.37 193 $16,862.41
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET $87.03 193 $16,797.47 $16,801.83 $-64.94
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET $83.49 201 $16,781.47
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $81.54 201 $16,389.94 $16,410.30 $-391.53
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $82.18 199 $16,354.81
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET $79.58 199 $15,836.42 $15,891.91 $-518.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:20am ET $80.68 196 $15,812.30
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $78.14 196 $15,314.46 $15,394.07 $-497.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,394.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,394.07
Total Return: +53.94%
Back to Rebel Contraire