Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:37

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 9.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.3

30-Day Momentum

20
+0.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.5 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,706.43
Current Value
$6,757.69
Period P&L
$51.27
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
6 / 3
Best Trade
+2.51%
Worst Trade
-4.72%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$124,048.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$51.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$51.27
Gross Return
+0.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,706.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $5.18 1,293 $6,704.20
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:40am ET $5.32 1,293 $6,872.30 $6,874.51 +$168.09
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:40am ET $5.68 1,210 $6,872.80
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 3:30pm ET $5.81 1,210 $7,030.10 $7,031.81 +$157.30
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $5.38 1,307 $7,031.66
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $5.49 1,307 $7,173.73 $7,173.88 +$142.07
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:55am ET $5.90 1,215 $7,168.38
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $6.02 1,215 $7,314.30 $7,319.80 +$145.92
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:50pm ET $6.05 1,208 $7,314.44
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $5.84 1,208 $7,057.26 $7,062.62 $-257.18
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $5.82 1,212 $7,059.90
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.55 1,212 $6,726.72 $6,729.44 $-333.18
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:10am ET $5.50 1,223 $6,728.95
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $5.34 1,223 $6,524.71 $6,525.20 $-204.24
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:50am ET $5.23 1,247 $6,521.81
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:50am ET $5.29 1,247 $6,596.75 $6,600.14 +$74.94
(+1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $5.02 1,314 $6,596.28
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:10am ET $5.14 1,314 $6,753.83 $6,757.69 +$157.55
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,757.69
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,242.31
Total Return: -32.42%
Back to Rebel Contraire