Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:24:55

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 34.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.6

30-Day Momentum

44
+6.6%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.1 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,946.67
Current Value
$14,864.26
Period P&L
$917.64
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
7 / 3
Best Trade
+3.75%
Worst Trade
-3.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.67%
Avg Hold Time
23.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$285,636.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$917.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$917.64
Gross Return
+6.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,946.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:15am ET $46.95 297 $13,944.15
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 1:45pm ET $47.94 297 $14,238.18 $14,240.65 +$294.03
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held
2 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:45pm ET $45.93 310 $14,237.25
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:40am ET $46.88 310 $14,532.80 $14,536.20 +$295.55
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held
3 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 12:00pm ET $47.09 308 $14,503.72
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET $45.55 308 $14,029.40 $14,061.88 $-474.32
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET $43.24 325 $14,053.00
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $44.86 325 $14,579.50 $14,588.38 +$526.50
(+3.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $42.99 339 $14,575.23
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $41.56 339 $14,088.84 $14,101.99 $-486.39
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:05pm ET $42.58 331 $14,095.63
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $43.45 331 $14,381.95 $14,388.31 +$286.32
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET $42.58 337 $14,351.14
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $41.17 337 $13,874.29 $13,911.45 $-476.86
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET $42.76 325 $13,897.00
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET $43.64 325 $14,183.00 $14,197.45 +$286.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:10pm ET $45.41 312 $14,168.14
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $46.58 312 $14,532.96 $14,562.27 +$364.82
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET $48.61 299 $14,534.39
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:05am ET $49.62 299 $14,836.38 $14,864.26 +$301.99
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,864.26
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,864.26
Total Return: +48.64%
Back to Rebel Contraire