Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:24:42

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

50
+9.4%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$4,520.63
Current Value
$4,946.52
Period P&L
$425.93
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
9 / 3
Best Trade
+2.72%
Worst Trade
-3.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.79%
Avg Hold Time
22.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$116,759.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$425.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$425.93
Gross Return
+9.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,520.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:55am ET $14.18 318 $4,507.65
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:50am ET $14.56 318 $4,630.08 $4,643.02 +$122.43
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:55am ET $14.74 314 $4,629.93
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:50am ET $15.09 314 $4,736.69 $4,749.78 +$106.76
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $16.23 292 $4,737.70
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:45pm ET $16.58 292 $4,842.82 $4,854.90 +$105.12
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.09 284 $4,854.50
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET $17.45 284 $4,957.22 $4,957.62 +$102.72
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:40am ET $18.06 274 $4,947.07
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $18.42 274 $5,048.45 $5,059.00 +$101.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:10pm ET $16.32 310 $5,057.65
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $16.68 310 $5,170.80 $5,172.15 +$113.15
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET $16.18 319 $5,161.42
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $15.59 319 $4,973.21 $4,983.94 $-188.21
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET $15.24 326 $4,969.87
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $14.75 326 $4,808.50 $4,822.57 $-161.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $15.74 306 $4,816.44
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:40pm ET $16.08 306 $4,921.55 $4,927.68 +$105.11
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $16.78 293 $4,916.54
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 293 $4,725.30 $4,736.44 $-191.24
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $16.19 292 $4,727.48
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:40am ET $16.56 292 $4,834.06 $4,843.02 +$106.58
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 1:00pm ET $16.14 300 $4,840.50
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.48 300 $4,944.00 $4,946.52 +$103.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,946.52
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,053.48
Total Return: -50.53%
Back to Rebel Contraire