Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-22 to present • 13 trades in period

-4.39%
Last Month Return
$8,560.57
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$8,953.83
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:21:41

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 11.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.6

30-Day Momentum

12
-4.4%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,953.83
Current Value
$8,560.57
Period P&L
$-393.26
Max Drawdown
-63.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+5.93%
Worst Trade
-4.73%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
7.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$247,370.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-393.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-393.26
Gross Return
-4.39%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.39%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,953.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:40am ET $35.00 255 $8,925.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 1:35pm ET $35.82 255 $9,134.10 $9,162.19 +$208.36
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $37.45 244 $9,137.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $38.20 244 $9,320.82 $9,345.21 +$183.02
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
3 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $41.94 222 $9,310.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $44.36 222 $9,847.92 $9,882.45 +$537.24
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $47.81 206 $9,849.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $50.65 206 $10,433.90 $10,466.46 +$584.01
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $48.94 213 $10,425.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $46.63 213 $9,932.19 $9,973.37 $-493.09
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $45.72 218 $9,966.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:20am ET $46.77 218 $10,195.86 $10,202.27 +$228.90
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:05am ET $43.08 236 $10,166.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $41.76 236 $9,855.36 $9,890.77 $-311.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:45pm ET $44.19 223 $9,853.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET $42.82 223 $9,548.86 $9,586.37 $-304.40
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET $35.45 270 $9,571.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET $34.30 270 $9,261.00 $9,275.87 $-310.50
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 11:00am ET $28.91 320 $9,249.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:20am ET $29.49 320 $9,435.20 $9,461.47 +$185.60
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 11:20am ET $31.14 303 $9,435.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET $30.18 303 $9,146.05 $9,172.11 $-289.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $31.13 294 $9,152.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET $30.00 294 $8,820.00 $8,839.89 $-332.22
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:40am ET $29.26 302 $8,836.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $28.33 302 $8,557.17 $8,560.57 $-279.32
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,560.57
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,439.43
Total Return: -14.39%
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