Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:20:00

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

63
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
25.7/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 63.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 62.6

30-Day Momentum

3
-9.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-59 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,672.79
Current Value
$19,434.09
Period P&L
$-238.69
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
12 / 8
Best Trade
+3.67%
Worst Trade
-6.64%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$837,382.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-238.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-238.69
Gross Return
-1.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $19,672.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 11:10am ET $201.15 98 $19,712.69
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $206.91 98 $20,277.18 $20,398.47 +$564.49
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:10am ET $205.61 99 $20,355.39
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET $210.44 99 $20,833.56 $20,876.64 +$478.17
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET $213.82 97 $20,740.54
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:05pm ET $207.20 97 $20,098.40 $20,234.50 $-642.14
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:10pm ET $196.34 103 $20,223.02
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $203.54 103 $20,964.74 $20,976.22 +$741.72
(+3.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $198.16 105 $20,806.80
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $202.14 105 $21,224.70 $21,394.12 +$417.90
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:10am ET $190.47 112 $21,332.64
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $194.31 112 $21,762.72 $21,824.20 +$430.08
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $189.88 114 $21,646.32
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $186.31 114 $21,239.34 $21,417.22 $-406.98
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET $185.91 115 $21,379.65
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $179.80 115 $20,677.00 $20,714.57 $-702.65
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:15am ET $184.82 112 $20,700.40
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET $188.92 112 $21,159.04 $21,173.21 +$458.64
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET $186.56 113 $21,081.28
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $188.25 113 $21,272.25 $21,364.18 +$190.97
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $191.82 111 $21,292.02
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 1:30pm ET $192.62 111 $21,380.82 $21,452.98 +$88.80
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 1:30pm ET $192.39 111 $21,355.29
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $185.77 111 $20,620.47 $20,718.16 $-734.82
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $181.19 114 $20,655.66
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $184.85 114 $21,072.33 $21,134.83 +$416.67
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
14 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 2:40pm ET $186.02 113 $21,020.26
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 10:00am ET $189.87 113 $21,455.31 $21,569.88 +$435.05
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
15 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:50pm ET $194.99 110 $21,448.90
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $188.91 110 $20,780.65 $20,901.63 $-668.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
16 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $182.73 114 $20,831.22
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:10am ET $186.59 114 $21,271.26 $21,341.67 +$440.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET $186.70 114 $21,283.80
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET $190.45 114 $21,711.30 $21,769.17 +$427.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:40pm ET $189.82 114 $21,639.48
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $187.52 114 $21,377.28 $21,506.97 $-262.20
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET $191.62 112 $21,461.44
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $178.90 112 $20,036.80 $20,082.33 $-1,424.64
(-6.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $179.50 111 $19,924.50
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $173.66 111 $19,276.26 $19,434.09 $-648.24
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,434.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,434.09
Total Return: +94.34%
Back to Rebel Contraire