Compendium › Rebel Contraire › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 23 trades in period

-7.53%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,536.12
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$12,475.14
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:21:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 23.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 23.3

30-Day Momentum

7
-9.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,780
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,475.14
Current Value
$11,536.12
Period P&L
$-939.03
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
10 / 13
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-3.54%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$532,378.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-939.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-939.03
Gross Return
-7.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,475.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET $1,049.50 11 $11,544.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,105.51 11 $12,160.61 $12,475.15 +$616.11
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET $1,033.05 12 $12,396.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $1,031.99 12 $12,383.88 $12,462.43 $-12.72
(-0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
48m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET $1,058.26 11 $11,640.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET $1,020.78 11 $11,228.58 $12,050.15 $-412.28
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 10:50am ET $1,015.53 11 $11,170.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,047.06 11 $11,517.66 $12,396.98 +$346.83
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET $1,028.09 12 $12,337.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 10:35am ET $1,052.70 12 $12,632.40 $12,692.27 +$295.29
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
55m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 10:40am ET $1,036.03 12 $12,432.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 10:40am ET $1,033.78 12 $12,405.33 $12,665.30 $-26.97
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET $996.12 12 $11,953.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET $965.66 12 $11,587.92 $12,299.78 $-365.52
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $975.98 12 $11,711.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET $998.88 12 $11,986.56 $12,574.58 +$274.80
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 11:15am ET $1,002.77 12 $12,033.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $992.85 12 $11,914.26 $12,455.60 $-118.98
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 9:40am ET $972.49 12 $11,669.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $941.04 12 $11,292.48 $12,078.14 $-377.46
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:55pm ET $920.75 13 $11,969.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $915.18 13 $11,897.34 $12,005.67 $-72.47
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $901.53 13 $11,719.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 12:35pm ET $919.63 13 $11,955.19 $12,240.91 +$235.24
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:40pm ET $901.68 13 $11,721.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:05am ET $923.65 13 $12,007.45 $12,526.52 +$285.61
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:10am ET $932.61 13 $12,123.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $951.48 13 $12,369.24 $12,771.76 +$245.24
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET $934.46 13 $12,147.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $902.29 13 $11,729.77 $12,353.55 $-418.21
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 12:20pm ET $957.84 12 $11,494.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $930.47 12 $11,165.64 $12,025.11 $-328.44
(-2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $935.60 12 $11,227.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET $904.37 12 $10,852.44 $11,650.35 $-374.76
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 11:55am ET $899.79 12 $10,797.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $919.93 12 $11,039.16 $11,891.97 +$241.62
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET $913.46 13 $11,874.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $884.98 13 $11,504.74 $11,521.73 $-370.24
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:50am ET $917.75 12 $11,013.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $889.48 12 $10,673.76 $11,182.49 $-339.24
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $878.43 12 $10,541.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $851.74 12 $10,220.88 $10,862.15 $-320.34
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:15pm ET $932.26 11 $10,254.81 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $973.99 11 $10,713.94 $11,321.29 +$459.14
(+4.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
23 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:50am ET $961.27 11 $10,573.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:15am ET $980.80 11 $10,788.80 $11,536.12 +$214.83
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,536.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,536.12
Total Return: +15.36%
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