Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:24:36

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-5.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,218.44
Current Value
$8,646.66
Period P&L
$-571.74
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
19
Winners / Losers
9 / 10
Best Trade
+2.64%
Worst Trade
-3.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$346,154.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-571.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-571.74
Gross Return
-6.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 19 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,218.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:05am ET $116.13 80 $9,290.40
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $115.07 80 $9,205.20 $9,218.40 $-85.20
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $114.86 80 $9,188.80
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $117.46 80 $9,396.80 $9,426.40 +$208.00
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $118.98 79 $9,399.42
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $121.48 79 $9,596.92 $9,623.90 +$197.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:25am ET $120.32 79 $9,505.67
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $120.49 79 $9,518.71 $9,636.94 +$13.04
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:45am ET $117.14 82 $9,605.48
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:50am ET $119.58 82 $9,805.97 $9,837.43 +$200.49
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $123.00 79 $9,717.00
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 11:25am ET $119.25 79 $9,420.75 $9,541.18 $-296.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $120.18 79 $9,494.22
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:35am ET $116.36 79 $9,192.83 $9,239.79 $-301.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET $116.99 78 $9,125.22
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:35am ET $113.30 78 $8,837.40 $8,951.97 $-287.82
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET $112.65 79 $8,899.35
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $114.94 79 $9,080.26 $9,132.88 +$180.91
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:40pm ET $111.83 81 $9,058.23
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 81 $8,765.82 $8,840.47 $-292.41
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET $110.61 79 $8,737.80
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $113.53 79 $8,968.87 $9,071.54 +$231.07
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
12 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:30am ET $113.44 79 $8,961.76
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $112.88 79 $8,917.13 $9,026.90 $-44.64
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:10am ET $112.11 80 $8,968.80
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $111.42 80 $8,913.59 $8,971.69 $-55.21
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:55am ET $112.72 79 $8,904.88
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $115.40 79 $9,116.60 $9,183.41 +$211.72
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
15 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 10:00am ET $120.99 75 $9,074.25
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $116.52 75 $8,739.00 $8,848.16 $-335.25
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:00pm ET $115.68 76 $8,791.68
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $118.45 76 $9,002.20 $9,058.68 +$210.52
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET $122.76 73 $8,961.48
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:30pm ET $119.05 73 $8,690.65 $8,787.85 $-270.83
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $119.55 73 $8,727.15
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:40pm ET $122.46 73 $8,939.22 $8,999.91 +$212.06
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $119.92 75 $8,994.00
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $115.21 75 $8,640.75 $8,646.66 $-353.25
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,646.66
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,353.34
Total Return: -13.53%
Back to Rebel Contraire