GLD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
+18.35%
Year to Date Return
$20,238.64
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$17,101.29
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
48.3 neutral
20d Trend
+3.5%
5d Trend
-2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.0%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
51%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
69
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
31.9/35
Total Return
16.7/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
6.1/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
70.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 69.5
30-Day Momentum
45
+7.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
5.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 61.1
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,510
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$17,101.29
Current Value
$20,238.64
Period P&L
$3,137.28
Max Drawdown
-11.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
19 /
11
Best Trade
+4.88%
Worst Trade
-3.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.58%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,136,524.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,137.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,137.28
Gross Return
+18.35%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.35%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 GLD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,101.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $399.16 | 43 | $17,163.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $406.94 | 43 | $17,498.42 | $17,550.27 |
+$334.54 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $412.45 | 42 | $17,322.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.77 | 42 | $17,756.16 | $17,983.53 |
+$433.26 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $422.74 | 42 | $17,755.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $434.86 | 42 | $18,264.12 | $18,492.57 |
+$509.04 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $442.89 | 41 | $18,158.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $451.80 | 41 | $18,523.60 | $18,857.88 |
+$365.31 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $455.82 | 41 | $18,688.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $467.47 | 41 | $19,166.27 | $19,335.37 |
+$477.49 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $464.47 | 41 | $19,043.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:45pm ET | $474.40 | 41 | $19,450.40 | $19,742.50 |
+$407.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $506.03 | 39 | $19,734.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $489.83 | 39 | $19,103.37 | $19,110.90 |
$-631.61 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $458.87 | 41 | $18,813.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $442.42 | 41 | $18,139.22 | $18,436.45 |
$-674.45 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $429.68 | 42 | $18,046.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.65 | 42 | $18,927.30 | $19,316.98 |
+$880.53 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $456.31 | 42 | $19,165.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $442.31 | 42 | $18,577.02 | $18,728.98 |
$-588.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $455.65 | 41 | $18,681.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $465.15 | 41 | $19,071.15 | $19,118.48 |
+$389.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $460.49 | 41 | $18,880.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $462.96 | 41 | $18,981.36 | $19,219.75 |
+$101.27 (+0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $446.47 | 43 | $19,198.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $455.83 | 43 | $19,600.90 | $19,622.44 |
+$402.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $460.83 | 42 | $19,354.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $474.64 | 42 | $19,934.88 | $20,202.52 |
+$580.08 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $471.31 | 42 | $19,795.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $480.98 | 42 | $20,201.02 | $20,608.52 |
+$406.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $488.90 | 42 | $20,533.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $472.03 | 42 | $19,825.26 | $19,899.98 |
$-708.54 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $473.08 | 42 | $19,869.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $467.66 | 42 | $19,641.72 | $19,672.34 |
$-227.64 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $480.42 | 40 | $19,216.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $464.94 | 40 | $18,597.60 | $19,053.15 |
$-619.19 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $458.84 | 41 | $18,812.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $445.06 | 41 | $18,247.46 | $18,488.13 |
$-565.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $425.61 | 43 | $18,301.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $412.11 | 43 | $17,720.73 | $17,907.63 |
$-580.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.75 | 44 | $17,633.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $420.21 | 44 | $18,489.24 | $18,763.87 |
+$856.24 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $408.34 | 45 | $18,375.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $417.70 | 45 | $18,796.61 | $19,185.18 |
+$421.31 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $416.63 | 46 | $19,164.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $425.80 | 46 | $19,586.80 | $19,607.23 |
+$422.05 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $438.92 | 44 | $19,312.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.53 | 44 | $18,591.32 | $18,886.01 |
$-721.22 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $428.80 | 44 | $18,867.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $440.24 | 44 | $19,370.56 | $19,389.37 |
+$503.36 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $437.40 | 44 | $19,245.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $440.24 | 44 | $19,370.78 | $19,514.55 |
+$125.18 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $442.56 | 44 | $19,472.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:35am ET | $442.52 | 44 | $19,470.88 | $19,512.79 |
$-1.76 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $435.67 | 44 | $19,169.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $431.63 | 44 | $18,991.72 | $19,334.81 |
$-177.98 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $418.55 | 46 | $19,253.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $427.41 | 46 | $19,660.86 | $19,742.32 |
+$407.51 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $419.59 | 47 | $19,720.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $430.15 | 47 | $20,217.05 | $20,238.64 |
+$496.32 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,238.64
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,238.64
Total Return:
+102.39%