IBM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
+22.84%
Year to Date Return
$16,221.58
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$13,205.34
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
50
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
19.5/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
51.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 50.4
30-Day Momentum
46
+6.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 56.2
Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,205.34
Current Value
$16,221.58
Period P&L
$3,016.29
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
20 /
10
Best Trade
+7.65%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
+0.72%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$901,833.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,016.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,016.29
Gross Return
+22.84%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.84%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,205.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $291.52 | 45 | $13,118.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $298.10 | 45 | $13,414.63 | $13,501.52 |
+$296.23 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $299.12 | 45 | $13,460.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.37 | 45 | $13,786.43 | $13,827.55 |
+$326.03 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $302.04 | 45 | $13,591.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:25pm ET | $308.09 | 45 | $13,863.83 | $14,099.80 |
+$272.25 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:35pm ET | $307.08 | 45 | $13,818.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $297.61 | 45 | $13,392.45 | $13,673.88 |
$-425.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $295.75 | 46 | $13,604.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $295.21 | 46 | $13,579.43 | $13,648.81 |
$-25.07 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $294.80 | 46 | $13,560.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.36 | 46 | $14,598.56 | $14,686.57 |
+$1,037.76 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $300.10 | 48 | $14,404.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $306.37 | 48 | $14,705.76 | $14,987.77 |
+$301.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $314.94 | 47 | $14,802.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $302.85 | 47 | $14,233.95 | $14,419.54 |
$-568.23 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $280.90 | 51 | $14,325.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $286.64 | 51 | $14,618.89 | $14,712.53 |
+$292.99 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $289.50 | 50 | $14,475.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $295.30 | 50 | $14,764.75 | $15,002.28 |
+$289.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $293.30 | 51 | $14,958.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $294.26 | 51 | $15,007.01 | $15,051.24 |
+$48.96 (+0.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $257.34 | 58 | $14,925.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $253.99 | 58 | $14,731.42 | $14,856.94 |
$-194.30 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $231.67 | 64 | $14,826.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $236.41 | 64 | $15,130.24 | $15,160.33 |
+$303.39 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:40am ET | $235.86 | 64 | $15,095.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.85 | 64 | $15,478.40 | $15,543.69 |
+$383.36 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $237.49 | 65 | $15,437.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $242.29 | 65 | $15,749.17 | $15,855.69 |
+$312.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:25pm ET | $249.76 | 63 | $15,735.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $254.80 | 63 | $16,052.40 | $16,173.01 |
+$317.32 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $255.11 | 63 | $16,071.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $247.40 | 63 | $15,586.20 | $15,687.28 |
$-485.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $248.90 | 63 | $15,680.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $246.97 | 63 | $15,559.11 | $15,565.85 |
$-121.43 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $253.40 | 61 | $15,457.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $245.48 | 61 | $14,974.28 | $15,082.42 |
$-483.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.41 | 61 | $14,970.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $237.80 | 61 | $14,505.80 | $14,618.21 |
$-464.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $237.63 | 61 | $14,495.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.43 | 61 | $14,788.53 | $14,911.31 |
+$293.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.32 | 61 | $14,781.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $247.32 | 61 | $15,086.82 | $15,216.61 |
+$305.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $242.69 | 62 | $15,046.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.95 | 62 | $15,434.90 | $15,604.90 |
+$388.29 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $236.43 | 66 | $15,604.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $241.20 | 66 | $15,918.87 | $15,919.39 |
+$314.49 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $243.82 | 65 | $15,848.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.01 | 65 | $16,185.65 | $16,256.74 |
+$337.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $252.23 | 64 | $16,142.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $258.02 | 64 | $16,513.28 | $16,627.36 |
+$370.62 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $255.86 | 64 | $16,375.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $247.95 | 64 | $15,868.80 | $16,121.12 |
$-506.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $230.88 | 69 | $15,930.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $232.34 | 69 | $16,031.12 | $16,221.86 |
+$100.74 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $227.88 | 71 | $16,179.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.00 | 71 | $16,685.00 | $16,727.74 |
+$505.88 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $231.74 | 72 | $16,685.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $224.71 | 72 | $16,179.12 | $16,221.58 |
$-506.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,221.58
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,221.58
Total Return:
+62.22%