MA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 34 trades in period
-10.93%
Year to Date Return
$12,982.34
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$14,575.75
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.6/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
34.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 33.5
30-Day Momentum
2
-2.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,679
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
118 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,575.75
Current Value
$12,982.34
Period P&L
$-1,593.44
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
16 /
18
Best Trade
+2.78%
Worst Trade
-4.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.34%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$924,641.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,593.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,593.44
Gross Return
-10.93%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 118 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,575.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $575.56 | 25 | $14,389.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $565.82 | 25 | $14,145.44 | $14,448.72 |
$-243.56 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $577.35 | 25 | $14,433.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:45am ET | $589.26 | 25 | $14,731.45 | $14,746.41 |
+$297.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $578.35 | 25 | $14,458.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $556.93 | 25 | $13,923.25 | $14,210.91 |
$-535.51 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $546.59 | 25 | $13,664.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $532.15 | 25 | $13,303.75 | $13,849.91 |
$-361.00 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $533.44 | 25 | $13,336.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $525.33 | 25 | $13,133.25 | $13,647.16 |
$-202.75 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $524.79 | 26 | $13,644.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $535.33 | 26 | $13,918.58 | $13,921.20 |
+$274.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $536.54 | 25 | $13,413.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $548.97 | 25 | $13,724.25 | $14,231.94 |
+$310.75 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $554.15 | 25 | $13,853.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $544.60 | 25 | $13,615.00 | $13,993.19 |
$-238.75 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $545.28 | 25 | $13,632.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $541.71 | 25 | $13,542.75 | $13,903.82 |
$-89.37 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $521.44 | 26 | $13,557.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $520.20 | 26 | $13,525.20 | $13,871.58 |
$-32.24 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $492.04 | 28 | $13,777.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $504.14 | 28 | $14,115.92 | $14,210.38 |
+$338.80 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $514.47 | 27 | $13,890.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $524.87 | 27 | $14,171.49 | $14,491.31 |
+$280.93 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $524.23 | 27 | $14,154.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $516.90 | 27 | $13,956.30 | $14,293.40 |
$-197.91 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $514.46 | 27 | $13,890.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $498.52 | 27 | $13,460.04 | $13,863.02 |
$-430.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $497.02 | 27 | $13,419.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:40pm ET | $507.18 | 27 | $13,693.99 | $14,137.48 |
+$274.46 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $507.74 | 27 | $13,708.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $491.98 | 27 | $13,283.46 | $13,711.96 |
$-425.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $489.85 | 27 | $13,225.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $503.47 | 27 | $13,593.69 | $14,079.70 |
+$367.74 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.10 | 28 | $13,918.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $481.73 | 28 | $13,488.44 | $13,649.48 |
$-430.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET | $493.28 | 27 | $13,318.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.80 | 27 | $13,332.60 | $13,663.52 |
+$14.04 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $499.06 | 27 | $13,474.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $509.49 | 27 | $13,756.36 | $13,945.26 |
+$281.74 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $499.78 | 27 | $13,494.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $512.38 | 27 | $13,834.26 | $14,285.46 |
+$340.20 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $515.80 | 27 | $13,926.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $526.33 | 27 | $14,210.91 | $14,569.64 |
+$284.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $516.12 | 28 | $14,451.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $500.55 | 28 | $14,015.40 | $14,133.68 |
$-435.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $504.89 | 27 | $13,632.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $515.91 | 27 | $13,929.57 | $14,431.22 |
+$297.54 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:05pm ET | $529.40 | 27 | $14,293.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $504.07 | 27 | $13,609.89 | $13,747.31 |
$-683.91 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $502.21 | 27 | $13,559.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.60 | 27 | $13,408.20 | $13,595.84 |
$-151.47 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $499.80 | 27 | $13,494.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $501.68 | 27 | $13,545.49 | $13,646.74 |
+$50.90 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $494.46 | 27 | $13,350.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $499.00 | 27 | $13,473.00 | $13,769.32 |
+$122.58 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $506.75 | 27 | $13,682.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $491.52 | 27 | $13,271.04 | $13,358.18 |
$-411.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $498.76 | 26 | $12,967.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $493.67 | 26 | $12,835.52 | $13,225.97 |
$-132.21 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $494.17 | 26 | $12,848.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $492.78 | 26 | $12,812.28 | $13,189.96 |
$-36.01 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $480.79 | 27 | $12,981.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $465.57 | 27 | $12,570.39 | $12,779.02 |
$-410.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $485.50 | 26 | $12,623.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $490.22 | 26 | $12,745.72 | $12,901.74 |
+$122.72 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $488.78 | 26 | $12,708.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $491.88 | 26 | $12,788.88 | $12,982.34 |
+$80.60 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,982.34
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,982.34
Total Return:
+29.82%