MS Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
-3.49%
Year to Date Return
$16,399.67
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$16,992.69
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
42
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.5/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
42.8/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 42.1
30-Day Momentum
71
+17.2%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
8.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 91.7
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,290
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$16,992.69
Current Value
$16,399.67
Period P&L
$-593.01
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
16 /
14
Best Trade
+6.58%
Worst Trade
-3.71%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$907,146.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-593.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-593.01
Gross Return
-3.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,992.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.93 | 95 | $16,998.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.28 | 95 | $17,506.61 | $17,628.24 |
+$508.50 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $188.46 | 93 | $17,526.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.52 | 93 | $17,160.36 | $17,261.98 |
$-366.26 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $184.87 | 93 | $17,192.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $179.19 | 93 | $16,664.67 | $16,733.97 |
$-528.01 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $191.03 | 87 | $16,619.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.51 | 87 | $16,052.38 | $16,167.18 |
$-566.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:55am ET | $183.79 | 87 | $15,989.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $178.26 | 87 | $15,508.75 | $15,686.63 |
$-480.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $181.68 | 86 | $15,624.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.57 | 86 | $15,701.02 | $15,763.17 |
+$76.54 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $185.64 | 84 | $15,593.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:50pm ET | $179.59 | 84 | $15,085.14 | $15,254.55 |
$-508.62 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $179.04 | 85 | $15,218.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $173.66 | 85 | $14,761.10 | $14,797.25 |
$-457.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $179.90 | 82 | $14,751.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $183.77 | 82 | $15,069.55 | $15,115.00 |
+$317.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $171.38 | 88 | $15,081.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $175.66 | 88 | $15,458.52 | $15,491.64 |
+$376.64 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $174.29 | 88 | $15,337.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $169.01 | 88 | $14,872.44 | $15,026.33 |
$-465.31 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:50am ET | $167.81 | 89 | $14,935.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:25am ET | $171.43 | 89 | $15,257.71 | $15,348.96 |
+$322.63 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $176.22 | 87 | $15,331.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $169.77 | 87 | $14,770.42 | $14,788.24 |
$-560.72 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $167.64 | 88 | $14,752.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.52 | 88 | $14,301.76 | $14,337.68 |
$-450.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $166.99 | 85 | $14,194.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $161.98 | 85 | $13,768.30 | $13,911.83 |
$-425.85 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $159.35 | 87 | $13,863.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $154.55 | 87 | $13,445.85 | $13,494.23 |
$-417.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $160.23 | 84 | $13,459.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $163.44 | 84 | $13,728.96 | $13,763.87 |
+$269.64 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $154.04 | 89 | $13,709.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $157.26 | 89 | $13,996.58 | $14,050.90 |
+$287.03 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $158.90 | 88 | $13,983.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $162.08 | 88 | $14,263.04 | $14,330.61 |
+$279.71 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $164.30 | 87 | $14,294.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $168.17 | 87 | $14,630.44 | $14,666.52 |
+$335.91 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $165.71 | 88 | $14,582.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.57 | 88 | $14,041.72 | $14,126.19 |
$-540.33 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $159.33 | 88 | $14,021.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $163.00 | 88 | $14,344.00 | $14,449.15 |
+$322.96 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:50pm ET | $166.92 | 86 | $14,355.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $161.57 | 86 | $13,895.02 | $13,989.05 |
$-460.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $166.04 | 84 | $13,946.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.96 | 84 | $14,864.64 | $14,906.75 |
+$917.70 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.39 | 84 | $14,732.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $178.98 | 84 | $15,034.32 | $15,208.31 |
+$301.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $184.32 | 82 | $15,114.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.49 | 82 | $15,456.18 | $15,550.25 |
+$341.94 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $188.44 | 82 | $15,452.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.23 | 82 | $15,762.86 | $15,861.03 |
+$310.78 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $191.49 | 82 | $15,702.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $189.18 | 82 | $15,512.76 | $15,671.61 |
$-189.42 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $188.78 | 83 | $15,668.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $193.20 | 83 | $16,035.60 | $16,038.47 |
+$366.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $189.30 | 84 | $15,901.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.60 | 84 | $16,262.40 | $16,399.67 |
+$361.20 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,399.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,399.67
Total Return:
+64.00%