MU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 50 trades in period
-9.18%
Year to Date Return
$19,156.07
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$21,091.29
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.4/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
40.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 40.1
30-Day Momentum
52
+8.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 55.8
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,575
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$21,091.29
Current Value
$19,156.07
Period P&L
$-1,935.16
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
28 /
22
Best Trade
+5.84%
Worst Trade
-9.24%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
23h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,003,489.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,935.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,935.16
Gross Return
-9.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $21,091.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $306.78 | 68 | $20,861.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $313.92 | 68 | $21,346.56 | $21,576.73 |
+$485.51 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $330.00 | 65 | $21,450.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $336.89 | 65 | $21,897.53 | $22,024.25 |
+$447.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:35pm ET | $338.23 | 65 | $21,984.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $327.73 | 65 | $21,302.13 | $21,341.43 |
$-682.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $336.45 | 63 | $21,196.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $343.59 | 63 | $21,646.16 | $21,791.24 |
+$449.81 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:25pm ET | $344.13 | 63 | $21,680.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $332.66 | 63 | $20,957.58 | $21,068.63 |
$-722.61 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $343.39 | 61 | $20,946.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 61 | $21,947.83 | $22,069.67 |
+$1,001.04 (+4.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $374.80 | 58 | $21,738.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $363.21 | 58 | $21,066.18 | $21,397.45 |
$-672.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:15pm ET | $384.74 | 55 | $21,160.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $392.49 | 55 | $21,586.95 | $21,823.70 |
+$426.25 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $395.08 | 55 | $21,729.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $403.73 | 55 | $22,204.88 | $22,299.18 |
+$475.48 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $391.22 | 56 | $21,908.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $402.17 | 56 | $22,521.51 | $22,912.65 |
+$613.47 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:30pm ET | $431.50 | 53 | $22,869.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $443.39 | 53 | $23,499.41 | $23,542.56 |
+$629.91 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $440.59 | 53 | $23,351.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $427.10 | 53 | $22,636.06 | $22,827.35 |
$-715.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:15pm ET | $440.59 | 51 | $22,470.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $426.66 | 51 | $21,759.66 | $22,116.92 |
$-710.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $404.19 | 54 | $21,826.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $389.18 | 54 | $21,015.72 | $21,306.38 |
$-810.54 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $370.12 | 57 | $21,096.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $379.15 | 57 | $21,611.55 | $21,821.09 |
+$514.71 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:45am ET | $390.20 | 55 | $21,461.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.10 | 55 | $20,465.50 | $20,825.31 |
$-995.77 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.60 | 55 | $20,493.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $381.20 | 55 | $20,966.27 | $21,298.59 |
+$473.27 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $386.88 | 55 | $21,278.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $397.15 | 55 | $21,843.52 | $21,863.71 |
+$565.12 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $403.30 | 54 | $21,778.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $413.31 | 54 | $22,318.73 | $22,403.98 |
+$540.27 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:55am ET | $426.49 | 52 | $22,177.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $413.68 | 52 | $21,511.62 | $21,738.12 |
$-665.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $423.07 | 51 | $21,576.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $431.94 | 51 | $22,028.94 | $22,190.49 |
+$452.37 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $427.40 | 51 | $21,797.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $409.71 | 51 | $20,895.21 | $21,288.04 |
$-902.45 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $413.89 | 51 | $21,108.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $400.74 | 51 | $20,437.99 | $20,617.64 |
$-670.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $385.19 | 53 | $20,415.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $392.99 | 53 | $20,828.47 | $21,031.04 |
+$413.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $396.20 | 53 | $20,998.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $383.34 | 53 | $20,317.02 | $20,349.20 |
$-681.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $383.57 | 53 | $20,329.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $371.56 | 53 | $19,692.93 | $19,712.92 |
$-636.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $412.58 | 47 | $19,391.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $421.58 | 47 | $19,814.26 | $20,135.92 |
+$423.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $398.11 | 50 | $19,905.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $406.17 | 50 | $20,308.50 | $20,538.92 |
+$403.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $421.91 | 48 | $20,251.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 48 | $21,433.92 | $21,721.16 |
+$1,182.24 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:55am ET | $454.68 | 47 | $21,369.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $464.51 | 47 | $21,831.92 | $22,183.12 |
+$461.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $449.90 | 49 | $22,045.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:55am ET | $435.58 | 49 | $21,343.42 | $21,481.44 |
$-701.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $429.40 | 50 | $21,470.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $415.13 | 50 | $20,756.50 | $20,767.95 |
$-713.49 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $393.65 | 52 | $20,469.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.00 | 52 | $19,604.00 | $19,902.15 |
$-865.80 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $369.00 | 53 | $19,557.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $357.85 | 53 | $18,966.05 | $19,311.20 |
$-590.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $360.75 | 53 | $19,119.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $345.18 | 53 | $18,294.80 | $18,486.25 |
$-824.95 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $324.42 | 56 | $18,167.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $331.30 | 56 | $18,553.08 | $18,871.81 |
+$385.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $375.60 | 50 | $18,780.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 50 | $17,045.30 | $17,137.11 |
$-1,734.70 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $376.62 | 45 | $16,947.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $365.20 | 45 | $16,434.22 | $16,623.43 |
$-513.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $405.73 | 40 | $16,229.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $414.44 | 40 | $16,577.60 | $16,971.83 |
+$348.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $419.64 | 40 | $16,785.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.00 | 40 | $17,440.00 | $17,626.15 |
+$654.32 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $459.50 | 38 | $17,461.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $445.13 | 38 | $16,915.02 | $17,080.17 |
$-545.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $456.93 | 37 | $16,906.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $466.44 | 37 | $17,258.35 | $17,432.08 |
+$351.91 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $452.52 | 38 | $17,195.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $438.11 | 38 | $16,648.37 | $16,884.50 |
$-547.58 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $442.54 | 38 | $16,816.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:40pm ET | $451.53 | 38 | $17,158.14 | $17,226.12 |
+$341.62 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $485.14 | 35 | $16,979.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.80 | 35 | $17,353.00 | $17,599.22 |
+$373.10 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $520.66 | 33 | $17,181.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 33 | $16,574.91 | $16,992.35 |
$-606.87 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $518.76 | 32 | $16,600.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $533.47 | 32 | $17,071.04 | $17,463.07 |
+$470.72 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:35am ET | $536.02 | 32 | $17,152.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $558.87 | 32 | $17,883.84 | $18,194.27 |
+$731.20 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $643.41 | 28 | $18,015.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $659.20 | 28 | $18,457.46 | $18,636.11 |
+$441.84 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $650.98 | 28 | $18,227.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $669.55 | 28 | $18,747.40 | $19,156.07 |
+$519.96 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,156.07
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,156.07
Total Return:
+91.56%