NIO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-14.12%
Year to Date Return
$6,783.37
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$7,899.08
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
9.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.9
30-Day Momentum
35
+4.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.3
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,330
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,899.08
Current Value
$6,783.37
Period P&L
$-1,115.70
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+5.95%
Worst Trade
-6.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.32%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$556,036.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,115.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,115.70
Gross Return
-14.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,899.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $5.15 | 1,535 | $7,897.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,535 | $7,621.28 | $7,622.78 |
$-276.30 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $4.96 | 1,536 | $7,618.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $4.81 | 1,536 | $7,384.32 | $7,388.54 |
$-234.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.75 | 1,557 | $7,387.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.88 | 1,557 | $7,598.16 | $7,598.73 |
+$210.20 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.71 | 1,613 | $7,597.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $4.57 | 1,613 | $7,363.35 | $7,364.85 |
$-233.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.66 | 1,580 | $7,362.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.51 | 1,580 | $7,117.90 | $7,119.95 |
$-244.90 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $4.63 | 1,539 | $7,117.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,539 | $7,317.95 | $7,320.02 |
+$200.07 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.70 | 1,556 | $7,316.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.80 | 1,556 | $7,474.56 | $7,477.80 |
+$157.78 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.85 | 1,543 | $7,475.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $4.70 | 1,543 | $7,244.39 | $7,246.35 |
$-231.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $4.78 | 1,515 | $7,242.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 1,515 | $6,862.95 | $6,867.14 |
$-379.20 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.50 | 1,526 | $6,863.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,526 | $7,271.39 | $7,275.50 |
+$408.36 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $5.07 | 1,434 | $7,274.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,434 | $6,825.41 | $6,826.61 |
$-448.89 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $4.93 | 1,383 | $6,825.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $4.97 | 1,383 | $6,866.60 | $6,868.11 |
+$41.49 (+0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.99 | 1,376 | $6,866.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.83 | 1,376 | $6,644.02 | $6,646.02 |
$-222.09 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $4.95 | 1,343 | $6,641.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.05 | 1,343 | $6,775.44 | $6,780.32 |
+$134.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $5.30 | 1,280 | $6,777.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $5.13 | 1,280 | $6,566.02 | $6,568.74 |
$-211.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.95 | 1,326 | $6,567.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,326 | $6,311.76 | $6,312.95 |
$-255.79 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.49 | 1,406 | $6,312.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:45pm ET | $4.59 | 1,406 | $6,446.51 | $6,446.66 |
+$133.71 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.79 | 1,345 | $6,442.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $4.64 | 1,345 | $6,240.80 | $6,245.18 |
$-201.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $4.76 | 1,311 | $6,243.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.89 | 1,311 | $6,404.24 | $6,406.30 |
+$161.12 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $5.37 | 1,193 | $6,401.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $5.48 | 1,193 | $6,537.64 | $6,542.90 |
+$136.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.63 | 1,163 | $6,541.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.45 | 1,163 | $6,332.54 | $6,333.56 |
$-209.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $5.57 | 1,138 | $6,332.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 1,138 | $6,526.43 | $6,527.02 |
+$193.46 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.05 | 1,079 | $6,526.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $6.21 | 1,079 | $6,700.59 | $6,701.60 |
+$174.58 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.01 | 1,114 | $6,700.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $5.82 | 1,114 | $6,483.48 | $6,484.37 |
$-217.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.77 | 1,124 | $6,483.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.59 | 1,124 | $6,288.78 | $6,289.36 |
$-195.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $5.76 | 1,091 | $6,285.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $5.89 | 1,091 | $6,425.44 | $6,429.34 |
+$139.98 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.81 | 1,106 | $6,425.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $5.63 | 1,106 | $6,229.43 | $6,232.91 |
$-196.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.41 | 1,151 | $6,228.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.54 | 1,151 | $6,376.54 | $6,380.93 |
+$148.02 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $6.09 | 1,047 | $6,376.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $6.22 | 1,047 | $6,507.11 | $6,511.81 |
+$130.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $6.24 | 1,042 | $6,507.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.05 | 1,042 | $6,304.00 | $6,308.52 |
$-203.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.43 | 980 | $6,302.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.57 | 980 | $6,438.60 | $6,444.74 |
+$136.22 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $6.39 | 1,007 | $6,439.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $6.54 | 1,007 | $6,584.37 | $6,589.35 |
+$144.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.50 | 1,013 | $6,585.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.64 | 1,013 | $6,726.22 | $6,730.36 |
+$141.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.47 | 1,040 | $6,728.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.65 | 1,040 | $6,914.96 | $6,916.62 |
+$186.26 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.86 | 1,007 | $6,913.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,007 | $6,686.48 | $6,690.05 |
$-226.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.49 | 1,030 | $6,689.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.29 | 1,030 | $6,478.70 | $6,478.90 |
$-211.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.22 | 1,041 | $6,475.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.35 | 1,041 | $6,610.25 | $6,614.13 |
+$135.23 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $6.30 | 1,049 | $6,611.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,049 | $6,923.40 | $6,926.10 |
+$311.97 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,106 | $6,923.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.39 | 1,106 | $7,061.81 | $7,064.68 |
+$138.58 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $5.93 | 1,192 | $7,062.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.05 | 1,192 | $7,205.64 | $7,207.72 |
+$143.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.07 | 1,187 | $7,205.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,187 | $6,780.74 | $6,783.37 |
$-424.35 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,783.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,216.63
Total Return:
-32.17%